저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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시장 혼란은 과장됐으니 긴장을 풀라는 메시지. 결론: 이번 랠리는 '역사적 순간'이 아니며 큰 변화는 없었다. 휴가 중 시장 공백과 최근 1주일간 주요 이슈 정리. 기업 실적: 달러트리·달러제너럴·브리그스앤스토어 등 실적 호조, 소매업 전반 양호. 반도체·장비주는 실적 부진 속 바닥 기대감으로 급등. 금리: 장기금리 하락은 경기침체 신호가 아니라 미국 금리 수준이 선진국 대비 높아 해외 자금이 유입된 결과로 해석. 연준이 금리를 공격적으로 인하하면 해결된다는 입장. 무역: 미·중 무역협상 관련 소음은 과도하며, 대통령의 협상 발표와 중국 반박 중 누가 맞는지보다 협상 진전 여부가 중요하다고 봄. 소매기업들은 공급업체에 비용을 전가할 수 있어 대체로 수혜. 주가 전망: S&P500은 여름 고점 대비 아직 낮은 수준. 구체적 가격 목표 제시는 없음. 리스크: 연준 정책, 무역전쟁, 경기 둔화 우려는 존재하나 현재로선 과도하게 걱정할 필요 없다는 입장.
다듬은 글
what if the true tale of the tape here is a tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing what if we're agonizing over seemingly chaotic situation that's actually a lot more stable than it looked what if we need to take a page from the stocks ages Cheech and Chong and chill out man maybe it's time we took the pressure off ourselves whether we're stressing about the present speech the federal reserve's and transducer brexit or any other irritant d'azur I think we need to take a step back for a moment from Omaha Lee please and recognize that there's really not that much happen in honor of my 45th high school reunion coming up soon let me invoke my great 8th grade biology teacher mr.
Lawrence who always said Jim don't sweat the program used to say I had a lot of trouble taking that advice while I was away but I'm thinking about it now because I just took a rare break from the market staying with my family at our place in Tuscany it's got zero reception for anything it's the only way to pry me away from the PC the phone whatever and I gotta say it was really an enlightening experience and the time between when I left and when I came back for today's big run the SP in Dallas had rallied a little Essen 2% not a lot not a little while we got some nice lifts today the average is still off their highs from earlier summer now I I didn't check my email while I was away either that's another rarity because the only place with a consistent reception was in my daughter's bedroom and she's even tough for me about not doing work on vacation then then my wife is so I waited and spent all day yesterday going through maybe a thousand emails what earth-shaking developments did I miss well most were concentrated in a couple of days last week first we got to these three blowout quarters Dollar Tree Dollar General Briggs and stores three trade downplays I think that look I knew what was gonna happen because I read Matt boss he's the undisputed axe and retail over JP Morgan told you that was gonna happen they only got a mystify shortfall from old to beauty that the analysts interpreters being kind of a pre-emptive obituary did I say we saw a fabulous run in the semiconductor in the seven doctor equipment names not because they were pretty good quarters but because they recorded wicker quarters and analysts are trying to get ahead of the potential bottom there was the usual relentless decline in interest rates everyone talks about this like it means we're headed for an edible recession wheat bond yields possibly a sign that investors have no confidence in the future normally when rates plummet or weaken the economy's the culprit but this time the economy is an actual ironclad alibi it was the European Central Bank in the billiard room with negative interest rates the Federal Reserve has said our short-term rates much higher than pretty much every other developed country so of course money is flowing from overseas into our bond market pushing down yields it's actually arithmetic people good thing there's an easy solution the Fed just needs to cut rates most certainly more aggressively than they'd like and then we're golden we can stop worrying finally there's the endless Sturm and Drang about the trade war in the new terrace but we've been over this repeatedly the well-run retailers think watch okay can force their suppliers to eat the cost and everybody else well they have to you know everybody else benefits Hey look the retail market is really doing quite well and it's you know what the problems are really in the mall not in the stores last week the president told us that China wanted to negotiate then China said the president was lying and most of the media agree with the Chinese against the president I said it was a stupid thing to worry about who cares who made the call like I told you all that matters was that they got the ball rolling and that's what we saw in today's trade news in other words what did I miss while I was on vacation not much don't sweat the program look I know there are momentous markets Metin with momentous moments in the market or momentous moment but you know what it could be right around the corner but this moment is not one of them
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