저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제는 양호하나 글로벌 리스크와 중앙은행 완화 기대 속에 변동성이 클 것이며, 전술적 대응과 현금 보유가 필요하다는 입장. 1분기 성과: 다우 11%, S&P500 13%, 나스닥 16% 상승. 전 업종 상승, 기술 19%, 부동산 17%, 산업재 17%, 에너지는 유가 32% 상승으로 2002년 이후 최고 출발. 금리 인하 논쟁: 백악관은 50bp 인하를 요구하나, 엘에리언은 미국 경제가 양호해 인하가 필요하지 않다고 봄. 연준 내에서도 올해 인하가 어렵고 금리 인상 가능성도 배제하기 어렵다는 견해가 나옴. 연준의 3월 20일 비둘기파 선회가 시장 기대를 과도하게 키웠다는 평가. 연준 의장 후보 논란: 정치적 영향을 받는 인사가 이사회에 들어오면 연준 신뢰에 부담이 되며, 파월 의장의 정책 조정 난이도가 높아진다고 봄. 글로벌 경기: 중국 PMI는 고무적이나 독일 제조업 지표는 2012년 이후 최악. 독일 증시 강세는 중국 요인과 ECB 완화 기대 때문. 1분기 랠리의 주된 동력은 펀더멘털이 아니라 중앙은행 완화 기대와 유동성. 투자 전략 4가지: 전술적 대응이 전략만큼 중요, 채권은 리스크 완화 수단으로 불충분하며 현금이 더 효과적, 패시브 무분별 투자 지양하고 상향식 포트폴리오 구축, 과거보다 기민하게 대응할 준비. 향후 전망: 변동성이 크며 지난 몇 주 추세를 맹신하지 말 것. 신고가 회복은 아직이며 나스닥은 강하나, 유럽의 친성장 정책 전환이 핵심 변수. 기업: 최근 IPO(리프트) 첫날 거래는 양호했으나 이후 하락. 밸류에이션 부담을 지적.
다듬은 글
when you hear be tij be TIG saying that they think the feds gonna cut rates twice this year does that seem likely in a scenario where China might actually be picking up too so I'm really glad you're gonna have him on it'd be good to hear what the argumentation is you know my basic view is the US economy is in a good spot we're gonna go about two and a half three percent to 3 percent and the problem is outside China's PMI is encouraging but did you see Germany today yeah Germany revised down to the worst numbers since 2012 yet the stock market there in Germany is the biggest answer in the European continent today because they're thinking two things one is China matters and two is the ECB is gonna be even more dovish it's about central banks if you look at what happened in q1 versus what happened in q4 the only significant difference is the central banks got much more dovish and that's what it's been all about okay let's give you a quick update scorecard on where things stand right now because we are kicking off q2 after a very strong start to the year here is the first quarter scorecard Dow up 11% S&P 500 up 13% Nasdaq up 16% now every single sector is higher this year tech is up 19% real estate up 17% industrials also up 17% in the energy sector has been on fire oil having its best start to the year since 2002 with crude up 32% so far this year and and the thing that I can't figure out is if all of that is true why do we need lower interest rates so the reason why people argue we need low interest rates I'm not saying we do need lower interest rate but the argument White House thinks we need lower yeah the argument is things would have been even better and you don't want to decouple the financial sector too much from the real economy and the real economy is not doing as well as these amazing numbers show so as I remember is Larry Kudlow right around a lot in addition to this what we didn't say is fixed income also had a very strong quarter and you know what yields on government bonds came down so all the traditional correlation failed once again to tell you this is about liquidity not fundamentals and that's why the argument comes in for rate cuts I don't think you need them why because I think the US economy's in a good place so Neel Kashkari says you don't need them the White House says you need them better some other board members of the Fed that I think have maybe a different view where do you think they land so and this is the big irony Andrew and this is a problem for mark is going forward the Fed solidified its u-turn on March 20th hoping to get off the stage not to be in the spotlight what do we find now a massive tug of war on the one hand the White House pressing for 50 basis point cos not only do they say cut but they specify how much is your cut on the other hand federal officials saying not only are we unlikely to cut this year but hikes aren't off the table and you don't want that to develop and I think the Fed will be disappointed that it's uber dovish u-turn hasn't gotten off the stage it wants to be off this stage it doesn't want to be on it that's your fed related question obviously there's a nominee that's turned out to be somewhat controversial more than somewhat controversial do you think that his appointment if he were to get appointed would change the dynamic on the board in a meaningful way look it's hard to say but imagine that you are the chair and we're talking about more I should say you imagine that you the chance suddenly you have someone that's viewed from the outside world as being politically influenced that doesn't help you at all I do feel sorry for cher power because not only does he have to navigate this divergence and growth and it's a pretty tricky balance to strike but he also has to do so with an FOMC that's all over the place and you and you think that having somebody in the room this would be like a I mean I've heard people say this be like having Carl Icahn on your board so it will be perceived as such whether it is or not I don't know I don't think it will be but it will be perceived as such and in terms of the stock market going forward you think that the rest of the year is gonna land we're given this I think I think people have to put the first quarter against the fourth word of last year realize that it's going to be incredibly volatile realize that they have to revisit certain things and I tell you the four things that I come away from this is one tactical is as important as being strategic you need a tactical because Marcus will overshoot in both direction to is with we're long bonds and tenure bonds are bonds are not a good risk mitigator cash is a much better with mitigator three is you better build up portfolios from the bottom up don't use passive indiscriminately to do it on on the way down and four is be ready to be much more agile than you've been in the past I think these are four critical things and they they are going to be problematic for long-term investors in particular we tend to take a strategic view and avoid cash avoid being tactical so don't don't trust the trends that we've seen in the last couple of weeks or don't trust me yeah I think actually this is a good time to take some money off the table have some dry powder just like the end of the fourth quarter when the market overshot in the other way again ask yourself what is the big difference between the fourth quarter and the first quarter it is not fundamentals the political situation around the world is just as messy growth is just as challenged as it was before earning that has changed its stride and the big difference is the Fed has changed its perspective and that that that can really matter getting back to the old highs is it done for you yeah I think so I think we're going to clayed in this much bigger waves than we did last or not at the old highs at Nasdaq is really strong today but what do you what you've got and that's on the back up of the China number what you've what you've got to look for is a change in pro-growth policies in Europe in particular that that's the big difference that would be the big the big master different person in terms of just enthusiasm for the markets right now what's your reaction to the way the lift IPO traded on Friday I think that is part of what every single bond offering is flying off the shelf people are putting on risk now because was that it was that a positive development meaning it came out of the gate very well however it did come down throughout I know this was now the papers look at valuations look at valuations would you have a foot lift there three months ago you wouldn't have so levels also matter but it traded well it's weighted well you
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