저자: ElonMusk · 외국인
요약 보기
머스크는 약 5년 내 AI가 인간 지능을 넘을 것이며 10년 내 휴머노이드 로봇과 결합해 '준무한 경제'와 풍요가 올 것이라 주장. 돈의 의미가 줄어들 수 있다고 함. AI 위험(10~20% 치명 확률)은 여전히 존재한다고 인정하나 개발 중단은 불가능하다고 봄. 중국은 전력 우위로 AI 경쟁에서 앞설 가능성이 크다고 언급. 정치적으로는 유럽 이민 문제를 강하게 주장. 투자 종목에 대한 직접적 가격 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Elon Musk, thank you for joined me on Insider. Thank you for that. invited us here, on the Tesla Giga. Hmm, really hard to imagine you, not using highest degrees comparison. I have on mind what you are doing for construction of the future, probably more than anyone from currently alive. I generally have a lot I am building.
I You build a lot. Instinctive A builder, I think. I just like something build. You are like that, but you you are building, I have mind you you know, running and build things for days. You run and build many things. You were pioneer electric vehicles. You made a revolution in space traveling. Now in you have an advanced model AI, humanoid work.
Can we to start our conversation with what you will combine all of this together? Yes. Tell me what it will be like the world, say, in 10 years, if you You will succeed. 10 years. So, it is about about the year 2036. Yes. I hope we both We will be there. I hope so. Yes. we we can, we can Well, probably most likely, we we will...it's hard to imagine a future where there is no huge, overwhelming majority artificial intelligence.
That is, I expect that in 10 years artificial intelligence will be significantly greater than the amount human intelligence, much larger. Actually, I think AI may exceed the amount human intelligence in about five years. Exactly 5 years. Approximately 5 years—that is my guess. Hmm, so it won't actually happen nothing that AI couldn't do would do better than people, except perhaps in order to be a person.
If we talk about more prosaic things. What will life be like? Most likely the result is an era amazing abundance where everyone can have everything that only will think. This, this can to sound absurd, but, well, here we are in 2026 year. Let's see where we will be in 2036. Of course, there are things that can this to hinder, such as massive global thermonuclear conflict or something similar.
But assuming that Third World War There will be no war, I think. we are heading towards an era amazing abundance . So, this, I think, message of optimism and excitement future. So, let's talk. about wealth in a moment, but prosaic question: how are yours companies are gathering make money? For when you were looking at SpaceX IPO prospectus, it seemed that the majority income will come from AI, actually, from Grok.
This will not happen. transportation cargo into space, as SpaceX is doing it now. Than will deal with your companies in 10 years and how they will they make money? Well, you can. to consider the economy like uh, digital and physical intelligence. So, what is now in us very quickly is developing, it is digital intelligence.
Obviously, with artificial intellect, it seems, almost every week new ones appear breakthroughs. He can to do amazing things things that I couldn't do it earlier. But he is still somewhat limited by digital sphere. He doesn't have executive mechanisms. You need these mechanisms in the form of humanoid robotics.
You need, in fact, many bots if short. You need many bots. And then you will be able to go from the intellect that manifests itself only in digit, before change the physical world. You ask what it is economy? Economy —this is production goods and provision services. And if you have a huge number robots from huge digital with intelligence, you you get a kind of quasi-infinite economy.
So, this is indeed, the future will be very, very to differ from past. There is no such analogies or metaphors, which, in my opinion, would illustrated the scale of the changes we we are going to feel. I I understand this, and I I also try understand how this world will look like. But in a sense you have this will be enough incredible.
Yes, we are too, there are certain risks. We will move on. to them. We will move on. to them. But regarding of how it was then you earn money, because in the end people buy your shares, because they expect that you will earn. I will do one more. foresight. Money will not matter in 2036. Are you looking at mine?
interview with Elon Mask. If you want to get early access to other interviews, subscribe to The Economist by clicking link above. Now let's go back to interview. I am not I am sure that people who bought your shares , think that money is not will have significance in 2036. Why do you need it? money?
You need money for goods and services, isn't that right? You need money, obviously for food, housing, transportation, entertainment. Well, if all of this yes a lot of work and AI provides more goods and services than any person could would consume. Why then you have money? But you create these robots.
Isn't it, and then you need Will there be money? Of course. Are you selling these? robots? You are selling humanoid robots or produce goods and services through robots that Are you in charge? Introducing Levi Strap. I think, I think, I would, probably, there was...There would be manifestation vanity to think that I can control super genius AI, which is much smarter than me.
I I think we can and must try make sure that AI has good values, that he cares about humanity and what it wants, so that we can be happy and flourished. Um, I I think that, probably...mine biological neural the network tells me, what is most important for AI security is maximum search truth and curiosity.
If this yes, I think so will contribute to the development humanity. So let's Let's break this down. You sure that people will cease control situation in 10 years? I think this is unlikely. Hmm, yes. just like what if difference in intelligence between AI and humans much larger than between AI and chimpanzees, It's hard to imagine that chimpanzees will the main ones.
I really like it. damage. And we, in fact, evolutionary form chimpanzee. So not so We have been rocking for a long time. trees and ate bananas in the jungle. And we still are We eat bananas, by the way. Let's eat. And yet, you know, sometimes we swing too on the trees. Yes, we sometimes swinging on trees.
This is enough. fun. This is a kind of reminder about past. For the sake of the elderly times, swing on trees from time to time. You know, it's probably worth it. swing more often trees. I'm fighting for institution, it is much more fun than people think. I agree with you. I I definitely agree with you.
regarding swinging on trees. I love swing on trees, but I am amazed, listening to you now, because I listened to a lot things that you talked during years. And 10 years ago you were on the podcast. It seems with Neil Degrasse Tyson, and you said that What scares you the most? fast recursive AI self-improvement .
Yes. And you said, and This really surprised me. that we will only domestic Labradors, in at best. Now you see... They are all quite happy creatures. It my experience. But in 2023 you asked to slow down development of AI, because Did it bother you? Well, I signed up for this, you know, as one of many, about 500 people.
I was just, you know, one of many signatures under this thing. But, but, it seems, even last year you said, it seems , on the Ted podcast Cruz, which is 10–20% the probability that killer robots will destroy humanity. Yes. Then you sounded worried. Now you give up. very calm about this. You changed your opinion?
I still think there is, I still think that there are risks, related to AI and robots. This is not zero. Hmm, I guess I've reached to my kind, philosophical conclusion—watch optimistic about things. Um, I, I don't see. no way actually stop this incredible momentum for AI development and robots. Um, and Sometimes I think: well, maybe even if there was a "stop" button, we probably shouldn't it would be to press it, because most likely the result is incredible abundance for everyone.
I actually thought so. I was struck by what now you seem to decided that this inevitably. We will to hope for the best and move on. Yes. So, yes, almost. Yes. Come on, come on enjoy I will travel—that is, I I think my philosophy at the moment, therefore which, to be honest, it seems that there is simply relentless progress in AI development and robots that, um...
Even if I wanted to stop this, I wouldn't could. Ahem, Do you think that everything there is still 10–20% the probability that killer robots will mean the end humanity? This is a high indicator, as they say. Well, in the long run in the future we all We will die, of course. Ahem, you know, um, I mean, I I mean...
According to standard model physics, end The universe is um, long, boring, its own kind, liquid gray soup from the gradual cooling, um, what means a kind of heat death The universe, as it is called. So now, if heat death The universe is factual the result of our reality, then everything really boils down to travel, because the point The destination is terrible.
. 10 years is not very... Yes, I understand that. But this may be a long one way, and you, in fact, you say: very long way. If there is 10–20% probabilities for 10 years old, would you sit in one of its missiles, if we knew there was 10–20% chances that she explode and kill you? Yes. But let's assume, you can't do anything about it to do this.
Good, I think the only thing we we can try to do, this minimize probability of bad result. Hmm, but try to stop intelligence and robots... Um...I mean, for a long time I... refused to take participation in AI or, you know, created by OpenAI as a kind of the counterweight to Google, so that at that time they, actually, had monopoly on AI.
Hmm, ah then Anthropic separated from OpenAI, and, if anything, it seems my actions only accelerated development of AI. You know, I did not strive accelerate AI, but the creation of OpenAI, and then separation from him Anthropic led to the fact that Anthropic is now the leader in the field of AI. Ahem.
I have meaning that these actions actually caused side effects that accelerated development AI, which I don't know at all had the intention. So, it seems that everyone paths lead to AI acceleration. Ago I thought, "Okay, you can just to be upset about this or join "club, probably." Well, you definitely are.
joined the club. Yes. You definitely joined. to the club, but you can't beat them —join in, you know. Well, you certainly are. did it and very successfully, but what about minimizing risks? After all, there are many others company leaders- model developers promote various ways to reduce risks. Um, you know, just last week Demis spoke from proposal regarding private-public regulator.
Ahem, I think you said, what a good start a point for discussion. Do you think you should worth working on more active, to implement something to control risks, Do you think so? impossible? My recommendation to Demis, because we talked to him a few hours before the way he published his article, consisted of because first of all, that we could do— this is so that leading AI- companies at least met or had some calls once every few weeks, to discuss any what are the security issues.
And so that before the release breakthrough model a new level, which much smarter than everything that exists now, in competing companies there was a possibility test it on subject of harmful effects and recommend a pause to solve these security problems. I I think this is the easy one and quick step that we we can do, and with sometimes he can to grow into something more.
Um, but this, I I think it would be smart move. But why are you still doing this? didn't you do it? I have on I mean, you're out there somewhere. five, right? Well, everyone know your names. Dario, Demis, Sam. That is, you are not very Do you like one? one. Yes. But you everyone, all of you, I have mind you all too You compete, right?
You all want to be first. Yes. But right here, I I think competitors can force one one to be honest. That is, I believe that to an official who is not has deep technical knowledge and not working on the front lines AI, pretty hard to decide whether it is worth it to release something or not. However, competitors, I I think they can, you know, if you give them a week or two on checking the new models, indicate problems, and in all there will be competitors incentive to keep others in honesty.
Is there anything between you? enough trust to to do this? You are not love each other too much one. Is it Sam? Altman wouldn't think so, that you will steal everything his ideas if you do Will you do it? Well, we we are only talking about week. Honestly , I think that enough even one week for private testing.
This is not AI transfer. This is just testing. Just testing. You Did they offer this? Yes, simply test via API or something like that. I think that would be a good idea. Ahem. But did you offer it? I mean, you could to offer this Demis. And I think I am too I'll talk about it with Dario. Ahem. Of course, there are also very competent Chinese AI- companies, there are several of them, and they are very good.
New Kimi model. Kimi K3. Yes. Yes, that came out last week, she is almost as good as Fable, Yes? So. Well, I think so. realistic Fable everything there is still the most smart model. I think anyone realistically said I wish that was the case, but Model Kimi is getting pretty close to Fable. Anthropic had Mythos, based on which Fable was created.
It seems he was ready in February. So, they have, they they call it something otherwise, I don't sure how exactly, maybe Mythos 2 or Fable 6, or something much better than what was in February. Almost certainly , what is there. Not almost surely, they are right have it now. So I I think they could release it anyway What a moment.
Before we move on to the releases that you thinking about Chinese models and their geopolitical aspect? Are you worried? that the Chinese catch up and rush forward, considering that Chinese AI companies show such results from relatively small computational capacities? It seems as if they had more capacities, there is a high the probability that they would become leaders, and after all, they probably, them will receive.
So, they will become leaders. There is a large the probability that in at some point they they will become. Can to say that the restrictions for AI—this is essentially electricity and AI- chips. And for the physical AI—robots. In China there are also very good ones companies with production of robots.
In fact, they have are even held sports robots. I don't know whether Did you see something? similar. Yes, I saw it. I saw them, When was the last time you were there? Beijing. I saw those robots. Well, they have it there. something like boxing duel or fight between with robots, that's enough entertaining.
I saw video where work They beat off the head, but he continued to fight even without her . It looked pretty funny. But I think that robot battles will be enough an interesting spectacle. Ahem . But simple. So, China is very strong in robotics, very strong in digital AI , and if you look at production electricity, then AI depends on what factor is restrictive—chips or electricity.
In China a lot more electricity than in United States. In fact, China already produces more electricity than USA, Europe and India taken together, and, for my predictions, will reach a level that four times greater than American, that about proportional to population size. What should I do about this?
the US government? That is, probably a little anxious when authoritarian regime significantly ahead of the most powerful technology, and it is obvious that the US government tries for with help export control and other events to contain China. How are you? Do you think they should? to prohibit using, for example, K3, Qwen?
Well, the US government can to pass a law that prohibits American companies use Chinese models, but they can't to prohibit the rest to use the world them. Hmm, well, that's not true, as if the US government has power over China or the rest of the world. Ahem. Do you think they should be banned American companies use them?
Now they are talking about it conversations, right? I don't think so. will help. Um, and this is not will stop China from to become a leader in the field of AI. In fact, for digital intelligence it all comes down to that how much do you have computational capacity for AI? Well, how many do you have?
chips and how many do you have energy? How many do you have? you electricity? Um, so...I think so. now restrictions actually a little depends more on power supply and cooling than from AI chips, because nutritional needs for AI chips very, very high. We still let's talk about water needs, but actually water use for AI is insignificant, almost zero.
Ahem, but the demand for electricity very high. That's why you think about orbital data centers, probably, that's it restriction for any which AI chips, which ones not launched in China —this is electricity, feeding, cooling, electrical equipment etc. Tempo chip production for AI exceed connection rates new capacities electricity in China.
Um, outside of China. Outside China. Of course. Yes. Um, and since the US, you know, banned export of the latest of AI chips to China. Hmm, China for sure feels to some extent chip shortage. So, but they become lot more effective in using those chips that have, and one of the impressive things in Grok-3, yes, that's it how effective they...
and China too, I think , closer than most people realizes, to problem solving lithographs that would allow them produce chips for AI in very large volumes. So I think, that it doesn't have only transform to talk about China, but...but current the limitation is electricity for outside China. In China the limitation is the chips.
As only we can decide limitation problem energy using processing centers AI data in space, restriction again will be chips for outside China. For To me it means that we need China and the USA, if you are going set general security restrictions, them will have to work together if you try, I have mind you proposed five manufacturers, who work here...
probably it has include Chinese companies that also develop advanced AI models. And do you think that governments should be involved? My the recommendation would be like this: if if some of the leading AI- companies say that the new model is very dangerous, and if they report that this new model is extremely dangerous, and development company does not take measures to elimination of this dangers, then they must warn government to use measures, mm, for restrictions, eh, release of this model.
Mm, and this there may be actions Chinese government or actions of the US government. Mm, in fact, only the government The United States and the Chinese government have the authority to take measures in this situations. But I think people will worry because of to rely on the group model developers in deciding whether to do it.
That is, if to look at what made the US government with Mythos, they intervened because worried about cybersecurity risks, and they intervened, using, you know, a threat export control so that, you know, prevent widespread the spread of this models. It's hard for me. imagine how governments don't want to keep this the government so that they finally decided, will it be released model.
I believe that they must save, they should have this power . But it wasn't like that, like someone in the government found out that Mythos, uh, had, had some terrible risks cybersecurity. It was Amazon. Um, Amazon emphasized the this and Amazon called The White House. So, you would have system where model developers would check the work each other.
If there was something that worried, you would reported to the government. Then the government would use events. If something else caused anxiety, and the company does nothing did to eliminate this risk, then this would be the same moment for intervention government, and taking measures that, actually, just now and happened.
Why does all this have to occur? Well, I think it would be good to do this, I I think, immediately. Yes. Yes. This is what I they constantly say. We, we have to create such a system during the next six months ago pace of development models. Yes, six months—that's a long time term. Mm, so you think that less than this?
Well, I mean that there are so many announcements about breakthroughs in the field of AI, sometimes several a day. That is, how many of them was it last week? Many. I lost count, you know. Yes, a lot. Mm, so you basically, Do you know whether Demis's proposal, or others, you need to gather and fix it now.
It seems like you're telling me this too. you say. Yes, I, I, I would recommended to us to have at least some informal, um, weekly or two weeks, uh, calls, and so that it...uh, maybe it was a week or two weeks early access for competitors. And exactly therefore I believe that Incentives work because if, you know, competing companies, I think most likely will understand if something is a security threat, and they are not will be ashamed to point out that model release their competitor must be postponed.
I think structure incentives are working there pretty good, and, and if, and if, it's yours kind works the same way, as with the American film association. You know, this, this industry group, which, eh -e, decides, how, how should be evaluated movies, you know, or, or they are suitable for, for small children, whether or not.
Uh, and this, uh, It seems to have worked. pretty good. So, uh, and, and, and then you really just ask, ask the government intervene if, if the company does something very dangerous and refuses to take measures for reducing danger. Do you think this is it? a difficult question, but ...you guys are not very love each other and you don't trust too much to each other.
You constantly insulting each other in social networks. So, is it Do you think that you can do this with the people you you don't like, where, It seems there is such a thing. personal enmity between some of these leaders? Uh, yes. Well, I, I don't sam altman fan, because, uh... Are you looking at mine?
interview with Elon Mask. If you want get early access to others interview, subscribe on The Economist, having crossed over link above. AND now let's go back to interview. If you founded non-profit an organization that had to be a company with artificial intelligence with open source and, uh , you know, belong all over the world, uh, and her somehow turned into commercial company worth 800 billion dollars with closed code, I think you would said: "Well, wait a second, this is , uh, just right the opposite of that, on that I donated money." Here, here's what mine is problem.
I think this is a valid comment. Uh, and Dario, I think, not a fan of Sam either Altman, because he felt...Actually, the reason why the team Anthropic left OpenAI, is that they didn't trust Sam Altman. If it weren't for this, Anthropic would not exist. They would still be in OpenAI . Uh...I, I think Dario is very a person of principle.
He is worried about many things. . Uh, he is concerned the future of the world. And I I think that everyone I still met in Anthropic, made an impression people who are not turn on my " "evil detector." You know , they always they look like have good intentions. Um, and, uh, the way to Hell, as far as I'm concerned, mostly paved with bad intentions.
Although there is also a few cobblestones with good intentions. So we don't want to be self-confident. Ahem, but, in the end, if we will have to speak, we will talk. I mean, postpone our personal differences for the good of all world. Well, that's very good. hear from the rest of us. Yes. Ahem. Can we, can we?
move on to another one risk that concerns people, especially me I think the usual ones Americans, where AI became incredible unpopular—75% people are worried because of this, and I think, they are worried about your work. If you look at Dario, he is known said that 50% initial vacancies, initial office vacancies will disappear for several years.
You create humanoid robots. Yes. He also said, saying: "Dario himself dug his own grave regarding Mythos", therefore what he said: " You know, Mythos is super scary, terrible", and also: "To things, we are going "Let him go." AND then he's like, "What? What do you mean? Do you understand? So I I think he...um, I I think, probably, in in the future he will choose words otherwise.
Ahem. But what... Because obviously, if you, if you scare everyone, and then you say, "Oh, we we are releasing this "terrible thing," people, of course, they will be Are you worried? literally told them to be afraid, and then you are releasing a terrible thing, so they will be fear. This is natural.
So of course I don't I want you to be scared. people, but I really I think it's ongoing. very important discussion about how quickly and to what extent AI will replace humans from work, because it's like you say if because 10 years of artificial intelligence will be more than any what kind of human intelligence.
Yes. And if you and I I think you ahead of everyone at least in this one the country in terms of... software energy humanoid robots, this is also will be... a kind of factory work. So you, are you closer? to Dario, say, in to your feeling the pace at which jobs will be to be replaced? I I really think that's it.
It will be a thorny path. Ahem. Because AI can to perform any work better than anyone can to execute it. Um, and this will be very soon truth for professions, which are digital or anything at all, that work-related on the computer or by phone. AI will be able to to do all this. Um, and can do all this very soon.
I have on meaning that in development software we already provide we have a situation where AI is better than at least 90% of people in writing code. 90% professional programmers in writing software software. And I I really mean it. that we are approaching level of 99%. And then the moment will come when with him simply it will be impossible compete.
It will achieve what I I call it the Stockfish level. So, Stockfish is a chessboard program. Stockfish is so skilled at chess, which she easily wins Magnus Carlsen or anyone else. Ahem, even on a regular basis smartphone, I suspect that can be run Stockfish and win Magnus Carlsen. Here how good he is in chess, and that's how there will be AI in writing software software.
And not only in programming. Beyond that. And this applies to everything. Total. This is all good, but how regarding physical labor, assembly work? For this you need humanoid robots , and they don't exist yet , isn't it? Yes, that's why I divided it : digital AI and physically embodied AI in in the form of robots, where The robot is a kind of executive mechanism.
He will have a certain level local intelligence , but will be guided by a large AI model. Ahem. And, uh. I am a lot said many times that, on in my opinion, work will become optional. So, let me I think maybe a good comparison there will be...gardening. You are not obliged engage in gardening, right?
Yes? You don't necessarily to grow vegetables in to your garden. You you can go to the store and buy the perfect ones vegetables, or grow them yourself, and they will, let's say yes, less perfect . Your tomatoes are not will be the same plump and juicy, like those that in the store. They will look a little "craft".
But if you come to guests at a friend's, and he will prepare dinner with vegetables from your garden, this will be nice gesture. So, exactly like this there will be work. I understand that. Although in I will be in such a world helpless, because gardening is definitely not mine. But I I understand the point.
People still like to play chess with each other, although any The computer is better. Let's just let's think about political aspect this. Yes. Because you seem to be describing a world where in 10 years almost any job artificial intelligence will perform better. AND Yes, you see huge profits from this intelligence for such people like you, you— the richest person in world.
What to do with people who are losing their jobs, displaced, who can to go gardening, but how will they live? And which one, I mean, I think so. unconditional high income, but how are you going achieve this? Let's talk. about the politics of this, because now if we look at political pressure in most countries, people very, very worried this is what they stand for against.
It seems to me that there is the risk that we we are heading faster to revolution than before easy way to this nirvana, which you you draw. I mean, this is It will be a thorny path. I don't suppose that's it. it will be something like easy swimming. Ahem, so I mean, that there are many professions, which existed before, but disappeared because computers.
I have on mind, the word " computer" before concerned a person, performing calculation, it was job description human. And you can see online photographs of buildings, entire skyscrapers, simply filled people who performed calculations to to do things like calculating interest at the bank account. Hmm, that's it.
It's been a long time coming, until they appeared computers, and even computers first were very expensive and complicated in use. Therefore, the thing is that here is different, that is, that the pace of change radically accelerated. Therefore, but still people, You know, there were some upset that their counting work banking percent no more will be available.
Ahem, but now, I think, it would be hard to find people who would like to to perform such work. Um, so I I think I have it. proposal regarding what kind of science fantasy to people, maybe it's worth it to read in order to to feel what it will be like future. And the best vision of the future with artificial with the intellect that I read, these are Ian's books Banks, cycle « Culture".
I'm currently reading "Excession." So, thanks to you, I started reading them, but actually I don't I think this is the future. too attractive, because I don't think so people have there freedom of will. They have freedom. will, minimal compared to with Reason, on a small scale. but the irony is that Ian Banks, how are you?
you know, was socialist. Um, Ian Banks had a completely different political philosophy. I'm not sure I'm from I completely agree with this. Let's agree, what can we do about it come. I am worried. through this path, we we live in a democracy, and people are very worries. So, probably, two questions.
Firstly, Is mass needed? redistribution from people like you, to those who lose work? Is it necessary? you pay more taxes? Is it worth it? significantly increase capital taxes, to finance some unconditional income? Because otherwise what? people to live? I think that the treasury should just to give people checks.
But where from? will take income? I still enough already I understand economy. If you just start to issue checks, will inflation. You know, a lot of that, what we are thinking about, was relevant in past, but will not be relevant in future. Inflation is simple correlation money to goods and services.
So if volume of goods and services will increase dramatically, let's say, by 1000%. You can increase, you can literally print, or change today database, to print money, that is, to create money in the database; provided that the creation of these there will be money slower than volume growth goods and services, you actually get deflation.
So I I will make a prediction: the problem will be deflation, not inflation, because because the volume goods and services increases if this volume is growing faster for the money supply, you have there will be deflation. I am actually quite ready to believe it . You can totally do it. to be right Certainly .
You can totally do it. to be right But I really obsessed on how we to get from current polarized, angry and scared policies to this nirvana. And I think that can be drawn a picture where people so scared hereby, that they are, in essence, are trying this stop. Maybe they have it won't work, but will take place nationalization.
It will appear, you know, some ultra-leftist government. Will be excessive tax increase. Economy will fall apart because people will be very to worry about the future that sounds quite scary, how are you you describe it. So how, how do you decide political issues now? This is fascinating and at the same time terrifying.
But if you were in... Yes. Honestly, if ask me anything what day, even during the day, I I am moving from from delight to horror about AI. So I want to be frank. I am not some one there, You know, I don't trying to be here too frank and just saying: oh, that's all great, some Pangloss a view of the world where everything , you know, it will be good.
No, no, none risk. I say that there is some risk. Ahem, I think we agree with hereby. I think I I try to be more, you know, specific and practical, and think about what is possible to do now to limit these risks. AND you brought very strong argument about what you and your colleagues- model developers could do.
What What should the government do? It would probably be good. to us coordinate and just to illuminate problems that we we see one thing in the models one to reduce negative risks? What should the government do? Do you have to pay? more taxes for program financing help? Well, first of all, I I really cry a lot.
taxes. Ahem, so, um, actually I set a record for the largest amount taxes, ever paid by a person. This is also because you the richest person in world. Well, even before that. So I assume that I will pay a lot. trillions in taxes, and I agree with that. Ahem, so yeah, that's just how it is and it will be.
But I don't think so. what in the future will have money value. I think taxation too becomes something irrelevant. How about... to give people a feeling, that they have a share in success? Of course. Give people shares SpaceX, Tesla, what do you think? , or this—and now about this They talk a lot. Ahem, well, one of the reasons, why I brought SpaceX to stock exchange, is that so that the public could participate, so that they could own a share of SpaceX.
Um, while in private company we are very limited in number of shareholders which we can have before going public. So as a public company we can to have millions shareholders, and how private company— we are limited only several thousand. Ahem , so, What do you think? worth distributing shares, such as, for example, Alaska Foundation welfare, could they you imagine the world—some people are talking about trust accounts as about the means for this— where is your share capital goes ordinary Americans?
Well, about taxes, which I pay, well, for my stock options I I pay 40% of the profit. tax on national level. And then, since I I spend about 30% at one time in California, I'm crying. about a third more state taxes California, which are now account for about 15% . So I pay. about 45% of taxes, just so people know , I don't know if this exactly, but somewhere about half.
AND then when I die, there will be about 45% more, that is, approximately half that will be subject to taxation. Therefore, After all, I have will probably stay a quarter of everything that I have. But I think the only thing it gives me is this is what during a certain period of time I will control development direction companies.
So it's not... Actually, that's almost everything, what do I get, while, I I guess AI doesn't will become so smart, that's all will lead the process, and then control over companies no longer will matter. Well, let's talk about this, because I think that one more thing that worries people about the direction in which we moving—I'm a little I'm exaggerating, but people believe that the future the world is shaped very little incredibly influential people.
And you are you on at the very top of this list. But what else, or this is different from I agree with you. I think , I think that's how it is was. And when was it different? It has always been like this, but, how are you very bright described, this incredibly fast changes. So let's start with control over your the company you you definitely have now, after the IPO you You seem to have about 80% of voters shares, and as I understand it, you can be removed by vote only shares that you yourself you control.
Therefore, tell me if I I'm wrong, but I I think that companies in this category, to things, AI companies, like- here's Google, also in this categories. Alphabet controlled by Larry and Sergiy. Ahem. But I think you have situation more extreme. Inability the same level, they have the right voices and control over this company.
Mark Zuckerberg has control over Meta. AND, you know, Mark is very trying hard at the front AI, and I think that, probably he has too will be the leading AI. He seems to be released one last week. Hmm, well , I think, he, he, he... you know, Meta will be one of those AI- companies. But is it wise when one person has this great control over company?
Um, well, I just... need make sure that I I can focus on long-term perspective from which I mean 5-10 years. So, one of calls for public company— this is pressure, a demand to show wonderful results quarterly, and this prevents investment in things that will only pay off in 5-10 years. AND, you know, in the case of SpaceX, I want to spread consciousness beyond Earth and build civilization on On the Moon, Mars and in other parts Solar system.
It will bring, I...I think, eventually it will have very high return from investments, but in short-term in the future we we will spend everything money for a month or Martian base. AND then people say: "I ...you know, on me will put pressure, they say you don't completed the quarterly plan, because they spent too much for Mars." I I answer: "Yes, to things, it was in S1 avenue, and this literally stated as what we will be to do".
Um, so they anyway are upset about such things, because they say: " Well, you said that your gross margin will be like this, and she's a little worse, and now we have you "And on you sellers are attacking short positions, and you feel strong pressure. Yes. So I just need a way to say: "Listen, Guys, we are going.
to focus on investments from horizon planning from 5 to 10 years or more". This will reduce our profits in short-term perspective. But if to look at long-term perspective, then we have there are many investors, who are looking at this That's right. Actually, I big fan private investors . In fact, I think that our private investors, in general, very insightful and adhere to very long-term views.
Hmm, but part of this is that if you ask, what structure incentives for portfolio managers, it becomes it's clear why they put such pressure on quarterly earnings, because theirs reward and whether they will receive increase, depends from the results their portfolio, and in there are only a few of them years to adopt these decisions.
Hmm, ah then they are evaluated on based on these decisions during the period, which sometimes constitutes only a year or less. AND because they are under pressure of necessity receiving immediate profit, they, with their in turn, they press on companies so that they received immediate profits. So how only you understand incentive structure, behavior becomes quite logical.
What about risk? key person? That is you know what will happen , God forbid, but what, if you get hit tomorrow a talking bus? You have a full control over these companies, do you have plan how they will develop without you? I think they are actually very good will work for several years. And, you know, there is a clear road map, or, I should say, space map for SpaceX.
Um, and actually there is roadmap for Tesla, literally. So I I think that, you know, if you look at Apple after Steve Jobs, then Steve Jobs had a strategic vision and a bunch products, ideas for which he had, and Apple achieved great things success. Hmm, but when you don't have one creative genius, like Steve Jobs, to you those are missing incredible breakthrough products, which Apple currently does not enough.
Yes. So they do great phones, you know, wonderful computers. Um, but Apple did not create any breakthrough product Steve Jobs level. So by analogy, this what you bring to all their companies. You mentioned Mars. You know, most people consider you a person who wants to establish a colony on Marcy, so that we may become interplanetary civilization.
I'm talking about this already. a long time ago. That's right, but now you seem more focused on AI and on what AI will do in the next 10 years. AND you sound much more enthusiastic about use of the Moon as a base for launching orbital satellites with AI. You switched their attention from Mars or are you still the same interested in colonization of Mars, as and before?
I am interested in set of actions that maximum spread awareness into the future. That future light the cone of consciousness was as much as possible, you know, so that we Exciting awaited a future where we— space civilization among the stars, and where everyone those great things that depicted in non-dystopian science fiction books and movies, one day they became reality.
I probably I want a future in "Star" style "The Way of the Stars" or "The Star Trek" wars." By the way, " Star Wars was the first film that I saw in cinema. Really? It probably worked. deep for me impression. Um, I I remember, I was... Oh, that was just amazing. me, honestly. I think I was 6. years, and I thought: " This is the best I've ever been.
"when did you see it?" Was your life dedicated to implement it? Yes, I didn't think so. will be in childhood, but ...my life seems to be over somewhat surreal . Like I can't to believe that all this actually is happening. Ahem. I think the world makes me believe in simulation theory. Yes. Like, things that I I do, so much absurd, that...it's hard to believe that they real.
I mean, we have Starship— the largest and the most powerful aircraft with everyone ever created. Um, and we we intend launch it more than once a hour. I know. I read about it, and people can to argue about how fast is that will happen, but, considering your experience, we must to assume that this will happen someday.
It will happen. I simply amazed by that...me too fascinated by this the world, like you, although I'm watching him on much simpler equal. But for me development of AI and the possibilities of these models by themselves is something incredible. Everything is happening about the same as me expected. Really?
Yes. Oh, that's interesting. Ahem. And not only me, many people predicted this. I think Ray's predictions Kurzweil were extremely accurate. Yes. Singularity. Yes. It's coming. Let's go back to more pressing issues present. We talked about concentration control in your companies. You have given very important arguments why this It should be exactly like that.
You also own incredible geopolitical force thanks to Starlink. I have on Mind you, I'm one of yours. customers. Excellent product. Thank you. But without them, Ukrainians would find themselves in a very, very difficult situation. And when obviously, Ukrainian government publicly thanked Stalin many times for the fact that he contributed to e- e, defense of Ukraine and you recently decided to ban to the Russians occupied territories access to Starlink.
Um, well no, we we we never in any moment was not sold Starlink to the Russians. Ahem, but they were captivating him, right? They used it , and you have now stopped them in this. Well, by in fact, they got Starlink terminals, which ordered through Ukraine, and then smuggling transported them to eastern Ukraine, where are Russians, and used them in some cases for attacks.
Now, to solve this, we are together with the Ukrainian government created a "white" list of "approved" Starlink terminals. It has certain disadvantages, because a whole series people who were simply innocent Starlink users and tried to get Internet access for work or learning, now not have Starlink.
These are geopolitical solutions that have consequences. How are you? feel like having such power? You can determine the outcome wars. How is this? is it felt? And whether that's right, you Do you have that kind of power? Well, I'm not sure. we determine the final result, you know, let's say, war in Ukraine.
Ahem, you know, I, I think, I I really hope so. that will be soon some kind of achievement has been achieved peace agreement. Because, hmm, it's almost 2 or 3 years front line almost does not move, and on the front line every day many people die, and um, and I think here a lot of publishing wishful thinking, when people say, "Well, Russia has fully go out".
But this unrealistic. Um, I I really think that there must be some kind of you know , agreement, we must be pragmatic in on this issue. What, I I think it would be terrible. —that is if there are more three years of nonsense deaths on the line front, and you have say: "Well, how are you?" explain this to the children of those men who die on the front line?
IN Russia, from Russian sides too. By the way, their call and are sent there. I am enough. insulting others elite diplomats who , you know, having dinner with seven dishes in luxurious places, while people are dying on front, and which They teach that Russia must retreat, but they are not going to Russia is not going to retreat.
Ago really should be acceptable peace on under such conditions. Ahem, and do you think with his/her responsibility to play a role in that to tip the scales scales to the fact that you do you think is correct? the path to peace? I I I would I I have been a long time I stand for peace. I, you know, I I I wrote a few years ago that What is really going on here?
certain are needed Russia's concessions. Hmm, this is not because I pro-Russian, I just pragmatic. Um, otherwise people will die for years without any result, and that's it And it happened. I don't know. I have on Attention, Ukrainians do Ukrainians now pretty good cope with you know, thanks to with his incredible possibilities drones that strike at Russia itself, and general consensus is that balance of war is changing.
But mine the idea is not so much about not going return these territory. this is not will happen. Me actually I wonder if you think you, given that through Starlink you have incredible power, or it suits you to use, because this is quite rare the case when a separate The actor has such power, turning on and disabling the possibility influence the conflict.
Well, is there anything that, on In your opinion, I should do it differently? I mean, you did the right thing, supporting Ukraine. I think that, you know, how This won't surprise you, I I think it's Russian. There was aggression, you know, for many reasons terrible aggression, and I think it was important thing you done.
Yes. I mean, I very deep immersed in history this conflict, so that to understand exactly what is happening. Hmm, and hmm , I am reminded an old saying that There are no angels in war. A similar tone, I think, and in questions domestic policy where you know played a big role role on domestic politics arena here.
You spent a lot money for Donald's re-election Trump. After the elections you have become very active involved, you know, through Doge, you tried to reduce a lot of expenses, change the government. How are you? Do you think it was not? it is not very successful in in the sense that you reduced by far so many expenses, How much did you plan?
As you, looking back, Do you regret that? what is so strong got involved in politics? Do you think you, what was that? the right decision? I think, I think that I too much got involved in politics. Frankly speaking, got carried away. Ahem, so, you know, the goal with this Doge thing consisted in the fact that to try something to deal with the deficit, which is huge.
When are the payments made? percent exceed the amount money spent on Ministry of War. That is, in essence, if count all money spent on what is now the Ministry of War and intelligence in the US, this less than percentage debt payments. So we need to look closely to expenses and to make sure that money is being spent smart and that they don't wasted or fraudulent schemes.
And I got a lot of criticism for this, obviously. But people don't understand how much it was just a team Doge approve payments. Literally we just asked provide contact information information recipient or some confirmation that that the money will go for purpose. But again and again to us they said it was necessary transfer money to some important matter in Africa, and we are like: " Okay, but instructions for transfer indicate the district Columbia, to Washington ", not to Africa." Therefore, we would like send money to Africa.
Can you, please connect us with the recipients, so that we can send them money directly? And then— silence. We don't need it again discuss Doge, I don't I have doubts that in the US government has a lot wastefulness. I think probably, much worse than anyone could imagine. But I think that this fair criticism that the way in which you closed a bunch of programs, probably, actually, certainly caused unnecessary suffering.
That is, no, No, you are not into this at all believe. This caused a lot of complaints. Are you looking at mine? interview with Elon Mask. If you want to get early access to other interviews, subscribe to The Economist by clicking link above. Returning to interview. You don't...So you don't believe that someone, if we talk very much rough and simple, whatever what kind of child is in Africa died because of the suddenness with which...
zero? I just don't think so. This is true. I just don't I think that, that is, in I was surrounded by people who reported from Africa, which how many NGOs exist, which could, which could would, which could to intervene because keep in mind, this It happened quickly. Therefore, this, and there are literally dozens thousands of NGOs.
Yes. Not all function like this fast as you. If, if, if, if financing antiretroviral drugs stops in one night, and it's just stops, then people will die, when they don't have to them access, and this simply No, no, only if they can't to get it financing. But in The Gates Foundation has 50 billions of dollars.
What, what, what about them? How about any of the many organizations ? How about, um, uh, um, well, USA, Mackenzie, how her last name is there, previously was, uh, gave 50 billion dollars. How about this? But you know, come on, let's be practical. IN many of these countries USAID was the largest financier.
But I, I I don't want to have USAID was a political organization. Maybe that's true, but he was the biggest system financier health care. So I, I am sure about regime changes and, and quite possibly, there will be benefits from that which also financing USAID was not terminated. It was transferred to State department.
He was stopped. IN Africa was closed a huge number things about which there were, there were such statements. These The statements are false. It nonsense, and absolute nonsense. But, but, obviously, when financing stops for fraudulent organizations or for something like that, you Do you think they they will say, do you think they will say, "Well, Please, continue finance fraud", are you Do you think they they will invent a sad one a story that sounds compassionately, so that restore financing?
Obviously, this will be the last one. And that's exactly what What did they do? But zero died because well, that's what I'm with, that's What I am with is what I am with. What I don't agree with. I I think you can, I actually very I sympathize with the change. the aid regime, which provoked the US for Trump administration .
However, I believe that pace and suddenness, with which it happened, almost certainly caused unnecessary suffering and death. And I think both these moments can No, I think it is. completely untrue. OK. Well, and obviously not true, because there, there is, amount of funding, what are we talking about, huh -uh, much smaller, than what is possible to do than what can be supported through private, uh, through funds such as The Gates Foundation, uh, or Mackenzie Scott Foundation.
Um, she gave it away. tens of billions dollars. Gates The Foundation has tens of billions dollars. They are able to act very quickly. And if they didn't do it , I would say that they carry equal responsibility. I understand. Good. Obviously. OK. Fair remark. Ahem. Zero people. I can hear you perfectly.
clearly. Zero. I hear you completely. clearly. Obviously. Internally you departed from Doge. It was difficult to do that. what did you try make. You just explained this. But this the administration left in the directions that I I suspect you don't. expected two of half a year ago. You know, I won't.
to agree with everything, what does any administration. Are you disappointed with this? administration? No, I think this one administration in Overall, wonderful. None the administration is not perfect, but it much better than alternative. Can we talk? about Europe, a place, on to whom you are very close focused?
Ahem. I'm not that good. focused on Europe. I think, judging by your posts, you are enough concerned about Europe. You support. I mean, it's time. I do something from time to time. I publish. This is quite common, not from time to time, but I I'm posting because I'm sincere. I'm interested in this as a person who lives in Europe, in London.
Yes. You are painting a picture: first of all, you support not only populist right forces, but also the far right, actually very marginal parties in in some countries. No, I support normal people. Good. What you mistakenly you call the far right. Do you think a normal person. Good. Yes. Ahem. Literally you could go back 10 or 15 years ago, and these politicians were quite normal.
In fact, one of tricks that I think funny. What do I think? quite funny, this take Obama's speech or Hillary, and then to go to someone who belongs to, say yes, "crazy" leftists", and ask: " What do you think about this? Trump's speech? Type : "Oh my god, he the worst person in world. In fact, it is was Obama's speech or Hillary.
I agree. No, I I agree that the center of gravity in this country shifted, Democratic Party definitely shifted to the left. But I say no. about this. I'm talking about people like Rupert Lowe. Actually it's just normal people. It's simple. normal people. It just normal people. And, um, and here it is principles, and tell me, which ones sound terrible: what in we must be secure borders.
What we must have safe cities. Hmm, what we must have reasonable expenses. Which of these three there is, well, is there they are far right marginal? And I would I just wanted to condemn you and the media for absurd characteristic " "far right". It not true, it introduces is mistaken and is nonsense.
Be please leave this part. We will leave all this behind. But let me, allow, allow don't cut this one part. Let me object to this. Let me to object, because you you are talking nonsense . Elon, how many do you have? there? Almost 250 millions subscribers in X. Yes. You say things on kind of popular guy quote: « civil war in Britain is inevitable.
Just a question. Yes. I mean, when When were you last at? Great Britain? Um, a few years ago. That's right. So, so I I live there. I am there. constantly. This is not Do you live in a closed world. No, not really. AND numbers too refute what you say. What are the numbers? All numbers regarding crime.
London—a lot safer city than any city in United States. Violent crime in Great Britain does not just like you you think. Actually it is decreasing. You drew—and because you have it many subscribers, many Americans in they believe it—so-so the view that Europe and Great Britain supposedly crowded terrible Muslim migrants.
What rape on every corner. What is happening peculiar civilizational destruction. I am nothing. I didn't say that. It just not...Well, you you say that civil war in Britain is inevitable. Yes, if current trends will be preserved, then yes. Why? Well, if, if you have big and fast growing group people whose belief contradict Western values.
Um, in some time The time of reckoning will come, what will they try implement their own views, and those who against this, there will be to resist, and that's what What do you call it? civil war . And it is obvious that this trend. Hmm, and, and, and you are absolutely right live in a closed environment world.
And if you want, we can arrange tour of Britain. Of course. Very happy to go on tour Britain. And then you will see my country, in which I I live all the time, and you don't were there for several years . I was literally there. a hundred times. But when was it? last? Literally a few years ago. Do you know why this bothers me?
Are you so worried? Because you really formed opinion about the Great Britain, and so on many Americans, with that I encounter and I communicate, they say something like: "Oh, London is like this dangerous place, like Do you live there? There there are gangs everywhere rapists, everywhere violence".
This the picture that people consist of what you publish, or what published in X. For example, you spread it, as it were, "48 hours" civil "The lynching", that film, who, you know, draws dystopia. I him looked. Yes, It was unpleasant. I watched it yesterday. This is not very good. movie, but it also paints a dystopian picture of Europe and glorifies violence lynching.
He glorifies murder immigrant families- Muslims. I sincerely I think that exhibiting it's on X on your side irresponsibly. I think this...this just a movie. Um, and it is worth it look. You are clearly implying that Europe is a dystopian place, and you Yes. So, why don't you do more to fight censorship in Europe?
Why are you It seems nothing. do to combat censorship in Europe? This is not true. I...I I think that in Great Britain put people in prison for posts in social networks. Do you think this is appropriate? No. And we wrote editorials against this. But I I think that's exactly what which I think is bad.
AND I think if you and I I agree with you, but I I don't think you should be exalted lynching violence and publish similar things, drawing completely inaccurate the picture of Europe that you I don't think so. We should take a tour. Great Britain. Yes. And one of Great Britain actually very good copes with integration immigrants.
Big Britain is very effective in this. THERE ARE problems. I am the first. I admit that there are problems. Yes, there are serious problems. There are problems. But this is not Yes. This is not at all what What are you describing? inspire your 240 millions subscribers. That's right. AND I believe that there is problem.
No, I think I...I I think I'm right. Well, we'll have to. and that's why you have freedom of speech, or at least she allows people to say things that are incorrect. But your opinion is not that what are you just saying: " I have every right. "to say what I want." You say, you know what? I am right about Europe, and I really don't think so, that you are right.
I think I'm right. I think you will find that most people in Europe, or at least many, not you are considered right in this. But come on, let's move on to at this moment, because the media continue ignore that they ignore reality . I also don't think so. This is true. I really... and they programmed television and traditional media.
But why are you...this, probably even for me more global question. Why are you focus on this? Why are you doing this? Are you interested? Because, with on the one hand, we started this conversation, and you described these to me extraordinary, transformational, amazing, in general, civilizational changes, what will happen in the next 10 years, and on the other hand—you are active participant of the worst kind tribalism, well, you know, this cesspool social networks.
As Does this fit? You too You see, these are two very different views on world. Yes, I don't think so. that they are incompatible. But why are you you are doing the latter, this tribalism? I I mean, people. They say you are racist. People say that you, you know, about you they say all sorts of things things with which, I I'm sure you don't.
Agree. Um, but I I just don't understand. What kind of motivation is this? do. You are kindling enmity? My partner, she half Indian, and I have four with her. children. Um, you know, um... one of them was named in honor of the famous Indian physicist. So I would say that I don't racist. And also, if to look at people, who work in my companies, we have higher education leaders links of all races.
There, I I don't think there is any. racism. Are you anti-Muslim? Um, I...I'm against that. so that...if people are coming to the country with antithetical with looks, um, I'm against this. I am against this, you know. I am against um...I against rape and murders. I am against imposing rules and laws that contradict that we adopted in the West .
Um, and um...and I think, It's just a shame that traditional media, like you, um, don't recognize this. Firstly, I think that you are much exaggerate challenges that Europe is facing. On -secondly, in some areas I am completely I agree with you. I think that restrictions on freedom words in the Great Britain in certain areas are problematic.
What worries me is that people who support this, at some points are quite disgusting. As- here are some members of the AFN, Alice Weidel, whom I met, —completely a sensible person, but her party has real neo-Nazis, is really very terrible people. And yours full support such a party, having 240 millions subscribers, means, What do you have in Europe?
such an influence, the scale of which you, maybe not even realize, but you I hope you can. I really have a big one. influence. But why, why you must have the opportunity to shape European politics ? What? You're not even there. live. I take this as The event as a whole. But do you understand? why does it make people to think that this a man who has such power, the richest person in world, believes that it has the right to influence our politics.
It makes people...it the reason why, you know, we started this conversation from superlatives. Here why do people hate you hate. I mean, some people really like you hate. Yes, some hate it . But do you understand? Why? Do you think that what you are doing, it is useful for the West? Maybe, maybe, some people me and hate.
And this, probably true. Me indifferently. Hmm, but that one the fact that, as you noted, a quarter a billion people are following me, means that, in my opinion opinion, much more people love me, than vice versa. And I think , which is much more people hate you and the media than you yourself Imagine.
You realize that the media despise? Are you do you understand that journalists...how relate to journalists...it's on equal...praising attitude towards journalists is about 15%. I know this in United States. So the situation changed to the opposite. They They hate you. much more than me. I think that definitely there is a loss of trust to journalism.
I think that's partly it. happened because journalistic mistakes and journalism itself. I fully admit that. But I also think that so polarized atmosphere, especially in social networks, which is heated things that you you advance to X, actually does only make the situation worse. I don't think so. I I think you are it.
problem. Media, um, and to things about hate, you are hated much more than me. And you, it seems, not even this you realize. I think very little people know who I am such, compared to you. So I don't think so. that we play in one league. The media in general. Ahem, that is, I mean, that they hate you.
You Do you know this at all? Most likely, no. I want to think, what I realize own shortcomings, The shortcomings of The Economist and our shortcomings worldview. But what we stand up for you you know, it is liberal values, traditional classic liberal values, where we are concerned concentration of power and we believe in personality and human dignity.
I I firmly believe in personal freedom, and I I thought for a long time that you classical liberal, but when I read that, what are you Classical liberal, John Stuart Mill, limited government, personal freedom Yes, I agree with that. when I read what you publish in your tape, I sometimes I ask myself whether Are you really into this?
believe. Um, I literally said: look, I I believe in safe cities. , protected borders and smart government costs. Ahem, or it doesn't do that at all I am correct. Ahem, Absolutely not. Whether the USA or European countries have better indicators in this? The USA is better. No. Yes. Safe cities—in the USA lot more dangerous than Great Britain.
Smart spending is here a bigger deficit, it got out of control . You did it, you couldn't get it reduce. Protected borders. Now, under administration time Trump, I'm with you. I agree. Not before, but by two out of three points Europe definitely the best situation. However, you, It seems you are drawing.
picture of Europe as real hell. I don't think that Europe —this is hell. Okay, we can for some reason agree. When did I say that? Well, a picture of Europe, which you are drawing...You You're making things up. No, I'm not making it up. You you say that civil war in Britain is inevitable, and you, in fact, advertised this a film about civilians Avengers, who really depicts Europe is like hell.
He just begins, you know, from the sinister music, and it says: "Europe". Well, there were uncontrolled rape and murders. In this country more dangerous than Europe. Hmm, danger in this country there is because we don't put in prison serial violent criminals. Um, and this, you know, classic situation with prosecutors or judges who are not punish repeat offenders .
And if someone literally 50 times arrested for violent crimes, then they finally found someone will be killed. So either you them imprison, or people will die. I think the spread weapons also have to this is extraordinary relation. I mean, this is much more dangerous country. Level murders is much higher, largely because, What is so many here?
weapons. Well, let me. to give you an interesting digit. In Europe from heat kills more people than in America from gunfire weapons. Why don't you write an article about air conditioning air? Well, we did a few materials about air conditioners, and last week on we had a cover great article about why are they needed air conditioners.
Yes, we are very we support air conditioning air. Okay, great. Well, good. We are very supportive. You It's worth reading us. Certainly. We will give due. I think you have It didn't quite work out. an accurate representation of The Economist. So I suggest you look at England, start reading The Economist, and I, you know, I admit my mistake in criticizing you in this field.
that there is a lot parts of Britain and Europe, which are not safe. You are not you can just do it to walk everywhere. But in this country they much more. Much more. No, I don't think so. Okay, let's get mine. fact checkers will check this. Yes, I don't think so. truth. Ahem. Let's move on to another, because I think , I understood why you Do what you do.
It's not about whether there is America is perfect. The question is whether it should Europe is serious and a growing problem? Certainly. More dangerous. It is from That's what we started. Europe has a serious and a growing problem. I I'm not going to to claim that The United States does not have problems.
Of course , have. But we all must try to solve these question. We can agree. with this. We all must try solve problems. My thought was only in the fact that you exaggerate the scale of the European problems, and what I think you people missed the moment and didn't realize the scale of the problem. I also believe that your interventions, which they would be well-intentioned were not, they risk significantly worsen the situation in Europe.
As? Because you support people, which are proto-authoritarians , which are not just are trying to provide better integration of Muslims whether to protect the borders, and have clear fascist tendencies , and you will cause in Europe...I think that, What you are saying is complete fabrication. Um, and actually I just I say that Europe must have secure borders.
Ahem. okay, not with this to let loose a huge the number of people whose views conflict generally accepted in Europe, and where there will be no of a certain level safe cultural integration. It's simple. good sense. If you just say, that Europe should have safe borders, I am completely I agree with you.
Then, then I am wrong understood your appearances on social media networks, because it's not what I would achieve conclusion, seeing people you support, and things, which you do. But if that's your goal, I I share it: Europe must have secure borders. I think that's quite reasonably. This brings me to question and let me explain which one fundamental factor is at work here, why there are no borders safe, namely when you have a state general welfare , which provides significant benefits to everyone who is coming there.
You create very powerful economic incentive for anyone whose standard of living lower, come to Europe. This is obvious a powerful driving force. And people will come there, if their level life from what they receive in Europe, higher than that, what they have in others corners of the world. It very simple.
I'm totally with this. I agree. I am not, I am not this is very basic incentive structure. Ahem. Economic conditions, economic impacts determine a significant part of migration. I think the shelter is separate question, but I I think that you Absolutely right. There are pressures on migration. However, there is other things you not focused: migration brings many advantages, especially on such a continent like Europe , which is rapidly aging.
So, we can agree that fully uncontrolled borders are bad idea, but I think that Europe benefits from controlled immigration. It brings Yes. I like it , I support immigration. Obviously, I would be a hypocrite, if I hadn't supported because I am alone immigrant in United States. I for immigration, if a person who immigrates, will be productive member of society.
If they will honest and will not be to misbehave with people in this country, they will be. I can agree with all of this. Yes. But I think that Europe copes with this better than you you think. Here I am. I think we disagree. But let's move. further. Tell me what it is, in your opinion, people most Are they wrong about you?
Well, I mean, you just wrong understood a lot things about me. Almost all for the last, just rewind the last 20 minutes, everything still wrong. So I understood, we I understand. misunderstood your your Well, let's not. repeat. Good. So, this one political side you understand the least right. Yes. My political very good views centrist.
They are not far right, and, honestly saying, calling it far-right, I I think this is an insult. stories, insults many people, and this outrageous untruth. Em this is absolutely absurd. I literally expressed his position, which is in that, and I was very clear about this, that must be safe borders, what, um, if there are any influx of immigrants, they must be people who will agree with Western ideals, with Westerners values.
And if not, and if there is long-term increase in number people who are not agree or, in in some cases, categorically against Western values, you prepare the soil yourself for civil war. This is obvious. It the child can see. So, this is not right-wing radical view. I just I state the reality. . Well, I think we both are.
we can agree that evidence will be able to decide which of us more or less right. And we will find evidence for both of us different views parts of Europe. The question is what is general I am very well. I predict the future. I am not perfect, but I am very good I predict the future. My score very successful high for a person.
Um, but it has a certain Cassandra effect, when people don't believe that, what I'm saying is probably truth. Um, because You know, I can see. future with higher education, not ideal, but with a higher probability of success, than most people. So, including things, what kind of people in some cases are considered counterintuitive.
Um, and again, I I'm not saying that I always right. I definitely don't. But my score very successful good. Um, but this has, as I said, Cassandra effect, when people don't realize, that what I'm saying will come true. Um, maybe not quite while I was thinking, but it will come true. Um, and, yes. History will give its verdict.
But I think you you will see that very not enough of what I said, um, not exactly. Um and and overwhelming most of what I said, is very accurate and it will come true, if there are no changes in direction. You have higher level confidence in your expectations regarding future AI— the first part of our conversations or the last, the political part?
Um, I mean, AI —this is digital superintelligence, which are called singularity, as a black hole because you you don't know what will happen after this. He and and he as if absorbing into itself all. So I think, actually from the point really big eyes macro effects here AI and work actually will dominate in everything.
So in time scale, which is less than 10 years, which probably does the rest of the things that we said less important and less relevant. Sh SHI, AI revolution and robotics will happen earlier. She is she will happen earlier, than civil war in Britain. I would say that to civil war in Britain, probably 20 years.
Um, and AI singularity robots—in 10 years. Well, let's hope these friendly omnipotent AI will prevent such consequences. It probably will be so. Elon, I disagree with everything you say, but always with you absolutely interesting communicate. Very Thank you. No, Please. I am not boring. You are definitely not boring.
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