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he is admired by retail investors and respected by venture investors but these days almost everyone who writes checks is paying attention to chamath paliyapitya whose star has been rising since the beginning of his career isn't getting investment advice from chamath paliyapidia for 2022 it's the finest advice you could get will the market crash and if so how will it affect you hey folks welcome back to the channel in today's video we're going to explain why chamat polyapedia thinks markets are going to crash his take on this and how it will affect the investors before we get into the video don't forget to drop a like on this video and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already make sure that the post notifications are turned on so that you never miss a video from us without further ado let's dive in polyapidia whose family immigrated to canada as refugees has been disrupting the status quo in practically everything he touches for the past 20 years he rose through the ranks at aol to become the company's youngest vice president chalmut believes that the conflict will be unlike any other and that it will have a huge influence on investors pension funds and cryptocurrencies the abolition of traditional trade and financial partnerships between two bodies are referred to as economic sanctions sanctions can be wide such as the united states long-standing trade embargo against cuba or they can be narrow prohibiting dealings with certain businesses groups or individuals trade restrictions travel bans asset freezes and arms embargoes are all examples of this ever since the terrorist attack on 911 targeted sanctions have become more widely employed around the world the united states has launched a sanctioned package aimed at russia's central bank in recent weeks the european union adopted a similar approach the central bank of russia will be unable to convert 643 billion dollars in assets stored in u.s dollars and euros into their national currency rubles as a result of the sanctions russia is also unable to access its national wealth fund which serves as an emergency sovereign wealth fund furthermore the us and eu have announced that all russian banks will be shut off from swift with the exception of those involved in the energy sector swift is the world's largest network for initiating international payments one of the most severe economic acts that may be done is to execute russian banks from swift prior to this the us and eu had chosen a cautious approach to sanction russia because of the close economic ties between russia and the eu policymakers were hesitant to impose harsh sanctions on russia however in this fast-moving conflict a complete ban on swift transactions for russian banks now appears to be a possibility many fear that because of the severity of the sanctions placed on russia putin will be unable to quit the invasion without losing face this implies that if he believes he has no other options he may lash out in an unpredictable manner as a result it may be advantageous for the us and its allies to de-escalate the conflict allowing putin to do so this is also known as detente and that means that the west and russia may reach an agreement and end the war but sanctions must first be enforced to push putin to de-escalate the conflict this is chamat's opinion and would be ideal as an outcome one can fight an economic battle and an economic conflict without it turning into a military conflict and the reason is because of what happened in the last 40 to 50 years the most important infrastructure in the world whether we like it or not is financial infrastructure right because as you may be aware energy infrastructure is more national but the financial infrastructure is a truly global and universal asset and what has happened is that blacklisting a country or an entity from these organizations and networks can a country which is why we believe people underestimate the severity of economic sanctions when done correctly because they were concerned that such sanctions would cause the eu economies to implode measures to restrict russia's energy exports are now not in place as a result outside of russia and western enterprises with exposure to russia the economic impact of the recently proposed sanctions will be negligible the economic consequences of the conflict will be felt most accurately in ukraine and russia both of which are expected to suffer severe recessions this year energy supply chain and trade shocks have afflicted the eu and will continue to do so another effect is on the already divisive worldwide transition to renewable energy sources tesla's global statement is to help the world make the transition to sustainable energy as quickly as possible elon musk however felt forced to tweet on march 5th owing to the ukraine conflict hate to say it but we need to increase oil and gas output immediately extraordinary times demand extraordinary measures elon went on to state that his idea were as follows increased oil and gas production is vital in the short future or people all across the world will face severe hardship this isn't a financial issue it's a matter of having enough energy to sustain civilization this is an unexpected but rational statement that demonstrates how russia's invasion will have worldwide economic consequences and will dominate discussions about energy solutions chama talked about how war has had a good impact on the crypto market and the us dollar according to him conventional wisdom is that the war in ukraine is the crypto boon we've all been waiting for and that the us dollar is on its last legs but in reality bitcoin and the us dollar are both winning right now when bitcoin falls other cryptos fall more when u.s assets fall other non-us denominated assets and currencies get smoked bitcoin originally soared following the invasion but by the time chamat's tweet was posted it had returned to pre-invasion levels and was continuing to decline when it comes to assets denominated in u.s dollars chamath is referencing the dollar's resilience foreign exchange reserves are made up of cash and foreign currencies and interest-bearing government bonds these interest payments are made in the foreign currency of the borrower government bonds in the united states for example pay interest in dollars but government bonds in europe pay interest in euros the united states holds over 62 percent of all foreign exchange reserves in the world because the u.s dollar is the world's reserve currency it's used in the great majority of international transactions even when the us is not a party to the transaction the us dollar is also used in the majority of commodity markets because the us government backs the dollar it is regarded as a reserve currency around the world it is also reasonably stable so trading partners don't have to worry about the value of their payments shifting substantially holders of us government bonds will likewise have the minimal danger of the us government defaulting on bond interest payments to put this into perspective u.s dollars account for 58 of all international bank loans that is not the case with russian national money in the long run however the ukraine war will prove to be a huge and net beneficial event for crypto adoption and market explosion chamat believes that if the war causes a recession within the next year it will be bullish for crypto and growth stocks since the federal reserve will most likely need to modify the policy to impose a more accommodative monetary path chalmette feels that the possibility of a u.s recession is increasing if asked about the possibility of pension funds losing value due to losses in the market value of russian enterprises charmat said that he does not see this as a problem he rejected the manner as a red herring implying that it was merely a decision the reason it's a red herring is that the global total market cap of all of these businesses is meaningfully different than the amount of total capex that these guys represent and inasmuch as you are gonna take the equity values of certain of these companies to zero it's in the grand scheme of things not that much equity value in the last two years we learned what governments are willing to do when you have supply shots and demand shocks and what they do is they turn on the money printer and they create enormous amounts of stimulus quantitative easing or qe is the term used nowadays it's what robert kiyosaki referred to as creating money out of thin air the central bank accomplishes this by purchasing long-term securities from banks and placing them on the asset side of their balance sheet while creating liabilities on the debit side of the equation as a result banks are able to lend money to consumers and investors we're at the beginning of the beginning despite the fact that chamath believes we are in a tough spot he sees a way out what do you think about all this do let us know in the comments section below because we'd love to hear from you all also consider subscribing to our channel for more related content like this and turn on post notifications so you don't miss out on any other future uploads that's all for today guys we hope you enjoyed this video and if you did make sure you smash that like button and we'll meet again in the very next one
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