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a set of top trades that you want to keep an eye on going forward in the next few days and weeks now i want to be super clear here these are swing trades some of them are trades that i might actually hold longer but i want to be clear this video is different from my typical fundamental analyses videos these are more interested in looking at market swings so let's talk about the first one but of course first i have to remind you to get 30 totally for free with m1 finance deposit 100 get 30 bucks boom pow yeah and deposit a hundred bucks with weeble and get at least twenty one dollars if not up to sixteen hundred dollars links down below let's go so let's talk about the first one a continued run on gm general motors has a market cap of 78.4 billion dollars and sold 7.7 million vehicles in 2019.
neo on the other hand sold 43 000 cars in 2020 so literally one half of one percent of the cars that gm sold and has a 91 billion dollar market cap which is about 13 billion dollars larger than gm's today microsoft announced that it is partnering with gm's cruise technology with a mega 2 billion dollar investment cruz is gm's driverless startup and has a very similar name to chevy super cruise which is kind of like the autopilot on tesla except for chevy and cadillac's chevy super cruise only works on mapped highways and has a little camera on the dashboard that watches your eyes to make sure you're paying attention well that same technology is created by the company crews which is a company that gm bought tesla keep in mind makes you jiggle the little wheel to make sure you're paying attention which means a lot of people don't actually pay attention uh lucid by the way i also just discovered also plans to use a little camera to make sure that you're paying attention on the dashboard so we'll see how that goes but anyway the cruise startup alone right now is valued at around 30 billion dollars which if you subtract that from gm's market cap that's like almost half of gm's market cap right now cruz is going to be using microsoft's azure cloud platform to help get crews to driverless vehicles and eventually wait for it robo taxis so really about 40 of every dollars that you're investing into gm right now are potentially going right into crews just based on valuation metrics here and to me gm here could actually be a modern kind of competitive play against tesla and google's driverless waymo division in you know a few years from now when they actually start getting to autonomous vehicles on the road not now but we're starting to see that ev excitement go over to gm we're seeing that stampede run over to gm gm last year was up like 14 the thing's up like 20 this year and we're only 19 days into this year so far with way less trading days in now keep this in mind recently the rsi is through the roof so if you're looking at trading technicals it's like oh come on man this this thing is over bought this thing is like how can we buy this thing right now but folks that that ev rage and and this realization of the size uh that cruises relative to gm as a company itself it kind of justifies this right here uh we'll see how this goes and volumes through the roof over here in the last few days but basically gm is becoming a biden play and honestly it's probably better to throw money at gm than to throw your money into some crazy eevee spack that could end up nickeling out because nickel ing out because there's so many eevee specs that just aren't actually producing products yet sure look i might be excited about lucid but you gotta have like balls of steels to go in deep on lucid because they haven't actually sold a single car yet so if you're nervous about the ev you're looking for something a little safer 30 billion dollar market cap built into gm here on cruise technology that that's really interesting v a or i'm sorry vw on the other hand get this vw on the other hand they had insane excitement in germany over yay we have the vwid.3 uh and and yay ev sales are doubling in europe in 2020 and yay the id3 is so cool and awesome but the wall street journal just destroyed volkswagen for all of the problems the id3 is having because it's been plagued with software issues and this is where there's actually a big lesson about gm here regarding volkswagen they say quote what they didn't consider electric vehicles are more about software than hardware and producing exquisitively engineered gas-powered cars doesn't translate into coding savvy really good line there but again what makes gm different from from volkswagen in this case well what makes it different is the fact that gm bought cruz in 2016 for 1 billion dollars the company had 40 employees then now cruz has 2 000 employees gm is literally well cruise the part within the umbrella of gm is literally becoming a mega powerhouse of autonomous innovation right now right in front of our faces you cannot short gm if anything you want to use you want to you want to spend some money and you want to go shopping today whenever you watch this video or next time the market's open folks call options on gm are looking a little juicy and again the stocks run up so i don't know that i would go with anything super short term because in the super short term we know when we've got an overbought we can always go right back down the markets are really good about punishing us when we chase the whoo unless you're just like really lucky with the timing uh but folks gm pay attention to this one the size of crews within gm blew me away okay next up folks expi the online work from home real estate broker folks of this pandemic has accelerated a shift to working from home duh i don't think any of y'all can disagree with me on that but most people don't even know what the hell expi is and i yeah i should have said he double hockey sticks but i'm that passionate about this people are clueless about what expi is what if i told you that expi that's the ticker symbol or exp real estate was a company that basically let you hang your real estate license if you're a real estate agent with a virtual brokerage where you could attend virtual training sessions and basically never have to set foot into a traditional office again you could literally work work from home doing youtube videos naked or in your underwear i'm not i got pants on but you could and you could still be a real estate broker well that is the beauty about exp it has jumped on the revolution of working from home and normalizing being a real estate agent who works from home and who doesn't work for an office i am a real estate broker i get this model people are always like oh kevin but don't you gotta have a real an office as a real estate agent no way i anytime i take meetings i either meet at my clients property if they're a seller or my buyers i meet for coffee or even new sellers i meet for coffee sometimes why because i can buy them whatever i want it's starbucks or coffee bean now things have been a little different during the pandemic but you know you got to eat and drink outside most of the time but the point is expi guess what they just announced two for one stock split i first recommended this stock to all my course members when it was around forty one dollars per share right now it's at about eighty one dollars per share now this is uh that's that's about double okay but it's about to go back to what we bought it for via two for one split which is awesome the split is scheduled for january 29th technically this change is nothing for the fundamentals of the company but what it could do is finally bring that wall street attention to expi that it really deserves expi is a game changer it's revolutionary really excited about that company long term and i have to say i would love a little bit of wall street attention to one of these days a look at shift stock if you haven't looked at that one yet i feel it coming and the data we are looking at as course members that we've been looking at in the last few days reiterates that shift is a buy this is a bonus one i'm not going to go deep into the data in this video maybe tomorrow's video we'll talk about that one more deeply but look into ticker symbol sft shift technologies folks the metrics are looking so good the website analytics the analytics on the business model the inventory models i'm liking where that company could potentially go once it gets that wall street attention which at the moment i think expi is going to be getting that is of course next to jivo jivoji vegevo holy smokes this stock is up over 72 percent giving up just seven percent in after hours so far but wow what a riot i talked about this stock being a potential potential up-and-comer in my course live streams last week and boy oh boy many of you are like kevin i see the momentum and you jumped in and hats off to all of those of you who jumped in as momentum traders you nailed it on this one you nailed it big time on this one it's kind of like all those of you who when last week in the course member live stream i'm like you know what's looking really juicy right now amc call options because it's like at the lowest price it's ever been and the last time i did amc call options i made a butt load of money on it and both of these trades were trades that i was too much of a baby to make because i decided you know i'm going to pay off margin this week i want to reduce my margin otherwise i would have made these trades but no kevin had to pay off margin anyway congratulations to those of you who actually pulled the trigger on those trades even though i was somewhat er not not in the mood for them at the moment so congratulations again i'm glad we were able to talk about them though and i was able to bring them to your attention now gevo let's talk about this one going forward okay gevo this is a company that is pretty much a pure biden play here it manufactures biofuels for planes like uh ethanol uh donald trump was not really good for a company like gevo because donald trump is very pragmatic in that look if something's going to increase the cost of cars or airplane rides i don't want it that's pretty much donald trump's mo gevo is a name that has secured an air force contract in 2012 it's a name that has an agreement with delta to supply 10 million gallons of fuel for the next 10 years per year it's a company that right now has 48.6 million gallons of saf or sustainable aviation fuels under contract we'll just call those safs for now and potentially another 40 or sorry 35 million gallons in contract review plus another 251 million gallons in discussion so right now if we just tied together the gallons that they have under contract in the final stages we've got about 83 million gallons of this saf fuel that gevo might be producing that's enough for about 224 10-hour flights that's um i mean that's okay but it's relatively nominal compared to the amount of flights that we see that are you know all the flights going on throughout the world so it's a small number which potentially sets gevo up for a huge addressable market if safs become more well cheap see right now the saf market share is so teeny tiny because oil is just dirt cheap right now oil costs somewhere around a buck for well i should say jet fuel will cost somewhere around a buck 48 per gallon right now safs way more back when the military did a contract with them safs were selling for somewhere around 58 per gallon back in 2012 there was talk that hey you know for this to actually go mainstream we need gevo you know saf fuel basically to get down to three dollars a gallon that was back when oil prices and airline prices were airline fuel prices or jet fuel prices were around three dollars a gallon as well well now gevo's struggling to get their production costs under three dollars ish uh per gallon based on their their latest filing where i found that they talked about this and we'll talk about that more in a moment but the problem is even though back in 2012 jet fuel was selling for like three bucks a gallon and they're like okay let's get gevo down to three bucks a gallon and cost that's great uh well cool that'd be wonderful uh but now oil prices have fallen even more it's hard to justify paying extra for gevo and even if gevo can produce saf again the sustainable aviation fuel for three dollars a gallon doesn't mean they can sell it for three dollars a gallon because they got r d they got staff they got administration to be profitable they have to sell these down these like fuels for like 10 bucks a gallon so why on earth would an airline pay 10 a gallon if they could get you know regular jet fuel for a dollar 50 a gallon like it's insane you would need an insane amount of subsidies to actually convert a fleet like you wouldn't you would only do a little bit to have the marketing impact of yes we use some sustainable fuels and that's kind of what i think is happening with delta delta by the way and this is uh interesting math here so delta is planning to buy 10 million gallons of gevo fuel per year for the next 10 years that's 10 times 10 that's 100 million gallons well delta values this deal at one billion dollars which kind of implies that delta's paying around ten dollars per gallon for the cheapo fuel uh which again reiterates folks the airlines especially at a time like this and that delta contract was made before the pandemic so it'd be interesting to know what the latest is on that contract so far i wouldn't be surprised if it's all on hold but anyway this stuff at 10 bucks a gallon it's literally liquid gold so why are we even talking about gevo why the heck is gevo up 72 today well folks the only reason is because gevo fell onto the radar because gevo's co-founder francis arnold was named or was named by president biden uh to biden's science team that's it that's literally the announcement that took this 500 million market cap company and and basically almost doubled it uh that announcement right there has a lot of people very very excited about gevo i personally am very very concerned about that price disparity because even if biden comes in and says hey look we'll do a 20 incentive we'll just print money for for gevo or or saf you know sustainable aviation fuels folks still still okay eight bucks to 150 come on man i'm not converting my fleet it's gonna be a lot of money printing or i ain't buying it we'll see the alternative is gevo could also get their production costs down substantially and i think that's the goal is if gevo can get their production costs down substantially to be more at parity with oil great unfortunately the whole ev movement is reducing demand for oil which uh makes that even harder for gevo so you've got really a lot of kind of pulling in different directions here at evo for me if i was in gevo right now i'd probably ring the bell and take profits on this one i'm very happy if you made money on it i would ring the bell make the money get out of there usually i don't recommend selling uh i can't count gevo out though because honestly during the inauguration tomorrow biden could just go up there and go we're gonna make biofuels the number one fuel ever used and the stock's just going to keep going to the moon so be careful pay solid attention to the inauguration because you know this this could be big but for right now it feels more like uh a 10 year out hydrogen play then this is big for tomorrow with the exception of hype and speculation which is definitely driving the price right now so be careful on this one uh i i would take profits on this one still think it's a great company do not don't get me wrong still think the the technology the service they provide and their mission for the world good in terms of price action scary good if you owned it not so good if you want to get into it next folks shopify a little nervous about this one so i'm seeing look shopify is so cool like entrepreneurs tend to prefer online entrepreneurs at least tend to prefer shopify over square but the business entrepreneur the person has the you know ground location prefers square over shopify because they integrate better blah blah blah blah shopify is competing with shaw you know square on this whatever y'all have your own opinions on shopify versus square and i know that and many of you all are like kevin we know you're more bullish on etsy than you are square and shopify combined and that's that is kind of true uh but i do like square a lot better than i like shopify but i still like shopify one thing that i want to say though is take a look at this this made me a little nervous okay so i'm gonna jump on over to this chart right here so what this chart shows us is square up this is the website you go to when when you want to sign up for square it actually redirects to square.com uh anyway square from july we've got this nice growth here right this is good uh then we've got uh just for comparison here uh i threw in squarespace which you know it has its little ups and downs but it's it's also kind of been trending uh up here so uh we like we like squarespace again just comparing to squarespace uh then something that's very interesting uh and this is the more important uh aspect to consider when we look at this chart right here uh so really out of everything this is this is what what is interesting to me is why is it that shopify.com is actually showing a little bit of a decline right here but not only that we've also got a little bit of a flattening at the my shopify url which my shopify is usually where people log into their store so look the the store logins are kind of flattening a little bit on website ranking here and the shopify sign up data is kind of slowing down a little bit again this isn't a square video so we don't have to care so much about square.com versus square up and all this kind of stuff right now we just want to focus on shopify and to me as a short-term metric i thought that was a little bit of a head scratcher why why is shopify showing that why aren't we seeing more growth with shopify there is an argument that maybe you know shopify is uh is is potentially not as much of a recovery trade as square is think about it square is a reopening trade it's a bitcoin trade it's a stimulus trade right now you've got all of those happening shopify is more of a little bit more of maybe that stay-at-home stock right let's go ahead and pull up the chart really quick on shopify here now i'm going to jump over to google really quick just to make a very simple observation here but uh shopify kind of been flat relatively flat since august we're about that 8.39 right square on the other hand you know may it's it could be argued that since august uh or the end of august here square's already been baking in some of these gains we might be expecting to see 36 percent increase so definitely a lot a stronger action here on square and then shopify which makes us wonder when is that next shopify breakout going to happen because 2020 look we had a really great movement between the crash in july but since july even what 13 it's been a little bit of an underperformer so is it possible that shopify is going to surprise us totally totally possible because just because uh you know subscriptions didn't go up to the moon uh or more people aren't using the website doesn't mean that revenue isn't up substantially uh so we'll have to see what the turnover ratios are at shopify uh we'll have to see the initial chart just looking at that little bit of data there the initial chart makes me scratch my head a little bit more on shopify uh it does kind of make me think of netflix and disney a little bit though folks look i mean netflix okay netflix did nothing since july either it was down 4 since july it's up 12 in after hours because they just blew expectations out of the water so it's entirely possible that that shopify could totally surprise us that little bit of data i see there doesn't make me excited i'm going to be i'm going to keep looking for data though before shopify earnings but it's definitely something to keep an eye on and just to make sure we're comparing as much as we can like for like here when i looked at netflix's data folks netflix's website analytics were up their time on website was up uh you know their uh their overall bounce rate was down that's good thing for netflix.com compared to what we're seeing at shopify so a little nervous on that one now people are wondering kevin should we dive into walt disney because netflix is up i think disney's already given its big jump over here it's 10 bump uh due to disney plus really killing it over here at the beginning of december we'll see how this translates when disney ends up reporting but folks disney and netflix honestly both of these and even shopify square these are companies you can own blindfolded forever disney is a company that i love so much because you've got you've got this built-in recovery play plus the netflix right by via disney plus you've got both of that kind of built in the hotels the theme top parks the um the high quality cruise lines very expensive cruise lines once those things get cruising again and you get the disney plus blowing up whoo i mean there's some real potential at disney uh in my opinion if if there's if disney's undervalued or if if the market's uh looking for an undervalued company let's put it this way disney might be one of those because it still trades with that old school valuation it still doesn't have that that netflix valuation uh but we'll go deeper onto disney in a different video these are just ideas here so uh let's move on now okay the last one united united airlines reports earnings tomorrow after the inauguration they are losing money like crazy they're pretty much expected to miss earnings and delta missed earnings this week although their stock did go up a tiny little bit after they missed earnings which that's the weirdness of the market uh but uh this might also potentially because b because airline executives are really talking down uh airline travel right now they're complaining over lockdowns they're complaining over covid they're complaining about a lack of travelers they're complaining about you know anti-masters or ask anti-masters and and what about uh you know what happens if uh biden comes out with these mask mandates that are potentially more stringent who knows a lot of potential issues at the airlines but what do we do with united this one's a little up in the air i don't have strong conviction on this one either way i personally first would recommend one of the things that you should totally do is track traffic do that by going to medkevin.com tsa you'll be able to see the tsa passenger data i would write that all into a spreadsheet download that table if you can put it all into a spreadsheet get that data analyzed i i i don't have as much high conviction on these uh these airline stocks they make me a little bit more nervous if i was going to get into these airline stocks i would probably recommend jumping into something like jets uh that way you could get the airline etf with jetsea at nine to ten percent exposure to southwest delta united an american each plus you get some exposure to spirit jetblue and others some people say hey kevin look you know maybe go all in on spirit i have to say website data between united delta and spirit shows delta and united actually doing better and one of the arguments or one of the issues we had originally when the pandemic started is we thought and i remember we were talking we talked about this in the course live streams one of the issues we thought was look spirit's great as a low-cost airline and people are going to want to save money but there's going to be so much competition from southwest delta and united an american that what's going to happen is those companies are going to lower their prices and when they lower their prices you really take away the whole aspect of oh come to spirit we're a discount carrier sure you might be a discount carrier but i can get a normal carrier at a discount now right once they start getting more of their planes flowing and then you got wider seats you get the the tray table that you can actually put your arms on without without falling off so some potential risks there this is why you know with the airlines ooh just uh such a such a tough tough sector right now probably be more interested in jets anyway those are my thoughts those are my trading thoughts the things that are on my mind if you liked this sort of meet kevin's thoughts on trades this is like totally the opposite of of what i ordinarily do because i usually talk fundamentals but here's the thing when i research my fundamentals i usually sit there i'm like oh that'd be a good trade if i if i were gonna trade i'd do that and then like usually two days later i'm like damn i should have done that trade but i've been i've had my head in in sort of the the sand of fundamental uh buying mostly and i don't think that's a bad thing i think based on my schedule and my workload i think that that's very common but uh hey when i come upon uh when i come upon these ideas upon with through my fundamental research like the gm cruise i think that's still i think honestly the size of crews is still a little bit uh you know under wraps but that's that's powerful but uh when i come upon these things i want to share these ideas with you and then of course you can make your own decisions i don't want to tell you to trade a certain way or another i'll give you my opinions where i can and give you some thoughts but folks these are all things to pay attention to thanks for being here 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