The Chamath Palihapitiya Crash Will Continue for Three More Years! 💥 All Time Cardano

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영상 결론: 시장 하락이 향후 약 3년간 이어질 수 있다는 주장이 중심이다. [제목·발언 배경] 영상은 S&P 500이 2022년 저점 수준까지 떨어지고 다우가 약세장 진입을 선언한 시점을 배경으로 한다. [시장 상황 진단] 연준의 강도 높은 긴축과 인플레이션 대응이 현 하락의 원인으로 지목된다. 미국 주요 뮤추얼펀드·ETF는 연초 이후 약 17.3% 하락한 상태다. [Chamath 주장] 하락장이 향후 3년간 지속될 것이라는 견해가 소개된다. 근거로 SPAC 관련 경험과 경제 내 불길한 힘(부정적 요인)이 언급된다. [과거 위기 비교] 2007~2008년 금융위기는 주택 거품, 저금리, 느슨한 대출 기준이 원인이었다. 당시 연준은 기준금리를 2000년 6.5%에서 2003년 1%로 낮췄다. 2008년 1월 연준은 0.75%p 인하를 단행했고 베어스턴스·리먼브라더스가 붕괴했다. [연준 전망 및 리스크] 연준은 물가 안정을 위해 고용 악화를 감수할 수 있다는 입장이다. 연준 추정치는 2023년까지 실업률이 현 3.5%에서 최소 4.4%로 오를 것으로 본다. 2023년 말 GDP 수준은 2021년 6월 전망 대비 5.5% 하향 조정됐다. 10년물 국채금리는 약 3%로 상승했다. [통화정책 분석] 프리드먼의 통화정책 시차 이론을 인용해 연준이 늦게 대응했다고 평가한다. [출연자 전망] Linda Garcia는 장기 투자 관점에서 시장은 결국 회복한다고 보며 기존 전략 유지를 권한다. Melissa Bo Chalan은 최악에 대비하되 투자를 유지하라고 조언한다. [지정학·공급 리스크] 우크라이나 전쟁에 따른 석유·가스·식량 공급 충격이 2023년까지 인플레이션 압력을 높일 수 있다. [암호화폐] 카르다노 등 암호화폐는 현 악재로 부정적 영향을 받았다. 장기적으로는 생태계 전체에 영향이 아직 충분히 반영되지 않았다는 견해가 있다.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. in the past there have been many Financial crises every time a market crashes it is a result of economic factors driving investors to act irrationally recently the SNP 500 fell to its lowest point since 2022 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declared a bare Market to have begun things are going to get worse if the most recent fed pronouncement which sparked the present Market turmoil is any indicator how soon will the Collision and how long till we reach the clearing jamut claims that it won't occur in montellier anytime soon one of the well-known investors who carved out a niche for himself is Padia he made the claim that the crash would last for three more years as a result of his special purpose acquisition companies and a YouTube video and he supported it with the appearance of ominous forces in the economy he overstayed their welcome by referring to other Financial crises and how poorly they were handled the trajectory of the current crash is about to match many regular individuals lost their jobs their life savings and their houses as a result of the financial crisis that swept the nation from 2007 to 2008 cheap credit and loose lending guidelines that were fostered by a housing bubble contributed to the financial crisis of 2008 which was brought on by both the banks were left with trillions of dollars worth of subprime mortgages and worthless assets after the bubble burst similar to how the FED is currently fighting inflation with severe measures it began with good intentions the Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate from 6.5% in May 2000 to 1% in June 2003 in response to the Doom bubble crash a string of corporate accounting scandals and terrorist acts the intention was to stimulate the economy by lowering the cost of borrowing for households and Enterprises however when borrowers benefited from the reduced mortgage rates the outcome was an increase in property values by the winter of 2008 the US economy had entered a full-fledged recession and as financial institutions struggled to maintain liquidity stock markets worldwide experienced the greatest declines the Federal Reserve attempted to stop the economic decline by reducing its Benchmark rate by 3/4 of a percentage point in January 2008 which turned out to be the largest reduction in 25 years Northern Rock was forced to be nationalized by the British government be Sterns a Mainstay of Wall Street and the global Investment Bank failed and was bought for pennies on the dollar Leman Brothers bankruptcy was the biggest in US history and its fall served as a symbol of the devastation brought on by the global financial crisis for many the new crash appears unusual since almost all attempts to predict it have failed the fifth rate increase of the year would be a 75% increase the FED had just said the Consumer Price Index data for August showed that inflation is still persistently High and the FED made it clear that it will prioritize bringing down inflation even if doing so threatens employment Brian McMillan the CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network offered his thoughts on the fed's choice I believe a recession is likely on the horizon because the FED has stated clearly that it requires one he spoke but given that the stock market has already had a difficult year it's a hazy forecast the typical us mutual fund or ETF has lost 17.3% since the year began and the market saw a number of instances of daily and weekly losses that were extremely large since the pandemic things have gotten more difficult for both businesses and individuals the potential severity of the situation in the upcoming months is a big source of concern for investors however there will be a mix of good and terrible news and the year will probably conclude on a depressing note Tomas thought that it might be around for a couple more years it is challenging for investors to understand what is going day by day with so much in the air given that there are still more fed meetings planned for this year this translates to a market environment that will be turbulent for some time additionally fed officials may have overcorrected from being very enthusiastic about the prospects for the economy after the epidemic to being overly gloomy about the inflation tradeoff in September 2020 the Federal Reserve policy makers anticipated that the pandemic related slump would be particularly severe and that the recovery that followed would be rather limited furthermore even with the right monetary policy at the end of 2022 Americans would produce 2.5% fewer products and services according to the official's testimony the the rate of unemployment was intended to stay above the pre-epidemic level until at least 2024 contrary to what had been anticipated before to the pandemic the startling reality is that everything has changed under sound monetary policy the fed's most recent estimates are less optimistic than those issued before to the announcement of the MRNA vaccinations Americans should plan on having 3% more poverty by the end of 2023 than was anticipated before the pandemic and that situation will only become worse over time the level of the gross domestic product by the end of 2023 has been marked down by 5.5% in comparison to the June 2021 predictions which is worse than the damage in the past it is not unexpected that policy makers currently anticipate a considerable increase in the unemployment rate from the current 3.5% in July 20122 to at least 4.4% before the end of 2023 at the news Conference held following the meeting fed chairman Jerome Powell warned that the intended growth path might result in higher unemployment Powell would contest the idea that anyone at the FED would enjoy seeing employees lose their jobs he emphasized however that there must be a significant slowdown in growth and that fed officials will put up with considerable economic hardship in exchange for getting inflation back into target range despite having the best of intentions it is tragic in addition it is important to consider the comments of Economist Milton fredman who was famous for discussing how monetary policy functions and circumstances like this he described how the scheme operates with lengthy and unpredictable lags he meant by saying that the effects of the federal reserve's operations on the economy take time to manifest and that is the result the FED would have had to wait too long to stop inflation from becoming a serious threat if it had waited for inflation to become apparent before raising interest rates the FED however decided to disregard Freeman's core ideas and prolonged an excessively loose monetary policy a sizable portion of investors believe that the FED officials should be ashamed of themselves for missing the inflation and preventing it from reaching such high levels in order to cause a recession they are willing to overcorrect we should prepare for a difficult economic Landing since the beginning of the year there has been a quick increase in government bond yields and a significant decline in equity's prices in reaction to expectations of a more hawkish Federal mortgage rates have been significantly impacted by the 10-year government bond yield which jumped to roughly 3% the FED seems to be transitioning too quickly from an overly accommodative monetary policy to an overly restrictive policy now we can ask how will financial markets respond to a mix of Swift interest rate increases and the FEDS resolve to reduce its balance sheet given that they have become accustomed to ultra easy monetary policy for investors in the economy Jim's assertion that the scenario will persist for three more years is a bitter pill to chew Linda Garcia the company's founder claims that the market detests uncertainty we are unable to relate the current economic position to anything that has previously occurred certainly not within our lifetimes she claimed that Garcia's recommendation was grounded in the idea that investing is a long-term endeavor and that investors should stick to their original investment strategies history has repeatedly demonstrated that the market always recovers each exhilarating ride although it may become worse this is just a stop along the way the year has been unpredictable thus far however we still need to be ready for the possibility of additional fed shuffles finally rate increases and subsequent geopolitical concerns related to the conflict in Ukraine do little to ease inflationary pressure as it relates to the supply of oil gas and food that is all we haven't yet fully experienced some of that will be felt until 2023 investors should prepare for the worst but not lose their heads said another expert Melissa Bo Chalan what will happen in the upcoming months or years is difficult to foresee the best course of action is to hang on to your Investments and ride the wave many cryptocurrencies including cardano have been negatively impacted by the impending issues even the vessel hard Forks impact has not been felt throughout the ecosystem the long-term game though is what counts of course what do you think about this comment below with your thoughts and let us know in the following video we'll see