저자: 미상 · 외국인
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비트코인은 불확실성 속 위험회피(risk-off) 자산이자 디지털 금으로 기능하며, 지정학·통화 희석 리스크 헤지 수단이다. 시장 해설가들이 비트코인을 위험선호(risk-on) 자산으로 보는 내러티브는 잘못이며 고용지표 등과 연결짓는 것도 혼란을 준다. 블랙록 보고서는 2023년 SVB 사태 때 비트코인이 30% 상승하며 음(-)의 베타를 보였다고 제시한다. S&P500과의 상관관계는 2015년 이후 낮다. 해설자는 비트코인을 부채·통화 희석 시대의 장기 대안 자산으로 본다. 다만 영상 자체는 단기 가격 예측을 하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
bitcoin's value often rises in times of uncertainty acting as a risk-off asset offering a hedge against traditional Market volatility and economic instability you know I believe it goes up as if the world is more frightened if people have fearful of geopolitical risk they're fearful of their own risk um it's no different than what gold represented over thousands of years it is a it is a it is a asset class that that protects you but others argue Bitcoin behaves as a CL CLC risk on asset thriving in times of global liquidity expansion know if we look at that fed interest rate cut Bitcoin is the best performing asset so far golden oil Futures are kind of second um there's a new study that just came out from Linn Alden and Sam gallagan that uh said Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset when it comes to Global liquidity and so 83% of the time Bitcoin moves with global liquidity it's more than S&P or any other asset and so if you look at not just the interest rate Cuts now M2 money supply is expanding and also we have Cuts going on in China and elsewhere and so I I think that Bitcoin ends up being a big winner whenever we get kind of cheap money Flo uh flooding into the system so which is it Black Rock has just released a new report on bitcoin and here's the narrative they're pushing a key takeaway from black Rock's report is how bitcoin's unique traits like being non-sovereign and free from political risk position it is more of a risk-off asset let's hear from Robbie mitnik Black Rock's head of digital assets speaking with Bloomberg to break down why these properties make Bitcoin stand out but with those characteristics does bitco coin face a perception challenge many still view it as simply tracking the equity Market but with higher volatility I guess how hard is the sell when you think about the retail investor base that can get into this if you're trying to tell them it's digital gold yet the volatility is still so high and many people don't understand exactly what it is at the end of the day is it something that will eventually be used as more um payment methods moving forward across different parts of the world is it something that you hold and never sell right how do you then make that case to a generation of people who have not gone into this asset sure well when you think about Bitcoin we think of it primarily as an emerging Global monetary alternative right it is a scarce Global decentralized uh non-sovereign asset and it is an asset which has no country specific risk has no traditional counterparty risk so these are interesting properties when you think of it from an investment perspective particularly in a world where there's growing concerns over uh you know money printing currency debasement risks political fiscal uh sustainability challenges in the US or elsewhere and so that resonates frankly with a lot of investors goes back to what we talked about earlier with the risk on piece it confuses investors when people talk about it as risk on because based on the properties that I just described you would think of it as risk off and that's where I think it has a marketing problem so it you could say that and so you know the reality is there's probably two or three things a year that happen typically that actually impact the fundamental value of Bitcoin this year I would argue there's been four but that makes it hard to write daily stories right and so you see this uh instinct to kind of point to whatever's happening in equities or unemployment or jobs numbers or manufacturing which really has no connection to Bitcoin now mitnik highlights how bitcoin's lack of sovereign and political risk makes it stand out as a unique asset but do pointing to external factors like jobs which Black Rock argues have no real connection to Bitcoin undermine the very properties that make it different according to Mitch's report the fundamentals of Bitcoin have been muddled by market commentators The Narrative around how to think about Bitcoin from a risk perspective has been muddled and I think um it's actually just this amazing own goal that the industry uh has scored on itself when we think about sort of crypto Market commentary research type notes that exist um you know our view would be fundamentally uh Bitcoin is a is an uncorrelated uh asset it has its own unique set of risks that are uh very distinct and in some cases probably uh you could argue inverted versus the risks that you know stocks and other so-called risk on assets hold uh but for some reason and I have some theories as to how this happened I don't think it was intentional um I think that sort of crypto research Community has perpetuated and reinforced this narrative that Bitcoin is a risk on asset and that's been very damaging and confusing because a lot of institutional investors they kind of see and hear the digital gold thing and they get it and they see that role in its portfolio as a result that's a little bit like gold but it's going to be more volatile more risky higher upside higher downside uh but but nonetheless something that you think about as a potential hedge against money printing currency debasement inflation geopolitical disorder uh you know political fiscal stress in the US Etc but then uh you know people talk about it well bitcoin's down because you know non-farm payrolls came in weak or the ISM Manufacturing Index was soft and they go what it's fascinating because because uh the industry has taken something that doesn't really have a fundamental basis and repeated it enough times kind of blindly that it's starting to actually seep into the narrative and the trading data in a real way and so now you have to go is it going to be more driven by what fundamentally makes sense or is it be more driven by what the narrative is saying mitchnick argues that the misguided narrative linking bitcoin's performance to events like jobs reports or non-farm payrolls has confused investors and damaged bitcoin's image by focusing too much on short-term Market factors commentators may be overshadowing bitcoin's true value which is rooted in its fundamentals and instead tying it to trends that typically impact traditional equities but if that's the case and analysts like PP Lino who argue that Bitcoin follows cheap money flowing into the system are wrong what examples do we have a Bitcoin showing its negative beta in relation to traditional banking or financial systems let's go back to mitnik who points out in the report that Bitcoin tends to perform well during major disruptive events he specifically highlights the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and Regional banking crisis in 2023 where Bitcoin demonstrated its negative Beta And so when you look at you know some of the major disruptive events of the Last 5 Years Bitcoin has generally performed very well coming out of those events but sometimes it sells off at the start because of that reflexive programming uh to think of it as a quote risk on asset but then people look at and go wait you know chaos turmoil disorder potential for money printing government stimulus Etc that actually is perhaps bullish for Bitcoin and then you see the the market reaction like you if you look at the Sila Valley Bank uh and Regional banking crisis in March 2023 that was probably the best example of Bitcoin behaving kind of as a hedge right Bitcoin was up 30% in the span of a couple of weeks as fundamentally you know would make sense when there's stress in the banking system and and fears over that I think the main reason that was such a clean anecdote for it was the crypto uh research Community didn't have time to screw it up mitnik even points out that during these downturns Bitcoin often experiences initial sell-offs driven by reflexive programming set by traditional crypto Market commentators he goes further to explain that bitcoin's rapid rise during the regional banking crisis where it showed its inverted beta was largely due to the speed at which the events unfolded preventing Market commentators from interfering with bitcoin's fundamentals since we've mentioned beta a few times let's break it down beta measures how an asset moves in relation to the overall Market a beta of one means Bitcoin moves exactly in sync with the market zero means no connection and minus one means it moves in the opposite direction this is important because bitcoin's low correlation with traditional markets like the S&P 500 makes it an attractive diversifier black Rock's graph shows how both Bitcoin and gold have maintained a low correlation with the S&P 500 since 2015 meaning their prices don't move much in sync with the stock market this low correlation makes them valuable for investors looking to diversify offering protection against Market volatility and traditional Equity risks although the graph shows bitcoin's beta is close to zero or even inverted at times black Rock's report isn't claiming Bitcoin isn't a risky asset they acknowledge its high volatility but emphasize that its risk drivers are fundamentally different from equities Bitcoin is obviously a risky asset okay but our view would be it is not a risk-on asset that that risk on riskof framework that exists for traditional finance and it has its shortcomings obviously uh as well but it really just doesn't apply to bitcoin and so when you try to extrapolate this idea Bitcoin is a risky asset that makes it risk on you know we think that fundamentally doesn't make sense Nick makes it clear that while Bitcoin has its risks it doesn't fit neatly into the traditional Frameworks used for other Financial assets this isn't just a perspective held by black rocks crypto division it's a view shared by the entire firm is this an alternative uh in order to be able because of the a deficit maybe something long-term people should have absolutely that allows you to have maybe uncorrelated non-correlated type of returns I believe it is an instrument that you invest in when you're more frightened though it is an instrument when you believe that how countries are debasing their currency de debasing their currency by excess deficits and some countries are I believe we have um countries where you're frightened of your everyday existence and have an opportunity to invest in in a a something that is outside your country's uh you know control then you can have more financial control and so I'm a a major believer that there is a role for Bitcoin and and portfol folios I believe you're going to see that as an as one of the asset classes that we all look at I look at it as digital gold as I said before and I do believe there's a a there's a there's a real need for everyone to look at it as as one alternative to I would say the optimism that I have in the world if you want to hedge hope Bitcoin is not a an instrument for Hope unless you're hopeful you're going to make a lot of money on it but I I look at it as a vehicle in which you're expressing your your financial Acumen in something that you're more frightened of the world you're more frighten of your existence and I believe there's a great industrial use for it and and I think a lot of people are missing that think also points out that Bitcoin serves as a hedge against issues like the rising us deficit which has recently hit all-time highs he highlights how Bitcoin offers more financial control especially during times of uncertainty and especially for people in countries where their currencies are being debased it's true that Bitcoin is unlike any other asset hard-coded to only ever have 21 million in Supply giving it the clearest monetary policy in the world anyone can learn exactly how it operates its Detachment from traditional risks makes it increasingly appealing not just to retail investors but also to institutional investors and financial advisers while Bitcoin is still a relatively new asset it's clear it doesn't fit neatly into the traditional risk on framework that many Market commentators apply instead it's a unique risky asset set with a risk-off framework supported by its distinctive properties if you enjoyed this video please drop a like and consider subscribing we hope to keep you ahead of the financial curve
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