저자: PeterSchiff,ArtLaffer · 외국인
요약 보기
2007년 미국 경기침체 가능성과 서브프라임 충격을 두고 Peter Schiff은 침체가 길게 이어지며 부채 기반 소비가 무너진다고 주장했다. 경기 전망: Schiff는 소비 중심 경제가 부채 소비를 줄이고 저축으로 전환하는 과정에서 침체가 여러 해 지속될 것이라 봤다. Laffer는 저축률 하락에도 부가 늘었고 세금 인상·통화정책·무역 여건이 양호하다며 침체 주장에 반대했다. 주택시장: Schiff는 저금리 변동금리 모기지로 부풀려진 주택가격이 2007년 리셋과 대출 기준 강화로 급락할 것이라 봤다. Laffer와 Tom은 주택가격이 약 10% 상승할 것이라 봤다. 금융위기 범위: Schiff는 서브프라임이 전체 모기지 시장과 자동차·카드 대출 등 다른 자산유동화증권으로 번지며 큰 신용경색이 올 것이라 봤다. Don은 서브프라임 문제가 작다고 봤고, Charles는 변동성이 실적 발표 시점까지 이어지나 최악은 지났다고 봤다. 금융주: Don과 Charles는 금융주(메릴린치, 골드만삭스 등)가 저평가됐다며 매수 관점을 보였다. Schiff는 금융주가 싸지 않고 수익이 사라질 것이라며 반대했다. 투자 제안: Charles는 금 ETF(GLD)를 추천하며 금이 2008년에 온스당 1000달러를 넘고 다우는 16000, 나스닥이 가장 강할 것이라 봤다. Schiff는 주식 전반에 부정적이었다. 출연자 전망 요약: Schiff는 침체·주택 급락·신용위기를, Laffer는 경기 양호와 주택 상승을, Charles는 하반기 회복과 금·나스닥 강세를 예상했다.
다듬은 글
recession or not we're gonna be joined by art Laffer he's chief investment officer of Laffer investments and former economic adviser to President Reagan and Peter Schiff he's president of Euro Pacific Capital gentlemen thanks for being here Peter I want to start with you although there are more and more people saying that the US economy will be in a recession next year it is still a minority position why do you think that a recession is coming just how bad is it going to be I think it would be pretty bad and whether it starts in a seven or eight I think is immaterial and I also think it's gonna last not just for quarters but for years so the basic problem of the US economy is we have too much consumption and and borrowing and not enough production and savings and what's gonna happen is the American consumer is basically going to stop consuming and start rebuilding a savings especially when he seizes home equity evaporate and when you have the economy 70% consumption you can't address those imbalances without a recession you know rather than the recession being resisted it should really be embraced because the disease is all this debt financed consumption how cure is that we stop consuming and start saving and producing again and that's a recession and sometimes you know medicine tastes bad but you got to swallow it art Laffer you hearing me says the consumer is going to slow down in order to rebuild the savings and you know that two-thirds of the American economy is driven by the consumer do you believe that no I don't believe any of it whatsoever Michele excuse me but you know what he's saying is that savings is way down in this country but wealth has risen dramatically the United States economy has never been better shape there is no tax increase coming in the next couple of years monetary policy is spectacular we have freer trade than ever before and not only that but there are no incomes policies things here I think Peter is just totally off-base and I don't think it's gonna be I mean I just don't know where he's getting his stuff this is off base but it's definitely not me I mean it's not wealth that's increased in the last few years we haven't increased our productive capacity all that's increased is the paper values of a stocks and real estate but that's not real wealth no more than it was wealth whether you see the stock market come down and the real estate bubble burst all that phony wealth is going to evaporate and all that's going to be left is all the debt that we accumulated to foreigners Peter I'm gonna bet with you and this one up I'll bet you a penny on this one that if you'll sign a letter saying that if you're wrong you'll sign letter that you were wrong to me in this but you're just way off base there is nothing out there that tells us we're going nice slow down but it's not gonna be alright let me ask you this question will hugs be worth more or less in 2007 tunnel what do you think the replaces got about 10 percent here's why because you're gonna come into a regular normal market and a regular normal mortgage that's a battle car appreciation you get into home prices up 10% Fender coming year Peter what do you say well today's home prices are completely unsustainable they were bid up to these artificial Heights by a combination of temporarily low adjustment rate mortgage payments by a complete you know absence of any lending standards and by speculative buying and what's gonna happen in 2007 is a lot of these artificially low arm payments are going to be reset upward you're gonna start to see both the government and the lenders reimposing lending standards and tightening up on credit and you're gonna see a lot of the speculative buyers turn into sellers and these sky-high real estate prices are gonna come crashing back down to earth I first will have no idea what Peter Schiff is talking about I agree with Tom I think they're gonna be up probably up to about 10 percent what artificial lending standard are you talking about it's what Peter the most of the profits that people have in real estate are gonna vanish just like the profits that ended in the dot-coms in 1999-2000 it's a fantasy people can't sell their house the inventories are exploding all over the country houses are on the market for six months a year there's no bidders so the price to fall through the floor loud and clear from all of our pallets we thank you very much Don you say this could be a perfect storm for buyers what do you mean I mean that the credit crunch is way overblown the financials are being given away they're so unbelievably cheap the many of the resource companies have gotten really whacked on our cheap at this point the credit the prime time sorry that prime time the subprime problem is a problem but it's a tiny problem the context this economy the storm is a problem but it's a tiny problem meanwhile it's as if new Warren struck the financials and really struck the whole market it's a buying opportunity especially for the financials maybe I've never seen before in my entire life trace this is just getting started it's not just subprime you know this is a problem for the entire mortgage industry it's not just people with bad credit that committed to mortgages they can't afford it's not just people with bad credit who are gonna see their home equity vanish and it's not limited to mortgage credit Americans are gonna have a difficult time borrowing money to buy cars to buy furniture to buy appliances you know foreigners around the world have been lending us money for years they're now finding out that we can't afford to repay this is going to be an enormous credit crunch the party is over for the United States we cannot continue borrowing to live beyond our means and and consuming foreign products subprime is tiny subprime is a tiny tiny blip it's not tiny and again it's not just subprime it's the entire mortgage market right everyone all right we're disagreeing wasn't the wrong well you're simply wrong about this I'm not wrong yes boys votes for the whole mortgage market are tiny no but it's good just give it time wait till all these mortgages reset wait till people realize okay so you're saying it's gonna be yet to come Charles you were just speaking what do you think I think volatility is going to be here until we can look at the books a major financial so that means until the next round of earnings but I think the worst is over then well I think stocks will be a heck of a lot higher a year from now they are now Tracy yeah but we have more volatility to go at least their September the big banks the central banks still have plenty of big guns to fire they'll farm when necessary the worst is over Peter Miele go razor blades are in order the worst is yet to come the fundamentals are not sound they're awful if the fundamentally sound we wouldn't be having these problems all right faranzano you get to buy blue chip stocks at discount prices but our pro site you can do that right now it's time to get more for your money then what have you got my friend well the financials as I keep saying are just super bargains I particularly like Merrill Lynch which is an astonishingly well-run company you know a couple of days ago was traded barely more than seven times earnings financials typically trades a low P but this is it a joke this stock is they might as well be a boat again and cereal box I'm giving it away that's a cheap it is Charles what do you think of that yeah I'd like to financials to Merrill isn't my top pick in a group I think bears probably the cheapest although the risk is and some of the others are better but you know the financial is a great place absolutely so what are you doing - I again like then like the financials I like Goldman Sachs it's like getting Dolce Gabanna on sale this is the creme de la creme of Wall Street it's cheap isn't it still up substantially year-over-year it is down and it's probably actually gonna go further and I think that people should start nibbling at this thing look stay away from the financials they're toxic they're not cheap they're expensive you think you think they're at low Peas they have no earnings their earnings are gonna disappear I remember think I've gotta learn Eastern he'd been last year when people are talking about what happens last year when people were recommending home builders and they were talking about they're at five or six times earnings I said those earnings are fantasy they're not gonna be hearing about their no I don't want to I know there's a lot there's a lot of losses coming up in the future these financials are gonna get hit and they're going to get hit hard don't believe what these alright Peter I wish we had more time with you I know you want to continue that expose on Santa Claus well I think it's gonna be an issue but I think the economy in general is gonna be a bigger issue I think certainly by November it'll be obvious to just about everybody that we're in a pretty severe recession I think a lot of the voters already know that just some of the people here in Wall Street haven't figured it out yet but I think that the recession the economy in general is will be a much bigger issue and unfortunately I think you know it's not tax cuts that we need we really need a lot of spending cuts the government has to cut spending because if they cut taxes and then just print the difference what we get is inflation instead so we have a little bit more money in our paychecks but we have to pay a lot more for food we have to pay a lot more for energy and of course eventually we're gonna see a big increase in interest rates as a result of all this inflation right Charles the crystal ball well between boom and bust I'll go with boom I know the first half of the year is gonna be tough there's no doubt about it but I think by the second half of the year all these interest rate cuts will work their way through the system obviously I think the housing market would be a lot better than it's been 2007 the auto market jobs unemployment about four point seven percent and I think Peter inflation is going to be held in check what do you like Charles watch to mutual now I have to caveat upfront this is a high-risk play we're catching a falling load kidding what do you got for us well I think in general people should stay away from stocks it's gonna be another bad year I'm recommending the ETF GLD I mean gold has been doing incredibly well as I mentioned earlier was up 33 percent last year I think Gold's gonna go over $1000 an ounce next year I think US stocks I think the Dow is gonna go to 16,000 but the big winner will be Nasdaq so I think everyone should have some exposure to them well it might be a big year there's big losses and you know I think I think what's gonna happen now is we're gonna see the subprime type loss scenario unfolding in other asset classes such as bonds backed by auto loans credit card debt and that's really gonna you know pull the rug out from under the consumer when not only can you borrow money to buy a house but he can't borrow money to buy a car he can't use his credit card at the department store because the people who hold all this debt and Wall Street secure ties these bonds the same way they did with the subprime bonds they're gonna lose a lot of money and it's going to be a bigger
Comments 0