저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 완화와 유동성 확대, ISM 부진 종료 기대로 2026년 주식 강세 전망. 비트코인·이더리움은 최근 조정 후 1월 말까지 V자 반등 예상, ETH 7,000~9,000달러, BTC 사상 최고치 회복 전망. 스테이블코인 수요와 기관 참여로 4년 주기 붕괴 주장. 구리/금 비율과 ISM이 BTC 고점 신호라며 아직 고점 전이라 주장. 금의 토큰화 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Price isn't always signal because there's times when there's fundamental developments that are really building. Gold has become not only a story that maintains itself as a store of value, but it's very likely going to be tokenized on a blockchain. So, gold is, you know, joining the blockchain revolution, as well.
Hello and welcome back to the Binance Chiefs. Now joining me, I have a very special guest. We have Tom Lee. Now, Tom is one of the most widely recognized and followed macro strategist on Wall Street. Now, starting his time as the chairman of Bitmain, Tom's joining us for Binance Blockchain Week in just a few days and we are lucky enough to sit down with him and pick his brain on what's moving the market.
So, Tom, first of all, thank you so much for joining us today. How are you doing? Uh I'm good. I'm getting ready for Thanksgiving. We have a lot of people coming over on Thursday and Friday and I I like cooking some going to be cooking a a lot of food the next couple of days. Well, thrilled to have you join us in a few weeks.
Now, jumping straight in, we've got a lot to unpack. First of all, looking at the current landscape, we have seen across the crypto and also the macro landscape rate cuts, inflation's conversation driver, and also plenty of geopolitical headlines this year, leading up to some big market movements. And I'm curious to see as we're looking ahead moving into 2026, what is one of the macro signals that matter the most for crypto for you right now?
Um Yes, when I look ahead at 2026, I think it's a really attractive setup. Um Monetary policy's been tight uh for 3 years now and we're just beginning to get some easing. But, uh we also have a new Fed chair and I think that the the idea is to unleash and improve monetary liquidity. That's a big tailwind.
Um the business cycle has been muted for the last 4 years. You know, the ISM manufacturing, which is a measure of business activity, has been below 50 for 36 months. It's the longest stretch below 50 in the history of the ISM survey. It shows you business confidence has been muted because of inflation and then Fed tightness and then policy uncertainty and tariffs.
But, that all clears next year. And we know that investors are very skeptical because sentiment remains negative and people talk about an AI bubble, but measurable surveys like AAII show people are negative. And that's a contrarian tailwind because when everyone's bearish and they're sitting on a lot of cash, then if the market moves away from them, they're going to chase that.
So, I think that that's a formula for that's very supportive of stocks next year. However, the timing is a little uncertain because we're coming off 3 years of really good gains. So, I think that the first part of next year maybe the market has to digest that a bit, but it should play out really strongly for the full year.
And now moving over into crypto and some of the work that you're doing at Bitmain, people do call you the Michael Saylor of Ethereum. Now, you said that ETH is one of the biggest trades of the next decade. Now, looking at where the markets are behaving today, I'm curious to hear from you, Tom, what makes you so confident rather than dial that for you back?
Um Well, crypto's been disappointing uh the last few months because prices are down a lot. And when prices are down, first of all, we know the mood turns really dark. People get second-guessed, especially cuz price is so important uh as a signal in crypto. And and now people are really worried that this is the start of the 4-year cycle of the downturn, which might last a year.
So, that's at the back of people's minds. But, I would say people should be wary that price isn't always signal because there's times when there's fundamental developments that are really building. And I see this in equity markets all the time while price remains skeptical. I think we're in one of those moments because Bitcoin is becoming has become an institutional asset, so that's very different than the last 10 years.
Uh well, really 15 years for Bitcoin. It's for the first time has a different buyer. And the US government just about to finalize uh the Clarity Act and some action regarding the Bitcoin strategic reserve. That's a brand new buyer. And on Ethereum specifically, there is a huge runway coming because of stablecoins, which is a tokenization of a dollar, but it's just the start because we know that BlackRock and Robinhood and everyone else wants to tokenize everything on the blockchain.
That's a big unlock of activity, which is going to happen regardless of whether prices of Ethereum and Bitcoin aren't going straight up because these are innovations of financial products. So, I I would I'm in the camp that we have not really seen the peak associated with a 4-year cycle. In fact, in some ways because of muted monetary liquidity and all the suppressed animal spirits, the market's been super concentrated this year.
I I think that the best prices are going to be seen next year for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Have we officially waved goodbye to the 4-year cycle? You mentioned the fact that we're all going to see different buyers cuz we have seen institutions enter into the race. Have we waved goodbye to the typical cyclical movements that we have known crypto to be sounding for?
Um It's a good question and the way we'll Well, the way this is ultimately proven is if Bitcoin makes a new high before January end of January, which I believe will happen. Um but but we did talk about that in the most recent Bitmain chairman's message from November that we looked at things that could explain the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin.
In the past, what peaked that explained why Bitcoin was following that cycle. The two things that really explain Bitcoin's price peaks that were not time-related, like not just saying the clock, uh was the copper versus gold price ratio. That makes sense cuz it's industrial activity versus monetary base.
That has always peaked in coincidence with the past peaks of Bitcoin price. But, copper to gold has actually been at a low right now, meaning we actually haven't seen copper-gold peak. Why is that? I think part of it has to do with stablecoins buying so much gold this year. They are the single biggest buyer of gold.
They've driven gold to an all-time high and that means there's a huge move coming in copper. The second is then that will mark the Bitcoin peak. The second is the ISM. ISM has always peaked in coincidence with the Bitcoin price peaks in the past. But, as I mentioned earlier, ISM is now been below 50 for 40 uh almost 40 months, the longest stretch in history.
Until the business cycle and industrial cycle peak, I don't think Bitcoin's going to peak in price. And we will be hearing you speak at Binance Blockchain, which is a a true honor to have you uh join us. Thank you so much on behalf of the Binance team and also the community. We're thrilled to have you speak.
What can our community expect from your keynote and then we also have an AMA from you as well, Tom. Uh well, I I'm really looking forward to uh being at Binance Blockchain Week. It's happening in exactly uh the place you'd want it to, which is Dubai, where there's so much crypto innovation taking place.
Uh but also Dubai is where a lot of AI hyperscaling is going to take place and even a lot of compute. And we know that crypto and AI are going to start to intersect in the agentic world. So, I I think it's an ideal place. I think what people are going to hear from us is really this vision of why crypto is entering a much different phase where it's becoming central to the economy.
Up until now, Bitcoin and Ethereum and altcoins have all been a story of price and it's created a lot of wealth and it's really drawn in a community of dedicated people, but it hasn't created products that have actually worked in the real world. I think that's finally changing. And and that's what makes us the next 5 10 years so exciting.
Absolutely. And you're known, Tom, for your very bold calls. You never shy away from them. So, when it comes to expectations, price predictions, or outlooks from either Bitcoin, Ethereum, or something thing else that you're looking on at the moment, is there anything that you could share with us today?
Uh Yeah, I'd be glad to. The first is, of course, we know we're in the midst of a downturn for crypto prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the ones everyone is watching cuz they're the two largest and Bitcoin, of course, is the flagship. Uh I think we are so close to the bottom here, especially for Ethereum.
I mean, the bottom could be happening this week or within the next 4 days. Um and and from there, we are going to have, I think, a V-shaped recovery because of the liquidity that's coming as the shutdown has ended, the US government shutdown. And also because the Central Bank, I think, is tilting dovish, especially with a potentially new Fed chair.
Um That, I think, should propel prices very strongly into the end of January and that's where I think Ethereum you know, could be 7,000 to 9,000. And I believe Bitcoin is going to recover to past its all-time high by that time. Fantastic. Well, watch this space. And Tom, it just finally and quickly cuz I don't want to take up too much more of your time, but you did mention gold's price performance and also the fact that interestingly gold's price performance could be down to stablecoins buying and accumulating gold.
We do have CZ, Peter Schiff on a digital gold versus Bitcoin debate. Who do you think could possibly take the take the crown on the debate during Binance Week? Uh well, I I I'm always going to root for CZ. So, uh But uh yeah, it's really interesting, you know, gold has become uh not only a story that has shown it maintains itself as a store of value, but it's very likely going to be tokenized on the blockchain.
So, gold is uh you know, joining the blockchain revolution as well. There only such things as free time. Tom, we can't wait to see you next week. Thank you so much for sharing some insights with us today. And uh see you next week. Thank you so much for the time. Yeah, see you next week. Thank you.
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