저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 린치는 '아는 것에 투자하라'는 원칙 아래 기업 펀더멘털 분석과 장기 보유를 강조하며, 시장 타이밍 예측은 무의미하다고 주장한다. [투자 철학] '아는 것에 투자하라'는 말은 과도하게 단순화되기 쉽고, 실제로는 재무제표(부채·현금) 등 기본 리서치가 필수라는 뜻이다. 소비재 구매처럼 신중하게 접근해야 하며, 쇼핑몰에서 본 인기 브랜드 같은 관찰도 출발점일 뿐이라고 한다. [지수 대비 초과수익] 지수를 이기려면 쇠퇴하는 기업(철강·석유·시어스·페니 등)을 피하고, S&P500 내에서 나아지는 기업이나 지수 편입 전의 우량 기업(카맥스 예)을 찾아야 한다고 말한다. 주식은 복권이 아니라 기업이라는 관점을 강조한다. [워런 버핏 일화] 1989년 버핏이 전화해 '좋은 기업을 팔고 나쁜 기업을 추가하는 것은 꽃을 자르고 잡초에 물을 주는 것과 같다'고 말했다는 일화를 소개한다. [시장 예측의 무의미함] 시장 하락을 예측하느라 손해 보는 돈이 실제 하락장에서 손실보다 크다는 취지. 린치가 마젤란을 운용한 13년간 시장은 9번 10% 이상 하락했고 이를 맞추려 하지 않았다. 장기적으로 상승분이 하락분보다 크므로, 단기 자금이 필요 없다면 꾸준히 투자하면 된다고 본다. [산업 구조 변화] 소매업(아마존 영향)과 자동차 업종은 PER이 낮지만, 산업이 나빠져도 '더 나빠질 때까지 기다리는 것'은 투자 근거가 아니며, 경기순환적 반등을 먼저 포착하는 것이 중요하다고 한다. 섬유·신발 산업 쇠퇴 경험을 언급한다. [에너지 업종] 현재 셰일 공급 과잉은 일시적 과잉(글럿)이며, 생산 감소 속도(첫 달 1000배럴 → 1년 후 300배럴 수준 감소)를 고려하면 공급이 줄어들어 에너지 업종에 긍정적일 수 있다는 관점. 현재 사모펀드·IPO·채권시장 자금이 빠져나가고 있고, 미국 원유 생산이 500만에서 1250만 배럴로 늘어난 추세가 계속되기 어렵다고 본다. 구체적 종목 언급은 없다. [리스크] 단기 시장 예측 실패 위험, 산업 쇠퇴 함정, 셰일 생산 둔화 가정의 불확실성이 존재한다. [출연자 전망] 린치는 장기 보유와 기업 분석 중심의 접근을 일관되게 강조하며, 특정 자산에 대한 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
welcome to financial inspiration use the links in the description to get up to four free audio books thank you for watching please leave a like and subscribe for more content peter lynch is near the top of anyone's list of great investors in the 13 years he ran the fidelity magellan fund he racked up annual average returns of 29.2 percent a member of the barons roundtable in the 80s and 90s peter's on the cover of barons this week and i went to boston to get his insights here's our conversation so peter your investing philosophy is often summed up as by what you know and there's some truth to that and it's also often way oversimplified can you explain what you did mean by that and what you didn't mean well i think it bothers me that people are very dangerous when they invest this word play the market that's a dangerous term but if you do some work do some research know what you own look at the research look at the balance sheet if you if you could add eight and eight get fairly close to 16 you find out this company has lots of debt no cash they're in trouble you should known it so a little bit of research people are careful they buy a refrigerator can they take a vacation and they they'll put five ten thousand dollars some stock to hear on the bus or the party that's dangerous so when you say buy what you know you also thought that the regular investor might be able to get an inside advantage by sticking to an industry he's a familiar with or seeing something that she realizes is a great product imagine if you were in a mall the last 50 years you were seeing gap when it was hot you were saying aluminum was hot we've seen what was not had we've seen when they were starting people weren't excited about gap anymore or then you do some research say well gee there's a lot of limited stores but we're only 20.
you know they can go to 400. so you you see a company i did really well dunkin donuts a local company i do well with stop and shop but people can see that there's a really people showing up or gets the sunglass hut no one's there anymore so that's research that's fundamentals so you don't leave the mall though and by that day you have to do some more work that's the important point yeah so today uh there's so much information everywhere information overload does that make it harder for active investors the indexers say everyone's got access to the same information at the same time you can't beat the market well the way you beat the index is you avoid the stocks to go down you avoid the steel companies and the oil companies and sears and penny and where the companies are deteriorated i mean companies are dynamic behind every stock there's a company these are not lottery tickets so you're trying to find the companies within the s p 500 that are doing better they're going from crappy to semi-crabby to good that might take a couple years or they're going to grow for a long time and you're trying to avoid the companies that are going south that's how you beat them or you find some companies outside the sp500 that are that are great companies carmax was not in the sv-500 they weren't 200-fold so a lot of times they enter and a lot of their great performances before they go in now a lot of people when they're lucky enough or smart enough to get a company that's going up they then they take their profits and then you made the case in a book that you should actually hang in there with the really great stocks and you even got a call from warren buffett as a result in 1989 i'm at home the phone rings and that was one of my friends but one of my daughters your six-year-old and he picked up and said she just there's a mr buffett online i said this could be a joke i pick it up and this this warren buffett from omaha nebraska you know i read your book my aim reports doing two weeks i use a line he said that all about seven seconds and i said that's great i'd love to do it what what's the line he said i love this it's been waiting to do this when you sell your great companies and add to the losers it's like water in the weeds and cutting the flowers he said i want to put it in he said if you ever come to nebraska don't call me you nailed me mud all over nebraska so did he call him oh yeah i said several times we played bridges together we've had several meetings great guy another point you've made and this is i think particularly relevant 10 years into a bull market is that i think you said more money has been lost anticipating a downturn than actually in the downturn can you explain well obviously the market's market's gone up tenfold since i stopped running magellan so you make more money on the upside the market's been a lot higher in 10 years from now 20 years from now 30 years from now trying to predict the market is really a waste i don't know what's going to do it can go down when i ran magellan 13 years it declined 10 or more nine times the market wow i had a perfect record i went down more than ten percent every time whatever the market went down and went down more but over the long term the upside is more than the downside so you're gonna say something do i need the money in the next month do i need money next year do i have kids going to college they have a wedding coming up then you're a bad investor if you if you can keep putting money in your 5 10 15 20 25 year you should do well one thing we're thinking a lot about at barons is the secular changes we're seeing in the market where there's so much disruption that we wonder if certain industries they may be cheap and they may just keep on getting cheaper i mean retail would be an obvious one in some cases victims of amazon but even the auto industry very low price earnings multiples maybe the market sees something do you think secular changes is moving more rapidly now than it did in the 80s when you were running money no i saw the textile industry deteriorate i i was recommend all the stocks of the way down i saw the shoe industry go away industries are the industries can go from terrific to terrible there's a great expression the intentional industry that helped me a lot textile industry yeah it's always darkest before pitch black just anything things are terrible they get terrible squared i mean so just because the industry's getting bad that's not a reason invest wait for things to get better because again somebody might be involved in distilling it might be involved in coal they might involve in iron ore they might involved in plastics they'll see it aluminum pick up before i do so you might that's a cyclical turnaround that might last two or three years you might see it way before wall street season one broad area that you've recently said might be interesting is energy and it's very unloved on wall street right now what do you see in there well the difference between a glut right now and a shortage is like one million barrels a day you know the world consumes 100 million a day one million each way so if the economy stays okay and these shale wells you do a thousand barrels a day the first month a year later that 300.
wow and then they're 150 big drop off it's a real treadmill and right now there's no private equity money there's no ipos there's no bond market the banks want out private equity wants out shale's going to slow down so these people think the chair is going to keep growing 2-3 million barrels a day we've gone from 5 million barrels in the u.s producing to 12 and a half people think that's going to continue i don't believe it will peter lynch thank you very much thank you
댓글 0