There's little inflation risk now, the Fed needs to move, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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Siegel은 8월 초 시장 급락 당시 긴급 75bp 인하 주장을 했으나 과도했다고 일부 철회. 현재 인플레 위험은 거의 없고 리스크는 하방(경기)에 있으며, 연준이 금리를 너무 늦게 내리고 있다고 봄. 고용 지표(신규실업수당청구) 안정과 주거 물가 대체지표를 근거로 제시. S&P·다우 급반등 언급.

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01. Jeremy seagull Professor it's great to have you back how are you I'm fine thank you Scott you of course made headlines and then some on that Monday morning when the you know markets were under some severe pressure we were worried about the economy we're worried about the unwind of the carry trade for for all of our sakes let's revisit this I want our viewers to listen to you from that morning on squawkbox and what you said and we can talk about it on the other side this may surprise people I'm calling for 75 basis point emergency cut in the FED funds rate with another 75 basis point cut indicated for next month at the September meeting um and and that's minimum all right so I think you walked it back a little bit with our own uh team on on but do you want to do over on that you wish you could have that back uh well I think it came off that I thought the economy was falling apart which I didn't I I wanted to shake things up I didn't want pal to make the same mistakes uh on the way down as he made on the way up listen Yan is right we are just about at balanced risks uh if you're at balanced risks the FED itself says the FED funds rate should be 2.8 um I wasn't even moving anywhere near there um all the forward-looking models you know the the John Taylor model that you go on and on they're all pointing to four or less now yes it isn't to to do an emergency cut is is out of the normal procedures of the FED I just am saying that with risks balanced um why are we still at Double what the FED says is the longterm rate and uh I you know okay we don't have to do emergency and then and and then 75 I just don't want him I don't want Paul to go too slow um yes the data came in better last week um but I think the risks are fully two-sided why aren't we down I mean we've all been there I think in life right Professor you said something you wish you could have you wish you could have it back yeah I mean I I know when I came back it said oh you know Dr zel thinks a disaster is coming and I just want and and and yes that that I would have stated it differently now saying listen we should be down in the 4% now you know calling for emergency and in 75 is so out of the realm of what the FED generally does which by the way I think the FED generally acts way too slow so I was sort of trying to push him into some more speed but yeah I I I wouldn't come on as as I did right there in in the grips of the panic and by the way I didn't say there was a recession I didn't say it's a bare Market I didn't say dump your stocks uh I'm just saying that when I look at the risk today I see very little if any inflation risk and if there is risk it's on the downside and I ask myself why have we not moved one basis point are you surprised like many others are at the magnitude and the speed of the Snapback that we've had for stocks we're having this conversation the Dow is back above 40,000 for crying out loud I don't know if many people saw that happening a week ago Monday well uh certainly I mean we got great economic news I mean so the ism service came out that afternoon East fears and then the jobless claims which had been rising Rising Rising and I I've often said that when it starts moving above 240,000 a week I begin to get worried and it was and then it fell below I mean that that did surprise me so ah you can you know heave a sigh of relief uh but but let me put it this way Scott just because if you're going 90 miles an hour and don't have an accident uh okay you're lucky um but doesn't mean you shouldn't slow down and it doesn't mean that the FED should say hey uh you know five and a third is is just the right rate for the FED funds rate because I think given what I see in the labor market and particularly the inflation Market you know we got two good readings certainly yesterday and today the government itself has come out with several experimental housing uh shelter uh price indexes that don't have the lagged effects of their official ones and when you plug those in believe it or not you are at or even below uh the 2% uh level if you put in those new indexes so given all that I'm just saying just don't rate why the risks are are on that other side given you haven't moved