저자: SamuelSmith · 외국인
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JP모건 CEO 다이먼의 관세 경고를 인용하며, 시장이 트럼프의 관세 후퇴(TACO)를 과신하고 있다고 주장. S&P500·나스닥은 과열(버핏지표 등) 상태이며, 대만해협 전쟁 리스크가 시장에 반영되지 않았다고 봄. 이에 따라 S&P500·나스닥 ETF를 피하고 금·은 및 배당형 인프라·리츠(EPD, NI, TRP, WPC, O, MAA, BIP, BEP 등)에 투자 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
recently billionaire investor and CEO of JP Morgan which is one of the world's leading banks and investing companies out there. He recently signaled an important warning to the market namely that the market is being way too complacent about the threat of tariffs being raised significantly on US trade partners here in about a few weeks.
In this video, I'm going to discuss more about what this warning is, why the market is being too complacent, why I agree with Jamie Diamond on that, and also how I'm investing my capital accordingly to position myself for optimal riskadjusted return potential. Before I get into the video though, if you like receiving dividend content, both more broader market commentary and macro commentary like this video or individual stock picks and ETF picks and CF picks, my my favorite ones of the moment that I share regularly, several times each week, please subscribe to this channel.
It' mean a lot to me. Thank you very much. Okay. So, what is JPA Morgan CEO Jaime Diamond thinking here? Well, he explained recently to the media that his view is that right now the market seems to have priced in the fact that Trump is going to, as he put it, taco or the media puts it taco. In other words, Trump always chickens out.
They're they have this view that Trump talks a big game, especially on tariffs. He threatens these huge tariffs just as he did with Liberation Day, just as he did with the Chinese, just as he's done with Europe, just as he seems to be doing over and over again. and now he's done with these letters he's sending out to different countries, but that ultimately in the end he's not going to follow through with such huge tariffs.
He's going to find a way to bow out and not put so much pressure because he knows that such high tariffs are going to likely cause a meaningful disruption to the economy. And so the market is calling his bluff and so far it appears that many of the leading US trade partners are as well. Hence why no deals have been struck.
But Jaimeie Diamond is concerned that this time might actually be different and that Trump may truly follow through with his tears at the very least that the market is not pricing in the probability that that happens to the degree that they should. And he gave some very good reasons that I think make sense.
First of all, the market is almost making it more likely that he's not going to back off these tariffs because they have rewarded Trump's economic policies so far with surging stock prices. Sure, the stock market crashed initially after the early April Liberation Day tariffs are announced. But in the weeks and months since then, it has been a very sharp recovery and now both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are sitting near at all-time highs.
And so if you look at that and you say, well, they have enacted some tariffs since then. Pretty substantial ones on China, a 10% pretty much blanket tariff on everyone else. Couple other uh strategic tariffs being established here. Inflation has been low. The economy seems to be doing okay. Why not push the envelope a bit further?
after all all this additional revenue is pouring in and tariffs and in fact in June there was actually a surprise surplus for the US uh budget. Now of course that's a timing issue. I'm not saying that now the US is suddenly has a budget surplus. They don't. But regardless there is a lot of tariff revenue pouring in.
So why not push the envelope further? So that's one big reason that he he puts out there for that. Additionally, when you look at the fact that Jerome Powell seems to have his heels dug in, he's not going to cut interest rates meaningfully anytime soon. Trump may be like, "Well, what's the point? why not just go for broke if he's not gonna give me any credit for low inflation despite the tariffs and because he doesn't like the tariffs I might as well just push the tariffs up higher.
So there are reasons to be concerned that he may truly raise tariffs. Additionally Trump really does seem to be a true believer that tariffs are good for the economy and particularly for the United States because he's been preaching this message for a long time for many many years even decades even and again his adviserss seem to be true believers in in tariffs and again the results so far have been promising.
So why wouldn't he follow through with these tariffs, at least in some cases? Now, my personal view on tariffs are that I think in a in an in a vacuum, they're not a good thing because anytime you increase taxes, it's not good for the economy. But, for example, there have been reports already from from Japan and other countries of companies slashing their prices significantly to offset the effect of tariffs or even governments stepping in with forms of subsidies to help offset the tariffs.
And so that explains why there's not been much inflation in the United States despite these tariffs being in place. And what that ends up being is that foreign countries, governments, as well as companies end up paying a large portion of that tariff revenue to the United States Treasury instead of all of it.
Although some of it still does, but not all of it falls on the US consumer. And therefore, it becomes a very efficient way for the US government to raise revenue. Instead of raising t corporate taxes on companies operating in the United States or raising income taxes or raising the inflation tax by printing more money to make up for the deficit, they're instead generating it from truly external sources.
And so, I do think there's something to be said for tariffs. As long as they are strategically done and targeted effectively, if there's these massive blanket tariffs, that may cause some problems. Uh, and I think undoubtedly you'd see a lot of price increases in the US. So, it's it's a fine line. And so, I I think I understand what's going on here, but there is a lot of uncertainty ahead because if these countries all call Trump's bluff, what's he going to do?
He's either going to fold, which case he completely undermines the US's economic position, his economic policies. He's going to look like a fool, or he's going to have to fall through on at least some of them, and he may be able to wiggle out of some claiming some deal was struck and be able to save face to some degree, but he's going to have to follow through with at least some of them.
And I think that risk is not being sufficiently priced in by Mr. market because if he follows through with at least a decent bit of these tariffs if the bluff is called, then it's going to cause prices to rise for American consumers, it's going to cause some economic disruption, etc. And so, I do agree with Jamie Diamond that there is a risk that's not being priced in.
And here's why. Because if you look, again, like I said, the markets are trading near all-time highs. If you look at any leading valuation metric, whether it be the Buffett indicator, the price to earnings multiple on the S&P 500, the interest rate model, the the mean reversion S&P 500 model, they all indicate that the market is somewhere between overvalued and strongly overvalued.
And so, it's not like the market is pricing at risk. On top of that, there are a bunch of other risks at play here. The biggest one being the growing risk of war in the Far East. China's military buildup continues. Just this past week, the People's Liberation Army in China was doing the largest amphibious landing drills in their history.
Even as Taiwan was doing its largest counter invasion war game, including civilian aspects of civilian training and and urban warfare in its history to prepare for a potential Chinese invasion. At the same time, the US Air Force was doing its largest drill across the Pacific region, but any drill of any kind that it's done in a generation since many years ago in the Cold War.
And so clearly, these sides are all taking it seriously. War games have been taking place in Australia involving Japanese and US and Australian troops. The US and the Philippines have been doing a lot of drills. The list goes on and on. Head of Indopaccom Samuel Paparro has been saying recently increasing urgency that this could happen on his watch that the odds are are increasingly daunting that the the trend is very negative.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegath said something very similar at the at a recent event in Asia with other countries present just about how the threat could be imminent of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. So this is a huge risk and many different think tanks like Rancor Corp and other researchers have all come to the conclusion that such a war would be not only devastating in terms of live lost and military uh combat but also make a devastating devastating devastating title wave of impact across the global economy likely plunging the world into a depression.
We're talking probably 10% declines in GDP in the United States, more than that in China, major hit to Europe. And the reason for that is one is China is such a huge trading partner for so many countries in the world, especially as a part of the supply chain due to its manufacturing power, but also Taiwan is the center of semiconductor manufacturing in the world for the most advanced chips.
So that whole entire AI boom comes to a screeching halt. $4 trillion Nvidia market price will likely at least have if not more. Other major leading mega cap stocks that are major players in the AI race will also take a hit and many other companies that simply rely on advanced semiconductors to produce their products ranging from refrigerators, microwaves, certainly airplanes and automobiles, construction equipment, computers, phones, on and on.
Those are all going to be majorly disrupted if Taiwan gets blockaded or invaded by China. So this is huge economic risk, not just military risk we're talking about here, that the market is completely ignoring with its valuations currently. And so I think that's a risk that is not being properly priced in at all.
And in fact, I think these tariffs and the potential for trade war actually increases the chances that something like that would happen because the US and China already had a bit of a trade war earlier this year. There still are in a way having a trade war because of the tariffs in place by the United States are pretty high.
And China continues to do their manipulative and restrictive practices as well as they continue to hold the rare earth minerals trump card that they're playing with increasing confidence and aggression. And so if things spiral out of control there again, both sides are going to be at a point where it's like the cost of going to war with each other is not as great as it once was because the economic benefit of this peace between them is increasingly not there.
And so they would be more likely to try to resolve their differences via armed conflict. So, how am I investing accordingly? Well, first of all, I'm steering clear of the major indexes. I don't hold any S&P 500. I don't hold any NASDAQ in terms of their ETFs because again, I think that they are significantly overvalued and they're not pricing in these major risks, whether it be on the trade and tariff front or be on a geopolitical front.
So, what am I buying instead? Well, one is I am very overweight precious metals right now, both gold and silver, and related investments like miners, etc., because I think that's a valuable hedge against geopolitical risk which would undoubtedly cause price of especially gold to rise in such a scenario.
Silver is playing catch-up as an undervalued alternative and that's why I've been leaning into them recently. Although that's starting to play out pretty pretty nicely. So I don't think silver is quite as attractive as it once was. But one way I do that too is with precious metals leases. I invest through monetary metals and what I do is I just buy bullion, store it there for free, then they lease it out to various jewelers and others who benefit from that and they pay me a 4% yield currently on gold to be able to do that.
And so there's a link in the video description. You can check that out. If you sign up through that link, you only have to do an initial investment of $5,000 to open an account with them. If you don't use that link, I believe it's like$25 or $30,000 required initial investment or something similar to that.
So definitely advantageous to sign up through the link. I would be greatly appreciative if you did. Okay, how else am I investing though? Well, I'm also investing in defensive infrastructure and real estate investments that pay a nice conservative dividend yield. That includes very defensive mid-stream infrastructure, whether it be Enterprise Products Partners with its A minus credit rating, although it does have some China exposure through its ethane exports.
So, if you want to diversify that further, you can invest in stocks like Nbridge, which I spoke about in a recent video because it's almost all of its revenue is actually regulated, which makes it a very utility-like safe investment. TC Energy is another one like that. Uh then you have uh the triple net lease real estate.
I like WP carry right now. Realy income's another solid option. Uh they both have all their exposure to either US mostly or some Europe. They have very strong investment grade credit ratings, very defensive business models. Uh minimal impacts from trade wars. So those are good options. I also like multif family real estate and growth markets.
So I think Minimar America apartment communities is a good proxy for that. There's some small caps I like even more, but MAA is a good option for someone who just wants a nice simple lower risk opportunity along those lines. And then of course there's other aspects of infrastructure like Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, Brookfield Renewable Partners.
I do have more international risk. So there's a little bit more geopolitical risk there, but they are very defensive and very inflation resistant with inflation indexing on the vast majority of their revenues, long duration contacts, contracts, BBB plus credit ratings. So a lot to like there about them.
And these stocks all have very attractive dividend yields, strong dividend growth, and underlying cash flow growth profiles. So, I think they're going to do just fine over the long term in terms of total returns. And they should weather an economic downturn much better than most. Best of all, they're trading at attractive valuations unlike the broader markets.
And so, I think you overall have a much more attractive riskreward profile. I hope you like this content. I hope you like these recommendations. If you do, give the video a like. It really helps me to get better distribution on it. Let me know in the comments below what you think about the risk from tariffs as well as geopolitical risk and how you're investing your money right now.
Again, if you like this content and want to get more like it, please subscribe to the channel. Thank you so much. See you next time.
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