저자: BellonLee · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥이 반도체 급락(엔비디아 -10%)과 빅테크 약세로 주간 -5%, 고점 대비 약 -12% 조정. 원인은 슈퍼마이크로 실적 발표 침묵 등 실적 우려와 연준 금리 동결 기조에 따른 금리 상승. 화자는 조정을 저가 분할매수 기회로 보고 계좌 평가손실에도 물타기를 지속하며, 유료 텔레그램 멤버십 가입을 권유함. 나스닥 하락이 고점 대비 88%라는 표현은 맥락상 오류 가능성이 있음.
다듬은 글
posted a photo taken with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Ehn at NVIDIA's peak. Hello, this is Bellon Lee, usually can't upload videos on weekends, but today I stayed up almost all night to produce this video because I was worried that you might panic or feel anxious. I will start by revealing my accounts first. My US direct investment account has plummeted to a 52% return and a profit of 92 million won, while my domestic ETF is currently showing a 55% return and a profit of 6.5 million won.
On top of that, including profits from the second account, exchange rate gains, and 12 million won in Bitcoin profits, my total net profit has dropped to 150 million won. Also, everyone, this current correction seems to be about the eighth one for me. And whenever this happens, my account always plummets; as the puddle of this correction dug, about 70 million won in profits has evaporated.
Furthermore, the profit in my US direct investment account has fallen below 100 million won. For me, this is a very important psychological profitability, and it has dropped to 148 million won. Do you see the stock going up, then falling below 100 million won as it encounters this current correction?
So, should I just secure a profit of at least a little and run away from this stock market by abandoning the holding strategy I mentioned to you all? No. My favorite phrase is "It’s actually better." I view any situation optimistically and positively. I have the mindset that this dip is actually an opportunity to buy good, upward-trending investment assets cheaply.
Instead of focusing on the falling obstacles in my account, I am concentrating on split buying of dips—the opportunity I can catch right now and buy cheaply—and I am in a position where I actually feel it is better. This is because the optimal buying timing only arrives when my account enters a bloodbath like this.
It means the market has fallen that much. Furthermore, having waited for this dip for eight months—using the first buying timing of the dip trading method, which involved small-amount split buying at the 20-day moving average—I am thinking it is actually better that a full-scale rebound opportunity has finally arrived.
I think, " Ah, now I can start consolidating properly." It means I am exchanging the pension I have diligently saved for assets cheaply during this dip. Now, I... Somewhere at the peak, you have heard the advice to wait rather than buying heavily right now, or to buy with a small amount if you do buy.
However, this is a zone where comments are posted saying people are "burning in" by buying at the peak, or even claiming that a new era is dawning or that this peak is actually the bottom. Yet, such behavior is absolutely not wrong. Since humans have evolved this way, it is not everyone's fault; it is simply what instinct dictates.
Nevertheless, I have emphasized that to become one of the select few, we must suppress these instincts, restrain our subconscious, and adhere to the principles of "Ojul-eopjeon" (a specific investment strategy). However, most people, driven by instinct, feel compelled to press the buy button at the peak because they believe it will rise further.
Consequently, when the timing for the "pool trading" strategy arrives, they have either already used up all their ammunition or lack the funds to buy, leading to the unfortunate situation where they fail to seize the opportunity despite knowing it is a dip. This is a comment pattern that repeats every time.
As the stock market repeats itself, so do the investor sentiments, and ultimately, only a select few manage to catch the opportunity. If you fall into the category I just described, this will be a truly valuable and painful experience for you. Since you are doing this, please make sure to always set aside a separate cash portion, and I recommend observing the market during the "Ozzle" zone.
Now you understand why you need to wait for a dip, right? It means you can actually scoop up the dip at a much lower price than your purchase price. While establishing theory without a clear mindset is best, I have always emphasized that theory and reality are different. In reality, you have to scoop up at these dips.
Why do the very few successful investors not follow the "no-thinking-without-thinking" method? Why do they only buy when prices are low? It is because in reality, mental factors that cannot be handled in theory account for 90% of the market. Now, if we look at the US stock market yesterday, the Downward Trend actually rose, but the Nasdaq fell by 2%.
You can confirm the reason by looking at the map. If you look closely, the green and red lines are separated. Yes, the reason the Nasdaq fell so sharply yesterday is due to the crash in semiconductors and the decline in Big Tech stocks. In particular, yesterday's semiconductor crash was shocking, and I am urgently producing this video because I am worried you might panic sell.
Nvidia, the leading AI stock, plummeted 10% in a single day, and we can see a bloodbath in the rest of the semiconductor sector as well. Upon looking into what on earth was going on, I found that this situation was sparked by Super Super Micro Computer. Super Micro Computer usually went around boasting about recent positive earnings results before their official announcements, but this time, for some reason, the news that they suddenly kept their mouths shut caused their stock price to plummet by a whopping 23%.
I can't quite find a suitable analogy for this, but if I had to choose the most appropriate one, it would be that when we make a quick profit in the stock market, we go around bragging and showing off to everyone. We say things like, "Hey, TQ is a god! It's money-making! It just goes up!" But what happens when a correction like this comes, or when the 2022 bear market hits?
Do we go around bragging to everyone that we're losing money? No. We suffer in silence alone and try to quietly get through this period somehow, just like Super Micro Computer kept its mouth shut this time. So, the current market is thinking like this: " Ah, ASML and TSMC interpreted the earnings negatively, and since Super Micro Computer has shut its mouth, it means bad results will be announced." That is why the panic selling fueled by such concerns occurred yesterday.
But then, why did Nvidia fall? It is precisely this... Super Microcomputer is a server manufacturer that builds high-efficiency servers using Nvidia chips. Therefore, poor performance by this company naturally leads to concerns regarding Nvidia's earnings. As a result, Nvidia plummeted by a whopping 10%, marking the largest single-day drop since the COVID-19 crash in 2020.
Also, this is just a joke, but you all know the famous CNBC Jim Cramer. He is famous for the fact that when he posts positive news at a peak, those companies start to crash, and when he posts negative news at a bottom, they start to rebound from their lowest points. However, Jim Cramer posted a photo taken with Nvidia CEO Jensen at Nvidia's peak.
I wonder how long this "Jim-Ban" streak will last; he seems to be the very definition of a human indicator. Now, everyone, April is being called one of the worst months for the semiconductor sector. Considering how much it has risen so far, we naturally have to endure this level of downward correction.
Eventually, the reward for this pain will return in the form of profits. And the factor that drove the semiconductor decline further yesterday and caused Big Tech and tech stocks to fall as well was... This is precisely because even Federal Reserve Governor Goolsby, known as an ultra-dove, has turned his back.
Governor Goolsby stated that the fact that inflation has become entrenched and even rebounded for three consecutive months is simply something that cannot be overlooked. He noted that while we might have been able to get through one month, three months is a completely different story. He argued that it is more rational to wait than to move interest rates now, and thus, even the ultra-dovey Goolsby, who had been advocating for rate cuts, has made remarks supporting a rate freeze.
Consequently, international interest rates, which had plummeted yesterday due to war concerns with Israel, have started to rise again, and the dollar continues to strengthen. Naturally, this places a burden on tech and growth stocks. As a result, the Nasdaq has fallen by a whopping 5% over the past week, marking the largest weekly decline since November 2022.
Those who entered the market recently are likely questioning whether holding on is the right move given the weekly drop, but I urge you to look at the long term and act urgently with me. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has already fallen by as much as 88% from its peak. In fact, it can be said that most of this decline occurred within just this week.
It is possible. And if we compare it to the most recent correction last year, there was also an 88% correction followed by a temporary rebound. However, it broke a new low again, and although it rebounded afterward, it broke the low one more time and continued to fall, resulting in a tedious correction market that lasted for three months.
That is why I always advise you not to rush and buy a large amount all at once, but to take a long-term view and buy in installments. This is because there is nothing more painful during a correction or bear market than not having the money to buy. Now, regarding data I heard that you might doubt, is it really trying to find support at the previous high from the end of 2021 and rise?
Before we knew it, we are in a situation where we are close to the previous high if it drops just a little more. And going through this downward correction for three consecutive weeks, it appears to be causing overheating following the 10 consecutive weeks of gains. If you look at the Bullish P/E Index, it has moved out of the overheated zone and is located in the neutral zone.
It rose for 10 consecutive weeks, but it is still there. I told you that where there is a rise, there is a fall. And as the decline began, the new low became higher than the new high, and we call this a "puddle." And in such puddles, we [look for] upward-trending assets There are long- term investors in Woongju accumulating stocks at low prices.
Long-term investors are those who buy stocks cheaply in dips like this, when retail investors panic and dump them. Now, the Nasdaq, having experienced two months of sideways trading followed by a week of sharp declines, has already touched the 120-day moving average, and the Asahi has also dropped below 30.
Currently, we are approaching the final 5th day of split buying for the second buying timing of the "Puddle Trading Method." I plan to decide on the buying timing and how to proceed based on the situation next week, so please make sure to watch next week's video. Also, yesterday, when the worst pessimism emerged—with news of Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran threatening nuclear retaliation—I implemented the split buying strategy using the Puddle Trading Method, and I shared the buying timing in real-time during that worst-case scenario.
And we were able to see a rebound. I believe this is a truly important benefit that you all need right now: scooping up low prices with real-time buying proportions and timing, and quickly taking profits as soon as there is even a slight rebound. If you would like to receive these membership benefits, I will post the sign-up link in the pinned comment, so please sign up and check out Telegram.
You can just enter. Right now, you absolutely must not rush into buying as if it were a 100-meter sprint, holding your breath. This is because a temporary rebound could lead to another decline. Currently, government bond yields are not showing signs of slowing down, and we have n't confirmed any slowdown in inflation either.
In times like these, you must take a long- term view and consolidate your position. You must look far ahead and scoop up the dips. Ultimately, time will resolve the rewards for all this pain and patience, and it will return as significant profits. The stock market has always repeated the same pattern; pessimistic negative news began to arrive, creating temporary downward corrections.
It was the retail investors who were swayed by this. Although the stock market has ultimately overcome all pessimism and continued its upward trend, most retail investors lose money on these upward-trending assets. This is because, instead of holding on and scooping up with the mindset that a dip is actually a good thing, they sell at a loss out of fear that it will fall further.
And buying at the peak out of fear that it will rise further leads to getting stuck again. We, the very few known as Woongjinro, must act in the exact opposite way. I am currently scooping up during this correction and enjoying the last peak. If you stay with me until the end, our assets will surely grow...
It will grow. Let's keep going with O-Zle and Ungju with determination. That's all for today's video. If you found my .
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