저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
ROC·ROE 등 재무비율보다 경영진의 신뢰성과 10~15년간 매출 성장 잠재력을 중시한다고 강조. 소형주는 비율 기준으로는 매력적이지 않을 수 있어 비율로 거르지 않는다는 입장. 제품이 20~30년 뒤에도 살아남고 시장점유율을 늘릴지 자문하는 장기 투자 철학. 간단한 예시(Dettol vs Savlon, 제품 인식 차이)로 복잡한 데이터보다 단순한 판단이 중요하다고 설명. 개별 종목 가격 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Whenever whenever we read investment books or speak to general global managers or otherwise, everybody lays emphasis on the return ratios, the importance of cash flows, all of which are very valid points. But if your starting point is to buy a small company whereby it is difficult that the ROC, the ROE, the cash flows will all be measuring up to what is an ideal number.
How do you then distill which company to reject and which company to keep? Because you're starting off on the on a on a on a on a slate wherein all of these ratios will not look attractive. Actually, I do not give much importance to this ROC and ROC and all ROE and all across your investments. Yeah.
You've never bought a stock based on these. Yeah. Based on these, I never bought any stock. It should be reasonable. You cannot get a small company. You cannot get ROC or are you 20 or 25 then stock would also be expensive. It has to be below five okay or whatever parameters whatever parameters you are you are saying it shouldn't match them then price will be uh dear will be expensive so I usually do not see all these things I see couple of things only one thing is uh which will come into that smile concept which will come which will cover in the smile concept so I cover I just only see that if the management is okay all right and they have a clean track record and they fire in the belly and there is a potential the company can uh grow its turnover year on year for next 10 15 years then I can sit in this company for 20 30 years.
Wow. So my approach is very simple. It's very very very simple approach and as I always say that investing is also very simple. It's very actually but it's not easy because we sometime try to make things complex. Mhm. I will give you an example. This example I had given long back on some channel. I would like to repeat that if you allow me.
Of course. You remember that is there and Savlon is there. Okay. Both are doing the same thing. Okay. They are curing your wound. Okay. Uh I read a long time back that market share of that is somewhere around 80% plus and Savlon is maybe 15% plus. Detl is manufactured by Rakit and Beckenser and Sablon made by Johnson and Johnson's both are worldclass conglomerate.
So why the market share of deadl could be more? So I realized because when you apply that it burns it gives you odd order like bad smell it gives you feel okay my god I'm getting cured but salvon doesn't burn or doesn't give you any bad smell also. So maybe people thinking that is not curing me. So this is what h what is happening in in our investing also.
If I give you a lot of complex data 50 data I will put in front of you then you go mad. Small investor do not have that kind of capacity to understand those data. Okay. It is better than you invest through mutual fund. Okay. And don't bang your head in the market. So my approach as per my education also my approach is very simple.
Even now, even now also yes, obviously you see once when you come into the market that time you can say a small investor or a new investors or he looks for EPS. He's very much fascinated about EPS. what is the EPS and what is the P ratio and all and when you grow with time then you look for the top line you forget about the EPS EPS grows EPS comes down what is the top line of this company that is more fascinating uh ratio you can call it and after that actually you are looking for the concept okay what is the concept in this in the product is it innovative or not it it has a mode or not it is competitive or not then or this concept will work or So this is what you begin your
natural progression progression right so nowadays actually what I am thinking as you said even now see now why I'm what I'm thinking that can I be a part of this company for 30 years or not this is what actually nowadays I'm asking myself would I be able to remain with this product with this company till I live this is what I'm educating I'm trying to come to that terms where I have to think forget about this ROC roe or whatever all these things would I Would the product survive for 20 years?
Not because of in the era of this disruption. Would the product survive for 50 years or 20 years or 15 years or not? If it would survive, it will keep on taking the market share. Then I'm with the company.
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