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So, what do you say to people who say well, it's just a it's a Ponzi scheme because every time Bitcoin goes up, you issue more equity and debt to buy more Bitcoin. It just keeps going and going and going. Yeah, just like developers in Manhattan, every time Manhattan real estate goes up in value, they issue more debt to develop more real estate.
That's why your buildings are so tall in New York City. It's been going on for 350 years. I would call it an economy. Welcome everybody to the daily recap show where we talk about stocks in the financial markets. My name is Chase. If you like this video, please subscribe, hit that notification bell as well as the like button and leave a comment for the algorithm.
Let's get into it. This is the daily heat map of the S&P 500 and US stocks reversed earlier losses on Thursday after Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to direct negotiations with Lebanon, which was seen as supportive of the fragile ceasefire deal that the US struck with Iran. Stocks were red, they turned green here during the day session, but there was definitely still red in the software names.
We'll talk about why that is the case, but software took it on the chin. Infrastructure, Microsoft, Oracle, Palantir, Palo Alto, all of these names down in a very big way. Software application names and information tech names down in a very big big way as well. Very, very ugly price action across the board right there.
And there was some a couple of other sectors did sell as well. Energy kind of in the red as well. Healthcare, some of the health insurers and medical devices, but other than that, it was green through and through. We saw leadership here in semiconductors, consumer discretionary with Amazon. Meta was up 2.7%.
Financials were actually pretty green. The banks, the insurers, capital markets stocks were all very, very green. And utilities were green, industrials were really, really green. Just a very solid day coming off yesterday's price action given the fragility of the overall ceasefire at work right now.
When you look at the market, you can actually see what actually happened right here. You can see that we were down in the S&P 500 as well as the the RTY. We're actually negative here on the day at one point down about half a percentage point. And then we're currently up about 0.6% in the RTY and the S&P 500 at one point we were up about 1% here for these markets.
So, we really did see a nice reversal coming a bit off the highs into the end of the day here, but look, we're looking at a positive day through and through the majority of sectors gaining, gold gaining. And you saw stuff here. The only real sector that was bruising today was IGV along with energy and healthcare.
So, you know, it was really just like software and then some of the defensive names like healthcare, energy because of crude and then tech. Tech was actually deep in the red. You can see that this is at one point, you know, tech was down about 1.2% and now pretty much flat. In fact, actually green. The box is red, but you know, tech is up 0.04%, but inconsequential really.
You can see it was green through and through except for large cap growth that was down 1.3% as well as mid cap growth, but everything else was green. Small caps probably outperformed in aggregate, but we did see large cap core. So, a bit of a probably like a rotation from this to that, but green everywhere else.
Globally, we did see a mixed day as well. You know, North America kind of mixed, Europe kind of mixed, Asia was again mixed. Australia was green, but Africa was very, very red. South America was mixed. Just a mixed day all in all. And you know, that stemmed off a whole bunch of things. Ultimately, the market is still digesting the ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran or the US and Israel and Iran.
Now, Trump did call for two week suspensions in hostilities. He asked for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen while they negotiate. Iran did agree, but we did see a little bit of turbulence because Israel did go ahead and attack Lebanon. Iran said Lebanon is part of the deal and that's why stocks did come off their highs, you know, in yesterday's trade into the start of today.
And there was a lot of fragility. However, what we did see today on Thursday afternoon, Netanyahu issued a statement agreeing to talks with Lebanon raising hopes for resolving a major striking point in the US talks with Iran. So, pretty much we have now a ceasefire deal with Lebanon and Iran and that's why stocks were actually green here today.
You know, we came off those lows into green territory and that's because we're having talks with Lebanon as well. President Trump also came out on NBC and he said he was very optimistic about a peace deal with Iran. The president and senior White House officials called Netanyahu on Wednesday asking Israel to scale back its strikes on Lebanon.
Both the US and Iran had accused the other of breaching the agreement. However, it does look like they are talking as it goes on. I think Israel's strikes were probably a bit preemptive on Lebanon, but we're back in the fold and this is why stocks were green today because we're saying, "Hey, it looks like we could actually get a a ceasefire in aggregate." So, this is why stocks went from red to green today.
Has to do with again the Iran ceasefire and then sort of talks with Lebanon as well. And this is ongoing for the next two weeks. So, I think stocks over the next two weeks will trade positively if we continue to get positive statements from the president and positive statements from Iran and Lebanon regarding what the ceasefire will look like.
I think at this stage, the market is being optimistic and I think we should as well because that's what price action is telling us we should do. It can turn at any time, but as it is right now, long and strong. On the macro front, there was a lot going on. We had some very, very big data. We had very mixed data, some goods and bad, but in aggregate, when you look at it, right?
We're going to talk about GDP first right here. GDP price index and the GDP growth rate. The growth rate came in at 0.5% versus the consensus of 0.7. So, we missed expectations right there. And the price index came in at 3.7% versus the consensus of 3.8%. So, GDP figures not that great. In other words, growth I was a little weaker than we expected in the fourth quarter.
And this is coming from a number we were expecting 4.4%. So, yeah. Not good at all. However, we did get inflation news as well. You can see the PCE data, right? The price index month over month, year over year. That came in at 0.4%, right? That was the expectation and 2.8%. So, you know, if we are to see inflation pressures from oil, we're not seeing it just yet.
At the same time, initial jobless claims came in slightly worse than expected, 219k versus the consensus of 210, but I would call this roughly in line. These These are very volatile numbers especially on a week-to-week basis. And then I think ultimately what the market was also looking at is personal spending.
That came in at 0.5%. The consensus was for 0.5%. That came in largely robust. However, personal income, right, came in at negative 0.1 versus 0.3. So, all in all, we did get some good data. We did get some data that missed expectations, but all in all, I would say the market was probably looking more at the headlines of this versus this and that's why we we saw price action we did today.
That being said, inflation, it doesn't look like it's a problem right now and I think at these numbers, these inflation numbers being worse we probably would have seen stocks probably sit at their lows. Very, very good start here for the market and essentially this is telling us the market is looking through these numbers and towards the geopolitics point of it.
And you know, if we continue to get good news like I said earlier about Israel, Iran, Lebanon, the US, that situation, I think stocks are going to continue to do well regardless of the economic data or even the earnings picture. Now, looking at some market movers here today, Covi was up 5%, right? Very volatile day for Covi here at the $93 mark after it signed a 21 bill to cure compute on the very long term.
This deal goes out to 2032. And this is on top of the 14 billion dollar deal that they already have with Covi, that Meta had with Covi. So, Covi shareholders singing at this and I think this is going to be both really, really well for Covi in aggregate. And then guys, software stocks were down very big today.
I wanted to talk about why that is the case and it was because Michael Burry issued a bearish note, which is now deleted by the way, saying Palantir is losing ground to newer AI entrants such as Anthropic and Open AI. Furthermore, there were also concerns about a new AI model from Anthropic and Meta, which also contributed to the churn in software names.
Anthropic announced on Tuesday a project called Glasswing in attempt to help companies prepare for supercharged hacking capabilities. And Meta also released a new model, which was a really good offering from Meta. And then for everything we saw here today, guys, there was 3,500 advances, 2,600 decliners.
We saw outflows in the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange. Inflows if you measure the gap up with the S&P 500 up about half a percentage point. And market momentum continues to look really, really good. We've captured the shorter term, the longer term, and the medium term moving averages. As long as we hold these, I think stocks will put in higher highs, higher lows, and will probably continue the move into all-time highs.
But let's hop on the charts. Now, we can see we are green across the board here. You know, largely being led by mega caps up about 0.6 nearing 0.7% in gains. The Russell 2000 up there as well. The RSP not quite in the same vein. So, again, really being led by the mega caps, but mid cap, small caps also up.
So, you could really see that, you know, it's green through and through. The market's really coming off its lows, you know, securing and holding the price action above the 200 day. And that is for all of these indices, the Nasdaq 100, the Russell 2000, the RSP, everything in between. Futures looking pretty green as well.
International stocks coming off their lows, but not quite in green territory apart from Middle Eastern stocks. Now, crypto ripping. Bitcoin up 1.5%, Ethereum up 1.4% and you know, these these names are up about two, two and a half percent from their lows. Very similar to what we saw with equities. On the macro front, volatility officially in the teens.
We went from a 30 VIX down to where we are right now, 19. Volatility has been dropping significantly. Yields are falling, the dollar is falling, treasuries are falling, gold and silver up. Again, we've been saying for a while that these are acting like risk assets. Crude is up 5% but still below $100 a barrel and well below the $119 a barrel we saw literally 3 days ago.
Nat gas fell as well. All in all, if crude continues to stay where it is below $100 a barrel, if we continue to if we continue to see ceasefire news, that's good. If we continue to see ships going through the Strait of Hormuz, risk assets are going to continue to move. Now guys, it was absolutely crazy.
If you missed the rally, you probably did. I think this is probably the bottom. We're above the 200-day moving average. If we just go into the past, right? The second we've gotten below and we've gotten a break above the 200-day moving average, we normally retest, but that's kind of it. You know, if we go again, if we go further back all the way here to 2023, you can see we go below, we break above, and then that's it.
You know, we we normally just onward and upward from there all the way, uh, you know, to all-time highs. And that's exactly what we're seeing right now. We've broken above. We're going to probably have some form of a pullback here at one point. We might retest the 200-day like that. We might retest it.
We might not even get that low. We might just even sort of pull back maybe to these lows right here and then go from there. Either way, we've broken above the 200-day moving average. It's very, very rare that we'll go back below it. It can happen, but normally when you see price action like this near all-time highs, we probably go back to all-time highs.
And if we do take a measured move from where we are right now, we are 2.5% away from all-time highs. It's absolutely crazy. You had, you know, just a couple of trading days to buy stocks right here. And that's why I was saying you always want to dollar cost average every 5% that the market falls. You could see we fell just about 10% peak to trough.
You could have had two great buys in here. I was buying all the way down, buying names I like, stuff like Reddit, Lemonade, AXTI. I was also buying crypto. And again, you know, if if you blinked, you definitely missed this rally right here in the market. That being said, I do think we're going higher.
We're not quite in overbought territory as you can see in the S&P 500. And for many of these names, the Nasdaq 100, we're not in overbought territory. The Russell 2000, not quite there. And this is telling us that we probably can go ahead and push into all-time highs before things get a little bit frothy.
That's just how I'm seeing things right now. When you look at these smaller names, right? When you look at stuff like the Russell 2000, it's bouncing off its 200-day. This looks really, really strong. Looking at the RSP, really, really strong. Looking at midcaps, same thing, very, very strong. And when you look at the S&P 500, it looks strong as well.
When you look at the futures, you can see what this bounce looks like right here. Very, very strong stuff from the market in aggregate. And I mean, if you if you were getting short at these lows, if you're getting bearish at these lows, that was definitely the signal to capitulate. Now you guys know what are the names that I definitely do like.
Now even though the S&P 500 was only down 10%, a lot of other names were down significantly more, stuff like Reddit. And you know, it's down big here today, down 4%, 5% after, you know, the software in relation to the software sell-off. And you can see it from its all-time highs that it made just at the start of this year, you know, Meta I'm sorry, Reddit is down 54%.
So, you know, nearly half of its value, a little bit more than half. But I do think this is a great place to go ahead and buy, particularly when we get to the 105 area right here. I like selling the 115 cash secured puts for 10 bucks, $10 to bring your cost basis to 105. I really, really like Reddit at this junction.
I also do like Lemonade, which is selling off today because of software as well. It's really weird. It's officially broken below its 200-day moving average again. It's probably going to go ahead and retest these lows right here. Not really constructive price action, if you ask me, but I'm still very, very bullish on the name.
I'm also bullish on AXTI. We've been talking about the stock for very long while on this channel. Uh, you know, I said don't get too bearish right here on the dilution risk. Um, I said there is a bit of dilution risk, but the market's probably going to look through it because there's still a shareholder vote.
Essentially what the market is telling you right here is that, um, shareholders are going to vote against that, um, ATM offering. We're probably going back to all-time highs right here. The stock was up 19% today. And, you know, we've been holding the stock for a very, very long time now. We've made a ton of money all things considered.
So, those are the individual names I do like, uh, when it comes to stocks. When it comes to crypto, you guys know I like Bitcoin, I like Ethereum. I would say probably, you know, weighting your portfolios your crypto portion of your portfolio 70% of Bitcoin, 30% of Ethereum. That's all you need to hold.
It does look like a bottoming process is being put in right here, especially after making these highs at the 5,000 level for Ethereum and at the 124,000, 25,000 here for Bitcoin. I think we're going to probably definitely put in the low and I think we're going higher from there. Many people say, "What about quantum risk?" you know, Bitcoin and Ethereum are both becoming quantum secure.
Both developers of these chains are securing their their relative cryptocurrency. I think in a couple of months, once we truly have true security, I think, you know, Bitcoin and Ethereum are going to be quantum secure and then this thing is going to absolutely rip back to all-time highs. But bottoms tend to be, you know, bottoms can be a bit of a process, especially in the crypto market.
I mean, if we just zoom out to Bitcoin, right? Let's go on the weekly chart. You can see right here that bottoms, right, tend to be a very, very long while. They tend to be a number of candles and we're still in the early stages of that bottom. So, we could see another 3 months of the sideways price action in the zone and that would just be the opportunity for us to go ahead and buy looking for the all-time highs.
And you guys know, like, if we just take a measured move, right? We take a measured move from like here all the way to these highs and then we bring it sort of like to here, right? It looks very, very similar. We could see that the bottom process will probably take us out to maybe even sometime like June 2027.
It could be that long, but ultimately the bottom will be put in here October 2026. This will be the final bottom. The sideways price action probably continue into 2027, but at this point you're going from 64,000 to the highs of 78,000. You know, that's a 14, 15% gain. And then from there, you're having an absolute ripper of a rally all the way breaking these all-time highs.
So, I would say between now and October, it is the time to accumulate before we go on a 3, 4-year run here for Bitcoin. I know you might be like, "Oh, after 2027." But that's the thing, these are long duration assets. You want to be holding these for 10, 15 years plus and you'll get exceptional returns that far exceed the S&P 500.
Now looking at gold, we've been saying this for a while looking at the daily chart. The place to buy is the 4,400 level and we're starting to see that, but I think we're going to continue to see sideways price action for gold. We're going to see something like this over the next couple of months. I think we're going to see something very similar here for silver.
As long as we're above the 200-day moving average, I'm bullish on commodities and I think they should do very, very well. I'm now bearish on crude and I'm I was bearish at the top right here. And I do think that, you know, if we go ahead, uh, and move lower, that's probably something that will happen, especially if peace talks continue in the right vein.
But crude is your proxy for the risk assets and risk assets look really, really good. This was the place to buy. Earnings continue to move up. I think we're going to go ahead and break above these all-time highs. I think 7,700 is on the cards. I think the bottom's in and I think you want to continue to buy risk assets, S&P 500, US stocks in particular, looking ahead. Stocks look bullish. Don't fight the trend. The trend is your friend.
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