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I'm gonna punch you in your effing face. This week is arguably a much bigger week for bullish catalyst than last week was because last week we got some really bad data. Jobs data that was not up to snuff at EDP below expectations and a massive miss with basically one out of 74 economists actually seeing it.
73 missing it when jobs came in miserably low. Now, we expect QCEW revisions to be anywhere for basically the 6 months ending in March uh and to be anywhere between 550 to a million jobs to the downside. Scott Besson says 800 uh,000 jobs were going to evaporate. A lot of people are saying this is the worst data revision in 15 years since the Great Recession.
People counter this and say, "Oh, but it's because all the illegals are being caked down of the economy." At the same time, Scott Bessant threatens to punch Bill PE in the face, whose parents maybe allegedly did the same thing that Lisa Cook is being accused of. There's a lot to break down here along with Catalyst, and it's worth just getting right into it.
Look, first things first. Bessent had an interview this morning and his interview in my opinion, well, actually it was last night, but his interview in my opinion was a complete disaster because it shows you that Bessant doesn't really have our best interests at heart. But this shouldn't be a surprise.
Bessence's big main takeaway, and there's a lot to break down here, but a big main takeaway is that, hey, things are going to get better in the fourth quarter. We're just going through a noisy period of time right now in August, and the numbers are all going to be better in the fourth quarter, including GDP.
Everything's going to be fine, and we're going to boom again. This is great. Obviously, this week's data probably, in my opinion, mostly priced dead. This morning in the meet Kevin Alpha report, I actually argued before the market open that this week we're probably going to see the Q's rise, especially for start to trading, you know, your start to your trading day.
And I'd be looking at calls, shorterterm calls on the cues because I thought we were not only going to break out of 578, but I thought we were going to run to about 581 to 83. I wasn't expecting exactly that to happen within an hour and a half of the market opening. You know, we sent out the alpha report this morning and we talked about our bullishness.
Uh, and that's already happened. So, once again, people in the alpha report winning. Now, why did I say this? Well, I see my goal is always to help you learn why. Like, what's my reasoning for this? And my reasoning is the catalysts we have this week are well known already. We know we're going to get QCWs at 7:00 a.m.
California time tomorrow. Okay, we're going to get a big downward revision on jobs. We got it. Does that mean we're in a recession? Maybe, maybe not. The market's not going to price it in until it's real. Then we get PPI and then we get CPI, both of them month over month. and on core month over month expected to come in at.3 this week are those really a big catalyst no like even if they come in at 04 a little bit hot big deal we're still pricing in a guaranteed rate cut for September 17th which keep in mind the Fed's meeting is only 9 days away just 9 days away and we're going to get our 25 basis point cut so then you factor and you look at what markets are actually pricing in.
They're actually pricing in not only more calm, but they're pricing in the potential, at least right now, an 11 to 13% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Probably just sort of predicated on how bad the data actually ends up being. Well, one of the reasons we expected calm this morning as well, and this is something you should pay attention to as well, is the spread between the twos and the tens sitting at 57.
So we've relaxed from that 60 to 63 a little bit more shockprone figure that we had last week. And this is really to say that hey markets expect broad calm. Some of this is probably because Besson is trying to soothe markets. But is Bessant lying to us or does he just not know any better? Well, I I don't think he's lying, but I do think he just doesn't know that well.
I think he's probably going to end up in the long term proving not to be the greatest of Treasury secretaries. Of course, this is where people go, "What? Did you like Janet Yon better? What did you sh for the Democrats?" No. Remember, my goal is to piss everybody off, but it's to be real with you. Let me tell you and break down why I think Bessant doesn't know what he's talking about.
So, Bessant in his NBC interview, his MSNBC interview, argues that people freaked out in April over nothing. And this, in my opinion, couldn't be further from the truth. People freaked out over the worst and most unclear and insane implementation of tariff policy in 90 years since the Smoot Holly tariffs that were a contributor or at least part of the Great Depression.
That's gaslighting the reality of what happened in April. Now, Bessant then cherry picks Fed members he likes. He says, "August usually has noisy data and we should be listening to people like Fed Goulspeed who basically says, "Hey, you know, we don't really know if this data is because of immigration or because the labor market is actually weakening." But see, Goulsby is somebody that I had an opinion about last week.
I called him Mr. Noballs as opposed to Mr. Too late. I call him Mr. snowballs because Goulsby last year told us, "Oh, if the labor market starts trending down, we don't know if we could just magically stop it at a certain point and then prevent it from continuing to fall. It could end up in this sort of like self-fulfilling cycle." This year, he's like, "Oh, the labor market seems to be falling in a self-fulfilling cycle at probably just immigration.
That's probably just im immigration." You know, he's got the whole like scowl going on. It's probably just immigration. What? No, Mr. Goulby, you got no balls and you're changing your opinion with the wind. At least when me Kevin makes a prediction, we stick with it. And if we're right, great. If we're wrong, we tell you about it, too.
Big balls versus no balls. Anyway, Mr. Basset says and expects a bullish acceleration in the fourth quarter. Now, this is interesting. He thinks we're going to get a bullish acceleration in the fourth quarter because GDP is already doing really well, pumping up over 3%. And you've got a bunch of companies telling us that, hey, we're going to keep spending.
We're going to get give you so much capex spending, it doesn't matter. We've got all the capex. You want capex, we got it for you. But Mr. Besson seems to forget how GDP is calculated. He's bragging about 3.3% GDP, but he forgets something very important that when we calculate GDP, we subtract out imports.
In Q1, we had massive imports to try to get ahead of tariffs. So, we had negative GDP. We built up a lot of inventory. When you have built up inventory, you import less, which means you subtract less from GDP. So, let's say GDP is 10. you're taking less away from GDP because you're importing less. So you have less of a minus.
When you have less of a minus, what's left is seems bigger. And that's because we've built up so much inventory to get ahead and try to stay ahead of the tariffs for as long as possible with a lot of people knocking on wood, including restoration hardware stock that the Supreme Court is just going to declare these tariffs illegal leading to big obviously not only tariff rebates, but also the ability to buy inventory again at lower prices.
I think this is what a lot of companies are waiting for. But Besset doesn't realize that that dynamic is actually making GDP look artificially warmer than it actually probably is. In addition, GDP currently is we use real GDP which is inflation adjusted. So let's say inflation adjusted GDP is here. You know, again, I'm using round numbers, let's just call it 10%.
Inflation before tariffs is low or or has been low. And so the trend of inflation is that we're at a low level which means we subtract less from GDP making GDP look higher because real GDP is 10 minus say inflation call it two and you get eight. Okay I'm using round numbers just to make the this example simple.
Now if inflation goes up to 4% that GDP drops down to six because you're going 10 - 4 instead of 10 - 2. So the point of that is simply the lesson that as inflation trends up due to a transitory period of inflation as the Fed is calling it, we're actually going to get lower GDP. And as companies start resuming inventory buying because they burn through their inventories, you're going to get lower GDP.
So Besson is calling for a GDP boom because people are talking about capex spending. But formulaically GDP actually has two things really hurting it in the near term which is inflation which will hurt the appearance of GDP and inventory rebying once we go through inventory. Both of those things are going to hurt GDP.
That has nothing to do with the fact that the labor market is slowing down. That's just another contributor which obviously could lead earnings to go down at co companies and these promised capex expenditures never to actually happen. Now mind you all of what I'm saying here is bad. It's it's like recessionary, right?
But that doesn't mean the stock market has to price in a recession at all. In fact, this morning we pitched our stock buy number four in the meet Kevin Alth report. Uh we're we're basically doing 10 buys over the next 10 years. Uh and these are stocks that we think you're just going to hold for 10 years and and we think will perform very well.
Obviously can't guarantee you that they will, but uh so far our buys have been doing really well. And so if you want to be part of that, make sure you grab the Meet Kevin alpha access and the membership over at meet.com. You get lifetime access. Uh and and frankly because this week is going to be much more of a bullish catalyst than last week.
Uh we we did end up pushing out the bullish catalyst coupon. Uh so you've got a few more days to take advantage of that at meet.com just in fairness because we've got a lot more bullish catalyst this week. And if you join now, you'll get not only stock by 1 2 3 4 stock by number four is up like 32% today.
Uh but you'll also get um stock by 56 7 8 9 10 and everything else. So make sure you use coupon code bullish catalyst over at mekevin.com. Okay. So Bessant, he uses his justification for GDP booming in the fourth quarter. His justification is, oh well, executives are telling us they're going to spend more on capex.
But in order to recognize how stupid that is, you could either look at this clip from Mark Zuckerberg and or you could look at what happened in 2018. Remember in 2018, we ended up having companies tell Donald Trump, including Apple, that oh, we're going to we're going to help uh you know, we're going to invest so much money in the United States.
Apple's pitching investing in the United States. Fox Con says they're going to build a huge facility in the United States. And they're making these massive estimates for how much money they're going to spend in the United States. Four, five years later, we get a fraction of that investment. Why? Because these executives, they don't actually know how much they're going to spend.
They're going to they're going to base their spending on the economy and how much they can actually earn. But Donald Trump wants to hear a big number. So people are bending the knee to Donald Trump. They're giving Trump the big blowy he wants that that makes Trump feel good. And then he can lean over to Melania and see, "Oh, look how much money the numbers are so big.
They don't even know how much money." But then Mark Zuckerberg on a hot mic here doesn't even realize that he's saying, "Hey, hey, uh, sorry. You know, I I didn't I didn't know how big of a number you wanted me to pick. Even Zuck knows. It's all fugazi. All these people know it's fugazi. It's it's it's like a lie.
But anyway, let's listen to this clip. What do you see over the next few years? Oh gosh. Um, I mean, I think it's probably going to be something like, I don't know, at least $600 billion through 28 in the US. Yeah. Still a lot. No, it's significant. That's a lot. Thank you, Mark. Great to have you. I wasn't for announcing wasn't sure whatever.
I wasn't sure what number you wanted me to go with. That is an example of exactly what this economy is based on. This economy is based on people like Bessant telling you everything is fine and the economy is going to boom because companies are going to boom on capex spending. But it's a fraud. The insiders know it's a fraud.
It was a lie in 2018. It's a lie now. And it's misleading. And for the Treasury Secretary to say, "Oh, well, you know, ignore the data. The data doesn't matter. The data is promoted by the liberal mainstream media. Forget the data. Instead of the data, you should just listen to what companies are telling us.
And they're telling us they're going to spend big money." But but it's a lie. And we know it's a lie. Which basically means this is like the big fraud of the Trump administration is that we know the promises are a lie to get these companies special favors from the Trump administration, but then they're using that lie as a basis for why their tariffs are going to be great and everything's going to be fine.
Bessent literally tells us that Japanese automakers are absorbing the tariffs because they're so good at negotiating. No, Scott Besson. Tariffs are being absorbed by automakers because they have no pricing power. They have no damn money because the people are out of money. Poorer Americans and middle class Americans are getting raped, reamed, and robbed by the policies that as usual just make the rich richer, make it more expensive for people to get by.
And so Bessant saying and bragging about how the Japanese automakers are eating the tariffs is not a symptom of you guys being good at negotiating. It's a symptom of the economy suffering. And Bessant doesn't get it. He's the Treasury Secretary calling for a construction manufacturing boom and doesn't realize that manufacturing is literally in the opposite of a boom.
We're losing jobs in manufacturing at a scale we haven't seen since the Great Recession because of Trump's policies. The best thing that could happen is if we get the Supreme Court to rule that tariffs are illegal and we're not doing anymore. That would be the best thing that could happen for this economy because it's just a matter of time.
Now, that doesn't mean don't buy stocks. That doesn't mean go sell everything, right? Like I said, even in the alpha report, even though this is bearish longterm, even in the alpha report, we're bullish the cues. were bullish. Certain stocks were bullish. The four stocks. I think all four of those stocks are up today.
By the way, I I mean, we got uh the alpha report this morning. By the way, just so you know, I said this morning in the alpha report, I'm not bullish on Tesla today. Even though it's rallying in the pre-market, I'm not bullish on Tesla. There's nowhere for it to go other than 347, which is down. Here are the lines I literally drew on Tesla this morning.
the uh the great lines I added this morning which is a converging uptrend which is bearish for Tesla and sure enough look at this I send the alpha report this morning don't go bullish on Tesla look at that straight to 347 instead the stock buy number four we talked about is up massively and we were bullish on the cues which is way up from where we announced it in the alpha report yeah be part of that remember use coupon code bullish catalyst but anyway so Bess is basically a professional gaslighter when he's confronting with, "Hey, Goldman Sachs says 86% of tariffs are paid by US consumers." Besson says, "Oh, well, I made a lot of money trading against Goldman Sachs in my career." That literally has nothing to do.
It's misdirection. It's a red herring. It's like, "Hey, this data is bad." Oh, look at my coffee mug. That's what he does. It's a professional gaslighter, but it's like Donald Trump, too. Donald Trump does this as well. You know, the job numbers might be bad, but we're not going to get the real numbers for another year, so just wait and be patient.
Oh, come on, man. That's just gaslighting to get people not to freak out over the data, which eventually they will. Eventually, you're going to have recessionary pricing. We're not on a good trend. Hopefully, we can stuff land out of this. But Besson is the kind of guy, let's just make this up, Besson is the kind of guy who would write an op-ed in the world Wall Street Journal complaining about quantitive easing and how bad quantitive easing is for the economy.
Uh, and then he would also be the guy who would end up calling for quantitive easing in the event the market starts falling because of some kind of crisis. That's that's who I think of when I think of Basset. I don't know. I mean, that that's just a crazy example, right? Uh except that's actually exactly what he did this morning or actually on Friday rather.
He posted that unconventional policies such as quantitive easing should only be used in true emergencies. In other words, he's bagging on the Fed's use of supervision regulating the real estate and lending industry such as the DoddFrank Act. He's bagging on the Fed's money printing, but he's leaving the door open to using the very money printing that he's bagging on.
He's got a whole oped about how, oh, we shouldn't we shouldn't use money printing to help the economy, unless of course there's an emergency. because I think he realizes I think he's smart enough to realize that we're in a slowing economy and if we do end up in a recession, we're going to have to money print like crazy.
Now, Besson is also the kind of guy who is super quiet and smooth, but apparently is willing to punch you in your face. This is because I think of Besson as a schoolyard bully. I think of him as that gaslighting bully. And I made this analogy this morning and I think it's very appropriate. So here is an article where Besson apparently says, "I'm going to punch you in your effing face." Okay, I'm going to punch you in your effing face.
F you. That's Bessant for you, you know, apparently, uh, this Wednesday. I'll explain this in just a moment. But the reason they call him a schoolyard bully is he's the kind of guy, and this is the example we used this morning, where if everybody's playing kickball in the sand, you don't want to be left out.
So, you also go play kickball in the sand. But the problem with playing kickball in the sand is you kick sand into people's eyeballs. Okay? It's really dumb to play kickball in the sand. But Besset is the kind of guy where if you go, "Hey, you know, can we go play in the grass?" like people are getting sand in their eyes.
Bessence's the kind of schoolyard bully who's going to go, "Well, if you don't like it, why are you playing with us?" He's literally like a fourth grader. And this political article just confirms it. Wednesday evening after some inaugural bull crap dinner. Apparently, he's got some kind of lash out fight with Bill PTE over the FHFA and says, "Why the f are you talking to the president about me?
F you." Besson told Pol. I'm going to punch you in your effing face. The scene was described by uh one person who witnessed it and four others who heard about it. Uh it's either me or him. So they basically get like they try to get separated and one of them is asked to leave essentially. Basson's like let's step outside to do what?
Ask Pte to talk. No, I'm going to effing beat your ass. He's a school guard bully. Now I know a lot of people are going to go look and go, "Oh, this is great." You know, he's standing his ground or whatever. That's fine. But he's a professional gaslighter and that's what professional gaslighters do.
And and like I'm not here to like promote PTE, okay? PTE Nick T just tweeted that PTE's parents allegedly had owner occupied tax residency status in two different states, which is very similar to the same thing Bolt is complaining about Lisa Cook for. Now, Lisa Cook's fed governor. Bill Peele's parents are just, you know, really rich, wealthy capitalist land developers.
PE Holmes. Uh, you know, so some people are like, "Oh, it's different." It's not really that different, but whatever. Uh, I don't like Bill PE. I think he's just a shill for Trump. But, you know, this fight between Bess and PE to me just shows you that when you suck at actually using knowledge, you resort to violence.
That's very common. When you suck at analyzing data because you're a professional gaslighter, you resort to violence. And that's what Besson is. You know, Besson also apparently had a fight with Elon Musk. People think that Besson actually punched him in the face in April. He confronted Elon Musk just outside of the Oval Office.
That's when uh Elon Musk was seen with a black eye. Yeah. And you know Elon Musk, he's not invited to the AI dinners. He's not around the White House anymore. from Bessant. He's hanging out cuz he's a great shill for Trump and he's a good smootht talking shill, too. You know, it makes it seem like, you know, I don't know what, but he he comes across on TV as as like trustworthy, but he's a shield.
Uh so, you know, after I I talked about some of this this morning on a live stream, people are like, "Oh, Kevin, you ever tough bad about Biden?" Uh yeah, I did a lot because again, my goal is to piss off everyone. and I hate politicians and so I'm going to keep calling out politicians. And so when Biden's in office, people like, "Oh, you never talk bad about Republicans." Here I am talking bad about Republicans.
So keep this in mind when Democrats were in office again. Which if we go into a recession, they'll they'll be back in office in 2029. People are going to be like, "Oh, you never talk bad about Republicans again when I'm crapping on Democrats in 2029." It's just always how it's going to be. But anyway, Besson is basically helping promote the greatest failures of the Trump administration and it's going to age very very poorly.
But markets are going to be very happy because they're going to take best hope for uh like this renaissance in the fourth quarter and rate cuts from the Fed which are coming this month. It's only a matter of are we going to get one cut or two and then we can talk boom baby. Now remember, if you want stock buy number four, which is up over 30% today, make sure to join the Me Kevin Heaven Alpha Report.
You're going to be getting stock by 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 as well over the next few weeks. These are stocks that I think will do well uh whether there's a recession or not. Uh so we are considering that. Uh and uh and then also get the day trade, you know, insights. You know, the insights today that Tesla was going to go down and the cues were going to go up.
These are great. These are ways for you to make money and if you pay once, you get lifetime access to this stuff. So, check it out over me Kevin.com. You've got, you know, we didn't change the price yet. So, we've got a little bit more time to use coupon code bullish catalyst. Mostly because the catalysts we're getting this week are so priced in, they're going to be bullish.
We have more bullish catalyst this week than last week. So, we think it's appropriate. Uh anyway, this gives you a full breakdown of, you know, the the financial engineering and fraud that's basically going on, but hopefully gives you good insights into what's nex.
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