저자: Ken · 외국인
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CTKS 방법론으로 MSFT, TSLA, BTC의 스마트머니 매수/매도 구간을 제시. 주요 지수(S&P500, 나스닥)와의 높은 상관성을 강조하며 지수 방향에 따른 조건부 시나리오를 설명. 비트코인은 2.3만 달러 저항, 2.2만 달러 지지 및 2.14~2.08만 달러 매수 구간을 언급.
다듬은 글
hi everyone I'm Ken from crypto trading KS let's run the numbers Bitcoin is currently up 0.57 to 22 793 ethereum is down 2.05 to 1626. Tesla and Microsoft are headlining the first busy earnings week of 2023 turning first to Microsoft Microsoft has been coming down with the S P 500 you can see when we overlay the S P 500 we get that same directional correlation if we overlay the NASDAQ and take the S P 500 off we can see the NASDAQ and Microsoft are very closely correlated professionals know that looking at the major indices will actually help significantly on understanding component movements hence we can see that Microsoft came down with the major indexes therefore Microsoft has been following the market if the market improves Microsoft will improve if the market weakens Microsoft will weaken the same goes with Tesla in yesterday's video episode 782 I talk about the S P 500 and a potential Golden Cross incoming it's important to keep this in mind when you're assessing Microsoft and Tesla when we look through the ctks method at Microsoft's support and resistance levels in terms of all of price history Microsoft has an absolute truckload of smart money cell levels between 246 and 257.
these are not based on recent price history they're based on all of price history the good news is that Microsoft also has a couple of smart money buy levels between 228 and 231 and between 217 and 223 if the market continues to rally and keeping your eye on the major indices is really important Microsoft will start to struggle through this particular area if it comes down to here it should find intermediate support and then bounce up to seek to attack this area just keep in mind if we actually start to break below 228 there's a bit of an air gap and then 222 is where we'll find Smart money stepping in just be aware of these three areas let's turn our attention to Tesla from a professional level the first question you should ask yourself how did Tesla fare up against the major market indices such as the S P 500 and the NASDAQ let's have a look with the S P 500 we can see that Tesla was basically following the directional gravity of the S P 500 sometimes stronger sometimes weaker and this is going part and parcel with every single stock and also cryptos there are asset Pacific or security specific events that occur that can push them up or under relative price movement in the major indices and of course Elon selling his shares in Tesla did not help Tesla share price the thing to keep in mind is that these major stocks follow the major indices because they're part of them let's compare Tesla to the NASDAQ and we can see that directional bias just over extending and under extending and of course a little bit of variation around here but if you actually zoom in you'll see this directional correlation playing out with uncanny accuracy if you go down to a actual microscopic level you will see that the major indices are very very important and typically what happens when people get into any kind of investing they just look at their specific beloved whatever that is it's a stock or it's a crypto or it's Forex it doesn't matter whatever that thing is and then they tend to exclude everything else that's a really big mistake and when you've been in the market for decades and decades you realize that the major indices are very very important when we use the ctks method to understand what Tesla's smart money buy and sell levels are we get a very different picture than what we saw with Microsoft Tesla has more smart money buy levels and far fewer smart money cell levels above its price Tesla is currently 133.42 there are smart money cell levels between 140 and 144.
there are smart money buy levels between 115 and 118. if we see the major market indices continue to pile up and go up as they have been doing we would anticipate that Tesla would encounter its first real resistance around this 143 level if we see the main Market starting to sell down and prices always moving in a wave so these things are always on the ball but if that did we could get down to 116 before we see a bounce upwards just keep these things in mind I think my arrow was a little drunk on too much Chinese New Year's celebration Happy Chinese New Year everyone let's have a look at Bitcoin and overlaying the S P 500 we've seen a lot of weakness in Bitcoin relative to the S P 500 over time and with the FTX debacle Sam bankman not freed committing fraud that was not a good day for the crypto Market but fraud occurs in the stock market as well fraud just tends to occur anywhere people are gold and silver have had their share of dubious actions let's say but the one thing that we can see even though this FTX meltdown in crypto occurred when the market started to turn around crypto recovered very very quickly looking at the NASDAQ we can see the NASDAQ and Bitcoin were following very very nicely we saw that the NASDAQ actually recovered when Sam backman free decided to Crypt dude nuke the crypto Market this is why we pay a lot of attention to the major market indices when assessing the smart money buy and sell levels on bitcoin we can see that this particular area from about 23 000 up to around 23 300 was a fairly steep area of smart money cell resistance we actually came up hit that level and have retraced if we go down down to for example between twenty two thousand three hundred and around twenty two thousand we're going to have a lot of smart money buy orders in this particular area so we could actually witness a bit of a pullback and then a charging up to see if we can take out this smart money resistance these cell levels around the 23 000 Mark if we actually lose this twenty two thousand dollar level the next area of major smart money buying is ranging in between twenty one thousand four hundred and around twenty thousand eight hundred we have a philosophy inside our Global family you don't need certainty you need a strategy to profit from uncertainty how do we profit from uncertainty we need to get into synchronization with the market that's why we do our ctks code our daily three-dimensional risk management every day we know that we control the trade or investment but it's the market that controls the return so we need to be very very mindful we cannot force the market to give us a return we just have to move within its confines and its boundaries if you're buying Microsoft or Tesla or you're investing and trading in it I hope that knowing where the smart money will step in and step out will help you wishing everybody a fantastic weekend and I look forward to catching up with you tomorrow stay safe out there my friends and bye for now
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