저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
기관 자산배분자들이 비트코인과 금의 낮은 상관관계(0.1)를 근거로 비트코인 비중을 점진적으로 늘리고 금을 추가하고 있다고 주장. 비트코인/금 비율은 장기 상승추세로 전환됐다고 진단. 클래리티법 통과 지연과 규제기관(SEC·CFTC)의 자체 명확화 조치, 차기 행정부 정책 변화 우려를 언급. 장기적으로 낮은 상관관계가 비트코인을 밀어올릴 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
Yeah, it's very interesting. There, if you look since 2019 when institutions became interested in in crypto and Bitcoin specifically, um the correlation between gold, physical gold, and digital gold, Bitcoin, is 0.1. Hardly any correlation at all. Oh. Uh and asset allocators are looking for assets that are not highly correlated.
Well, what had sold off recently? Uh it was Bitcoin. What had appreciated recently? It was gold. Yeah. Uh and so what we're seeing is the Bitcoin to gold ratio has turned around. Uh and if you look at the chart, and we can provide it to you if if you would like to would be great. Yes. Uh you look at the chart, you'll see that even though it's very volatile, Bitcoin to gold, the uptrend long-term uptrend is in place.
Uh and so we believe that asset allocators are short Bitcoin and are probably moving in gradually here and long gold. Uh so they're probably rebalancing a bit and maybe taking their first positions ever in Bitcoin. People talk about how strong October is for Bitcoins, but honestly, I haven't seen it recently this cycle.
Right. month. When can we see the upward going up? Um you know, I think I mean, I never know about months to month and and that's not how how we're thinking about it. Um we thought if clarity passed, the Clarity Act passed, uh that that would be a major green light for institutions to move in. And so there's some disappointment about that, and that's one thing that has happened to keep the lid.
But, you know, very quickly after that, the our regulators, both the SEC and the CFTC, came in and said, "Okay, if the legislative process is going to fail here, then we'll come in and provide more clarity ourselves." And so, I think investors are assessing, "Fine, regulators will bring in more clarity.
That's good. But, in the next administration, like if there's a turnover from the Trump administration, will that administration overturn Trump's policies?" So, legislation is hard to overturn. Regulation is a little easier. So, I think you have that kind of debate going on right now. But, I think longer term what's going to be an important force pushing crypto and Bitcoin specifically ahead is is this low correlation with of returns, not only with gold, but with every other asset.
And so, I think asset allocators are waking up to it and thinking, "Well, okay, at least I have to experiment with a 1% position."

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