원문 보기
ray dalio issued a note to his investors and then also published it on linkedin pretty long read but a good one nonetheless dalio is kind of delving into the bond market and he's one of the most prolific investors of course over the last decade or two and his long-term outlook is pretty bearish for the dollar and pretty bullish for uh some of the asian markets specifically china interesting point in this note for crypto markets at least is that he foresees tax regulations and uh other regulations around wealth uh being an impediment to holding bitcoin he's saying that the downturn in bond yields which has been going on for quite a while as we've seen quante of easing the printing of money is going to lead to uh wealth tax as people try to flee into riskier assets or assets that the government can't control like gold or bitcoin so i'm gonna punt this to the group i think naomi uh your take uh what's your your long-term economic outlook where are you putting your money are you putting in bonds um obviously i'm putting my money into bitcoin as a long-term economic outlet i think that's why a lot of us are here um we we like the idea of having an alternative because we see what the other alternative is and that's just increasing printing of money um you know you have the treasury that is just issuing so many bonds and then the central bank that is just printing a ton of money in order to buy those bonds and so as a result no one really wants to buy bonds right now as you mentioned will it's like they're having to like we saw last week you know the yield is rising because it's trying to incentivize people to get into this market that no one's really interested in right now i think ray dalio has a great point there he's obviously a very smart guy and he's recognizing uh that the us economic outlook isn't looking that great right now for people there is no sane reason why people should be holding assets in the long term um when they're getting below inflation yields on them so you know people are looking to other assets better ways to store their um the cash reserves you have micro strategy as we mentioned who's just like i'm buying bitcoin i'm buying a trillion billion dollar more bitcoin i'm buying a gazillion more bitcoin they're just like all in on bitcoin they're issuing all this debt for their company so they can get even more bitcoin and their reasoning is because it is a better store of value than cash at the moment they think that it is safer for their customers for their their shareholders than storing their money in cash which is just going to get inflated away with all the money printing that is going on so i um i tend to agree like last year we saw the amount of u.s oils in existence rise by 41 this year obviously it's going to be a whole bunch more as we continue to print money so i think that the same approach is to look for things other than cash yeah i think that's totally right i want to throw this over to zach when you're reading these investment notes just as from an editorial perspective what are you looking for in them that's a great question i didn't read this investment note so i can't speak to this one specifically but i will speak on the topic of people opining about bitcoin um i think it's interesting to see uh you know these wall street titans you know uh writing this stuff down and sort of reckoning with this new asset class that is emerging before their eyes right i think um you know most people had been dismissive of this and so you're seeing sort of these conversion narratives right now you know like oh okay now i reassessed and here's why and we're in a different macro macroeconomic environment in which an asset like bitcoin makes more sense so i think um you know just i don't want to call it like mental gymnastics but like looking at sort of like you know the evolution that they're articulating here you know again these are conversion narratives and like kind of like going along with them on their journey to why they came to this conclusion i think that's the thing that's interesting to me from a from an editorial perspective naomi what do you got yeah i want to add to that zach i think you've hit the nail on the head there um you know when people first got excited about bitcoin in oh nine and people looking at this saying this is the future um i mean you know when the white paper was released it was because people saw that this was gonna happen people predicted this and as you said zach all the institutional players were like this is ridiculous magic internet money no one's going to take this seriously but the reason why people at the outset were so excited is because we were right in the thick of the 08 crisis we've seen a huge amount of uh money printing we thought there were going to be huge inflationary effects and it's debated whether or not we saw those obviously we got the you know education bubble the um the college bubble just went out of control we got the housing bubble when it was still out of control um no real policy changes were made there so people are still pouring money into real estate and it's getting out of control so you know people expected to see much worse and then the amount of quantitative easing that we're seeing at the moment is a completely a different ballpark to what we saw in oh wait like it's it's astronomical compared to what we saw then and so i think that at the time people did recognize that this was the trend and there was no stopping it and they tested the waters in oh wait it was just going to continue and they were absolutely right and now you have these other smart people jumping on board saying yes we actually agree 10 years later um so it's great that they're finally you know joining the game um but people have been predicting this for a while and i think those early predictors were correct zach yeah i mean the skeptic in me is also like you know money talks right and all of a sudden there's these big giant numbers being bandied about around this thing and you see it with nfts and you see it with bitcoin and at some point these numbers get impossible to ignore for people who are in the business of making money so it's a chicken and egg right those numbers numbers come about because we've just seen a huge amount of stimulus like that's how the bull rum was created everyone's pouring their money into to crypto and it really started with micro strategy i would say when they were like hey we're buying a bunch because all of this printing is ridiculous jen what were you gonna gonna say about all this well i mean we keep bringing up microstrategy michael saylor tweeted this morning that bitcoin is the obvious answer to what ray is saying but i i want to talk about a future with taxes and regulations and and even higher fees what do people need to be cautioned against because we're we're saying that bitcoin is the obvious answer and should should these things come to fruition what what do we need to worry about ben you want to take this one i mean i think yeah we'll take it away okay yeah i think what what dalio is kind of noting in the piece so in my opinion his is that as uh as inflation occurs and you see bond yields decrease we're going to see large flights of assets into different asset classes entirely so like gold or bitcoin something where government the government cannot seize it we know that elizabeth warren has just proposed a new wealth tax and dalio st's a wealth tax of some sort coming along the pipeline next few years and you know there is a possibility that you know a government in some future point decide that they don't like bitcoin and take some negative actions against it you see that in other countries like india all the time where they try to ban bitcoin it's difficult to do but it's not unfounded in the united states in the 1830s gold was banned and it was seized throughout the country so there's there's a precedent for it and there's also uh the stage is kind of set in dalia's opinion for this kind of uh movement of asset classes entirely
Comments 0