저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상의 결론은 다우지수 1만 돌파는 미국 경제 회복이 아니라 달러 약세와 인플레이션에 따른 명목 상승이라는 것이다. 주가 상승의 원인: 다우가 약 140포인트 올라 1만을 넘었지만 펀더멘털 개선 때문이 아니라 달러 가치 하락으로 명목 지수가 올라간 것이다. 달러와 원자재: 달러지수가 52주 신저가(75.50 하회)를 기록했고 주요 통화가 모두 달러 대비 상승했다. 유가는 배럴당 75달러를 넘어 약 90달러까지 갈 것으로 봤다. 금·은은 보합이었지만 최근 며칠 큰 폭으로 올랐다. 주식과 달러의 관계: 과거 건전한 강세장은 주가와 달러가 함께 강했는데, 지금처럼 주가 상승과 달러 약세가 겹치는 것은 이례적이며 랠리가 경기 강세가 아닌 경기 약세와 인플레 공포를 반영한다고 봤다. 명목 상승은 되돌려질 수 있다. 아이슬란드 사례: GDP가 약 8% 감소하고 실업률은 오르는데도 인플레이션은 11%다. 통화 가치 하락 때문이며, 실업과 고인플레가 함께 나타나는 것이 일반적이라고 주장했다. 달러 하락의 필요성과 정책 비판: 달러 하락은 불가피하고 필요하지만 현재 정책(저금리, 양적 완화, 외국 중앙은행의 달러 떠받치기)이 하락을 지연시킨다. 달러가 일시 하락 후 안정되려면 통화 증발을 멈춰야 한다. 의료보험 법안: 상원 통과 중인 건강보험 확대는 비용이 크고 이를 돈 찍기로 조달할 것이므로 인플레이션을 낳는다. 이것이 달러 약세와 원자재 상승의 이유다. 출연자 전망: 명목 주가 상승은 결국 꺾이고 시장이 조정받을 수 있으며, 달러 약세와 인플레 압력이 계속된다고 봤다. 리스크 요인: 정책 지속 시 달러 하락 지속, 인플레 확대, 명목 주가 상승의 반전 가능성.
다듬은 글
hi everyone its Peter Shiff it is Wednesday October 14 2009 well you're gonna hear a lot of talk today on television about the Dow moving above 10,000 it was up about 140 points today and I'm sure the Talking Heads are gonna try to spin this into why this shows that the economy is turning around that the stimulus is working or that maybe the health care plan that is making its way through the Senate is not as bad as people think and so the market is ratifying the strength in the economy by moving above 10,000 of course this is nonsense the market is going up no question about that but it's not going up because of underlying improvement in the US economy in fact it's going up despite the fact that the underlying fundamentals are getting worse for the US economy what we have is inflation and sure the Dow is going up but that's because we're measuring it in US dollars that are going down the dollar was clobbered again today the dollar index closed at a new 52 week low we're now trading below 75 50 in the dollar index all the major currencies were up today against the dollar gold and silver took a breather they were basically flat but they've made significant gains in the last few trading days so this is really about an inflation story look at the price of oil crude oil closed above $75 of barrel I think it's actually just broken out of some overhead resistance if you look at a chart of crude oil I think the next stop is about $90 a barrel so if people are happy about the Dow going up they also have to be happy about oil prices going up and about the price of just about everything else going up of course I think once a Wall Street comes to terms with the the true state of our economy then even some of these nominal gains in stock prices will likely will likely turn you know turn turned down and the market will resume its dissent which will be particularly problematic when the Dow is actually falling in value and the dollar is falling too you know the relationship that we have right now where the stock market goes up and the dollar goes down really historically doesn't have a precedent and it's not a good thing if you look at bull markets of the past legitimate bull markets when the stock market is strong the dollar is strong the fact that the stock market is going up with a weak dollar tells you something it tells you that - something wrong with this rally that it's not about the strength of our economy but actually about the weakness of our economy and people fearing inflation and I know people keep saying well how can we have inflation you know the economy is still weak there's still a lot of unemployment look at the article I put on my website I yesterday about Iceland you know Iceland is having a gdp is declining by about 8 percent right now but unemployment is rising it's not actually as bad as it is here yet but it's close but inflation is running at 11% and the reason it's running at 11% is because the Icelandic króna is losing value just like the dollar so for people who say you can't have a weakening economy and accelerating inflation at the same time all we have to do is look at Iceland for an example and of course Iceland is not the only example it's it's it's the rule not the exception most countries that have high unemployment also have high inflation and and vice-versa you know that's on if it's the unfortunate a reality and the unfortunate consequence of all the bad monetary and fiscal policy that the dollar has to go down at this point it's not a good thing you know it's just like if somebody is that you know doesn't study skips class the consequence is that maybe they're gonna flunk their course it's not a good thing but if they didn't want to flunk the course they should have studied they should have paid attention in class there was an op-ed today in the Financial Times that I read talking about the fact that the US dollar has to go down we should welcome that decline and that it's a good thing I agree that it has to go down but I don't think it's a good thing as I said it's just a reality it's an unfortunate consequence of what we've done the problem is the policies that we're pursuing now assure that the dollar will not stop falling unfortunately the dollar has to go down but it doesn't have to continue to fall we need $2 to fall and then sustain itself at a lower level and one day rise again but that's not going to happen if we keep praying money if we keep interest rates so low and if foreign central banks keep propping up the dollar it's delaying this imbalance they need to allow it to happen but we need to do our part of the bargain we just can't keep inflating we the Raney's cost in you know when people are trying to say that this the rally is also a positive endorsement of the fact that you have this health care plan moving through the Senate now I don't think it's that people think it's a good thing again I think more people understand that if the US government is going to extend health insurance to millions of Americans that don't have it it's going to cost a lot of money and they're gonna pay for it by creating the money out of thin air they're gonna pay for all the extra health care with inflation and so that's again why the dollar is falling that's why commodity prices are rising and that's the reason that the Dow Jones is above ten thousand today not because of any underlying improvement in the US economy anyway that's it for today I'll be back again soon take care of
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