저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Kevin이 Peloton(PTON)에 50만 달러를 투자했다고 밝히며, Peloton이 Precor 인수로 상업용 피트니스 시장에 진출할 것이므로 월가 컨센서스가 과소평가하고 있다고 주장. 웹사이트 트래픽 상승, 낮은 이탈률(월 0.74%), 마케팅 비용 억제 등을 근거로 제시. 2~3년 내 두 배 상승 가능성을 언급하며 장기 보유 의견을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here i am so excited to announce that i have made a 500 000 contrarian bet into a stock that when you hear about it you might think wow why why why would you buy that like we're leaving the pandemic that's stay at home like no that's stupid well i don't think it is and that's because i think it is a contrarian bat that has been oversold by wall street and has some serious legs folks it is peloton yes peloton i'll explain why it might not be why you think has little to do with that silly little bike that you hear about at home it's got a lot more to do with what else is happening but here you go folks uh i bought 4 800 shares of peloton for 104 dollars and 31 cents on march 26th i talked to course members about this at length that day we analyzed it in depth we talked about it in depth uh we talked about buying it talked about why we thought it was oversold i haven't gotten a chance to do a video on the channel yet so here it is here's my video on the channel about it so i'm super excited about peloton mostly and this is the big one for me mostly because of two factors which i know i said big one but it's really two factors factor number one they're acquisition folks of pre-core anytime you go to a high-end gym or hotel you see pre-core equipment this stuff is high quality equipment they've got high quality products but they don't have that peloton software yet right that peloton screen with the technology the interactiveness with trainers or works they don't have that but they've got the quality machines from ellipticals to weight training to rowers to various different kinds of products that paluton just doesn't have right now i mean i mean even to the fact of going to uh a high quality look at this 1200 1200 for a bench but they actually sell these things and i'll tell you why they sell these things and it's the big reason well my first big reason as to why i really like peloton buying precor so peloton prides itself on quality and i have two bikes in my garage i have a peloton bike in my garage and i have which was like 20 300 bucks or whatever and i have this 500 bike that i got from china in the garage as well it doesn't have a monitor it just has a little ipad stand which i kind of like because then i can just like write things and stuff which i can't do in the peloton screen i really like that 500 bike but guess what really matters long term quality for commercial applications and guess who's going to be spending money to get people coming back to gyms and hotels gyms in hotels gyms in hotels my guests are going to spend a ton of money to try to attract people to come back to gyms and hotels rather than work out at home there is no doubt in my mind that peloton is going to get into the commercial product space with high quality pre-core manufacturing on top of peloton screen their monitor their interactiveness peloton fitness mats because they just acquired a smart mat company and peloton fitness watches because they just acquired a fitness watch all of these can integrate into the training that paluton obviously does with their monitors this is really good but combine this with the commercialization of their products for hotels and gyms which will be coming in the future we don't know that for sure yet but we expect peloton because of their acquisition with pre-core and they say it in their latest report they mentioned we want to get into commercial products they don't have any commercial products right now we expect peloton to get into interactive strength training in addition to cardio which is a huge huge potential vertical stress strength training which they don't even touch right now they just do cardio right right now they're just doing the treadmill and the bike and get into strength training all the doors open up precor being a high quality leader in that field is a big big big big plus for peloton which also has a reputation for high quality now all of a sudden you start getting smart gyms and smart gyms inside of hotels you create an endless opportunity for peloton to be a way for gyms and hotels to attract people back during our next our recovery over the next few years that's going to take some time peloton does not have any kind of commercial products right now they do not have strength training products right now but it's because of this reason right here this sort of trojan horse that peloton is doing i think peloton is highly undervalued right now based on wall street consensus estimates wall street trades for about 66 times forward price to earnings and that is based on wall street's consensus estimates for 2024 earnings but wall street also assumes that peloton's growth is going to decline from 34 to just 23 to 22 in 23 to 24.
this in my opinion totally misses the commercialization boom that's rationale number one for throwing half a million dollars into a contrarian bet like peloton because we generally think of peloton to stay at home i see peloton as the recovery for gyms and hotels over the next few years i think it's going to be a little hard for hotels and gyms to make really big investments anyway coming right out of the pandemic so it's going to be a few years but in a few years as gyms and hotels really want to start growing again after they get back onto their footing i think smart fitness equipment is going to be their big trojan horse to get people to come back and peloton stands to be a massive beneficiary of making gyms more high quality and getting higher quality well like overall the products of quality like the product quality up but then also introducing new services and gyms like smart gym equipment that you can't really access at home unless you have a ton of money i mean the peloton bike and the peloton tread the treadmill are expensive for what they are but if you could get that quality at a gym that'd be a gym i'd be interested in going to all right now the second thing that i really like about peloton is the pandemic really accelerated their ability to market without marketing and that's really just the viral nature of uh peloton and what we've seen during the pandemic and that persists like nobody's gonna think in in a year or two my expectation obviously could be wrong right nobody in my opinion is going to think in a year or two that peloton is all of a sudden low quality right so if a gym comes out and says new partnership with peloton gym equipment blah blah blah we have feature peloton equipment here people who can't afford peloton are going to want that experience and going to a gym that has that kind of equipment it's going to be very desirable and if one gym does it other gyms are going to have to compete so you'll see if let's say an la fitness starts you'll see the 24 24-hour fitness come in my expectation okay now the the second thing that i really wanted to hit on was was revenue so uh the revenue and advertising so take a look at this peloton's revenue doubled more than doubled from 2019 to 2020.
this makes sense we were in a pandemic and so did their subscription revenue their subscription revenue almost 3x but take a look at this their sales and marketing expenses barely went up their sales and marketing expenses went up from 160 million to 177 million this is barely barely a move up uh and that's really because they didn't need to spend more money on marketing they didn't need to spend as much money on commissions at malls to help people sell this product the product was selling itself in fact peloton has stated in this report that they purposely pulled back on advertising expenses because of supply chain issues because they're so overbooked they have so many sales now you might be thinking but come on kevin this is going to decline like the sales are going to go down it's a stayed home play why would you buy this now well that was a suspicion of mine at first as well but what i did is i pulled up the website rankings for this company just to kind of see all right what's what are our analytics looking like and i compared them to other companies as well whether it was nordictrack or some of the other companies peloton had a very unique trend going for it and it's very odd to think that peloton would have this trend given that if it's true if we're reopening and people are less interested in peloton we would expect to see peloton's website data fall their website ranked to fall but take a look at what's actually happening at peloton the year started right here january 2021 and the website traffic for peloton has never been higher this right here is 2021.
peloton's website rankings are not only increasing you can see we've had you know we've had some increasing right here we had a little bit of a flat period here in march and now we're increasing again right here going into april this is very unique given that we are now way higher than where we were in 2020 during the you know the big bulk of the pandemic maybe it's this is a symptom of people having stimulus checks that they want to spend on fitness equipment and maybe and this is another argument maybe people realize like hey look it's time to work out again you know kovid was a fun break from working out and really met the kovid 19 and maybe it's time to uh exercise again like i'm not immune to that either like i get it so uh you know peloton has potentially attractive staying power as a stock that in my opinion has been sold off as as a stay-at-home play that's not in anymore and i think wall street's really missing the boat on it so those are a couple of the reasons that i really like this but the other thing about peloton one of the complaints that i generally see when people talk about peloton uh or when people hear me talk about peloton one of the complaints is i wrote it down here ah yeah somebody mentioned that nobody uses their peloton equipment anymore in the future that it becomes a clothing rack somebody said uh in that they are basically products that uh flood the market of uh what's it called like craigslist and ebay and people uh just uh just aren't interested in the product anymore uh and yeah that might be true but the beautiful thing is peloton's churn is very very low peloton's churn on a monthly basis is point seven four percent which if i annualize that well it comes out to about eight point six percent which they're growing at a way faster clip than that they're growing you know four times that right now uh but the thing about peloton gym equipment is this subscription model is very very sticky what that means is when people think about oh i should cancel my monthly subscription because i haven't used my peloton in six months they're actually in a weird way unlikely to cancel it because it's almost like they're agreeing to failure or admitting to failure wow i'm canceling my subscription wow i'm such a bomb i said i'd use this and i don't and that feeling that i'll get back to it soon is exactly how the gym industry makes a lot of money and i would expect the same will end up being true for peloton in the long run we'll see so when you now combine some of these factors like fitness watch fitness map potential strength training equipment new cardio equipment like rowers or ellipticals you combine it with the fact that maybe people want to exercise more going into a recovery and a reopening in addition to the fact that in the future gyms and hotels are going to be interested in investing more in creating attractive reasons for people to go to their gym or hotel rather than go to an airbnb or rather than have a home gym why potentially go to a home gym or go to an airbnb when you could go to a real gym or a hotel gym and experience some high quality smart fitness training equipment this in my opinion is going to be a huge opportunity for hotels and gyms wall street is blind to it peloton has brand established and their website analytics are going up to where they do not necessarily have to be worried about advertising more they're growing like crazy and peloton has established itself as the apple of fitness it is a quality brand folks peloton for me is a big long bet my expectation is there's no reason why peloton could not double in the next two to three years certainly within the next five years but between you and me i think it'll happen sooner i'm not looking to trade on peloton peloton's a long buy and hold for me but i've got a big fat position in peloton now and i'm really excited about it thank you so much for watching this folks uh if you want a heads up on some of my big heavy buys before i make them with that coupon code that's available down below gets you in on those alerts and my high conviction analysis before i make those big purchases when i make those big purchases and before i'm able to release these videos on youtube ]
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