Mohamed El-Erian: The Fed needs to 'be bold' on its inflation problem

요약 보기

Fed의 인플레이션 대응 신뢰가 무너져 시장 불확실성이 커졌다는 진단이다. 핵심 주장: 과거 저금리·무제한 유동성의 Fed 우산이 사라지고 있어 시장이 불안하다. Fed는 인플레이션을 과소평가하고 일시적이라 한 탓에 신뢰를 잃었고, 이를 되찾으려면 대담하게(bold) 인플레 문제를 인정하고 행동한다고 시장에 알려야 한다. 시장 전망: Jeremy Siegel은 수요일 FOMC에서 Fed가 시장 예상보다 매파적으로 나올 것이며, 나스닥은 약세장 진입, S&P500은 조정 구간 진입 가능성을 언급했다. S&P500은 지난주 5.7% 하락했고 Siegel 시나리오대로면 하락폭이 두 배 이상 커질 수 있다는 설명이다. 근거 지표: 애널리스트 전망의 분산이 역대급으로 커졌다는 점을 강조. 현금의 실질수익률은 약 -7%로 매력이 없고, 채권과 가상자산(변동성)도 매력이 낮다고 평가했다. 자금 흐름: 가격이 자금 흐름을 크게 앞질렀으며 신용시장·신흥국 시장에서 의미 있는 자금 유출입 반전이 없다. 자금 이탈이 시작되면 문제가 될 수 있다고 경고했다. 출연자 전망: 기술주 하락세가 계속될지는 기술적 지표가 혼란스러워 판단하기 어렵다고 유보했다. 투자 자금이 있다면 조금 기다리면 더 좋은 진입점이 올 수 있고, 장기 관점을 유지하며 잘못된 시점의 이탈을 경계하라고 조언했다. 1월이라 아직 이르다는 입장이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so the story has changed you know for a long time we had this massive fed umbrella it didn't matter how much it was raining because we were under a fed umbrella of massive injections of liquidity artificially low interest rates and that would stay forever qe forever qe infinity now it's raining a lot harder not just economically but geopolitically as well and we are doubting the umbrella rightly so because that umbrella has been abused for such a long time so i understand this nervousness and it's not going to go away because inflation is a problem and the fed is going to have to react jeremy siegel was with us in the last hour he said that he thinks the fed is going to sound much more hawkish than even the markets anticipating on wednesday the jay pal will sound more hawkish and that if he's looking at things you could see the declines more than double what we've already seen he was talking about the nasdaq getting into bear market territory and the s p getting in well into i think he said correction territory so if you're down 5.7 percent on the s p that would be well more than double what we've seen same story on the nasdaq which is in correction territory now but not near bear market territory does that sound right to you so it sounds significant because it comes from jeremy what sounds right to me is that the marketplace doesn't quite know where the fed is and where the fed is going if you look at analysts i have never seen such massive dispersion in what analysts are saying not only about what the fed is going to do but the fed what the fed should do so the federal reserve has lost control of the inflation narrative understandably so because it mischaracterized inflation as transitory for so long it has to regain it and then the question is how do you regain it in my view they need to be bold they need to tell the market we understand that we have an inflation problem and we're acting but most people don't think the fed is going to do that most think people think the fed is going to be very gradual and that's why you get this incredible range of expectations that actually undermines the market and undermines the economy i don't know what the i forget what the opposite of a virtuous cycle is but that that seems to be what we're in and maybe this is psychology market psychology at this point where you're willing to look past a lot of things and and really bid up valuations um and when the multiples kind of unwind this is this is what you see but there's been a lot of pain that's been inflicted because even though you're talking about the averages being down five six seven and a half percent last week if you're looking at some of the individual stocks particularly in technology you're talking about much steeper declines does it really continue does the blood letting really continue at this point yes hard to tell because the technicals are confusing um let me explain if i may most of the time it is the flows that lead to price action so you identify the flows and then you see the price action then you can make a judgment as to what comes next this time around the flows haven't led the price action the price action have gone way ahead of the flows we haven't had significant flows mike was talking about the credit markets no flows there look at emerging markets no flows there in a meaningful way no reversal of flows now the optimist will say that's great news it means investors are have faith in this market the pessimists will say be careful because if the flows start happening meaning outflows out of markets um then you get an issue the biggest problem for investors when you talk to jeremy about it is they don't know where to go they may not like equities but like you pointed out is a minus seven percent real return on cash isn't attractive the bond market isn't attractive cryptos aren't that attractive with the volatility so they don't know where to go and that's what's making us all feel uncomfortable right now so where should they go look it depends on your on your situation and i say this all the time i'm with jeremy if you've got money to invest just wait a little bit you may have better entry points otherwise make sure that you've got a long-term view i worry about the behavioral aspects that people get kicked out of markets at the wrong time um but this this is this is tricky and it's only january becky it's only january