저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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6월 초 고용지표 강세로 연준 긴축 우려가 커지며 6월 조정(June swoon)이 올 수 있다고 했으나, 최근 유가 하락과 SpaceX IPO 성공으로 6월 조정은 6월 5일 하루의 급락으로 끝났을 수 있다고 봄. 기업 이익 모멘텀이 강하고 S&P500 향후 7분기 이익 성장률 약 20% 예상, 밸류에이션보다 이익 주도 상승이 건전하다고 주장. 연말 2029년까지 10,000 목표는 유지하며, 올해 목표 8250에 대해서는 강세론자였지만 충분히 강세적이지 못했다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Joining us now to talk what's happening in the broader markets, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. Thank you so much for joining us. Good to see you this morning. So, it's interesting because you had called, I guess, back in May for a June swoon because you were thinking that perhaps the Fed might hike interest rates in July.
Obviously, great news if it holds this morning related to the stray and oil prices. How do you see this as a setup for markets now? And are we clear I mean, June's almost over, but are we clear from a June swoon and are we clear for more upside in in July? It definitely seems that way. As a as a matter of fact, we we suggested there could be a potential for June swoon back on June 3rd.
On June 5th, payroll employment came out a lot stronger than expected. Everybody then concluded maybe the Fed's going to move towards a tightening bias, maybe raise interest rates sooner rather than later. But now with the price of oil coming down, with the SpaceX IPO having been done very very well, maybe the June swoon is what happened in one day back on June 5th when the market actually dropped by over 2 and 1/2%.
How energizing do you think the SpaceX IPO is for the broader market? I mean, there's one argument that this was going to open the door to Anthropic and AI. It's just good news for the spirit of the investor. On the other hand, it is just Elon Musk and he is a particular kind of talent and he has a particular reach and connection with retail investors.
So, how do you see that affecting the market? Well, I'm I'm kind of biased in that regard. I've been talking about the roaring 2020s since August of 2020. It sure feels like the roaring 2020s are are here. I mean, this is the seventh year, not the sixth. This is the seventh year of the roaring 2020s and I've been talking about 10,000 by the end of the decade, by the end of 2029.
Now, I'm kind of like on my way over here. I was like, what am I going to talk about? You know, is 10,000 by the end of the decade? Well, your target is 8250 is your target for the year. Is that still your target 8250 Well, you know, I've been among the bulls and I haven't been bullish enough. I mean, it's really extraordinary.
We we've been in what I call not a FOMO market, but a FEMO market. FEMO meaning fabulous earnings momentum. Earnings have been unbelievably strong. Are you surprised by how strong they've been at because and good morning by the way, it's nice to see you. Futures are soaring. There was a school of thought and I'm going to bring it a little bit back to energy that $4, $4.50 a gallon, $5 gallon gasoline would kill the consumer.
It did not. It did not. Not even close. In fact, you look at the MasterCard and Visa data and I know they track total spending. So, as the price goes up that their numbers are going to go up as well. Zero real indication Correct. that that impacted the consumer in a negative way and we're looking at numbers.
20% expected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies for the next seven quarters, almost two full year full years. It's actually incredible. Yeah. Are you surprised by how strong it is? I am actually and and I mean, even during during the war in March the analyst expectations for earnings just kept going up.
I said, "Didn't they get the war memo that there's some trouble going on in the Middle East?" And they they were right. The economy has has weathered that extremely well. That's been one of our thesis is that you just don't want to you know, ignore and under underestimate the resilience of the US economy.
And the US consumer and I think a lot of that is because of me, people like me. Yeah. Which is a lot of baby boomers. I'm still working for a living, but the baby boomers are retiring with 89 trillion dollars in net worth. It's Right. We're talking about awesome numbers. Yeah, and those are the ones with the assets.
Those are the investors that have benefited most from this market. When you look at earnings, is there a fear that that we are in some kind of earnings bubble, are those earnings themselves sustainable and repeatable into next year? I I would rather have a earnings led melt up than a valuation led melt up.
So, that's what we have right now is So, but you're saying because multiple it's not a expansion of multiples, therefore this is a more healthy route. Well, you know, when the multiples are going up right now they're about 20, 21 and they've been kind of stuck there while what's really led the market up is much better female, much better than expected earnings.
Um there there is a some point that you you want to be very open to the possibility that there is irrational exuberance about earnings on the part of analysts that it's kind of feeding on itself. Uh but no, I mean right now I keep looking at the at the data, looks pretty solid. mean that you think the market is more indifferent to rates?
And so, you know, your case for a possible June swoon was based on a July hike. Yeah. Um regardless of what happens if inflation is more sticky and rates stay higher for longer, do you think the market just won't care as much about that? Or how so how much of an issue or risk are higher rates and sticky inflation going into this
Well, clearly the the Fed always has some impact on on the market and its main immediate impact is through the valuation multiple. If people think the Fed's going to tighten, they're going to ease it, the immediate impact is on valuation. With a lag, it's going to have an impact on the economy and then and then and then on earnings.
I think in the current situation there is everybody's kind of focusing on the fundamentals of the market itself, of the resilience of the of the market. Look, the the Fed not too long ago raised the Fed funds rate from basically zero to 5.5% and we did have a bear market in 2022, but we didn't have a recession.
So, the bear market didn't last very long, it was a great buying opportunity. big reason for that is cuz we had that huge AI launch at the end that just sparked that huge rally. Exactly. And look, the SpaceX deal went flawlessly. I mean, it was $75 billion, which is actually a drop in the bucket in the market's market cap, which is something like $75 trillion.
So, bring it on. We're going to get more IPOs. They're going to be big, and the market looks like it's going to be able to handle it quite well. Great. Well, you've been bullish all along as you mentioned, and you've been right. So, we thank you, and thanks for coming in today. Thank you. Appreciate it.
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