저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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미국 경제는 현재 아직 견조하나 인플레이션, 빠른 금리 인상, QT, 전쟁 등으로 6~9개월 내 경기침체 가능성이 크다는 판단이다. 경제 상황: 소비자 잔고와 기업 재무는 양호하고 신용시장도 열려 있다. 다만 금리는 예상보다 빠르게 올랐고 QT 효과는 미지수다. 유럽은 이미 침체 상태로 본다. 연준 평가: 인플레이션 대응이 늦었고 긴축 속도도 부족했으나 현재는 따라잡는 중이다. 경기 둔화가 경미하게 그치길 바란다고 언급했다. 전쟁 리스크: 금융 긴축보다 우크라이나 전쟁이 더 심각한 장기 위험이라고 강조했다. 비트코인/암호화폐: 팬데믹 때 인플레 헤지 수단으로 소량 보유했다고 언급했다. 스탠 드러켄밀러 등도 언급되었으나 본인은 소액 보유를 유지한다고 했다. 경기침체 플레이북: 침체는 보통 약 300일 지속되며, 연준이 금리 인상을 멈추고 인하로 전환한 뒤 주식시장이 바닥을 찍는다. 이후 하락 폭이 컸던 인플레 관련 자산이 크게 반등할 수 있다고 봤다. 장기 전망: 1970년대식 부채 역학이 문제될 것이며, 2020년대는 재정 긴축과 높은 기간 프리미엄의 시기가 될 수 있다는 견해다. 이는 지난 10년의 저금리 흐름과 반대라고 봤다. 주식·채권: 주식 밸류에이션 압축과 채권 매도가 나타나고 있으며, 이는 기간 프리미엄 재반영 과정이다. 리스크: 시장 변동성은 커질 것이며 일부 신용 시장의 긴장이 나타나고 있다. 다만 아직 질서 있는 조정 단계로 본다.
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so I think you got to put two things in mind here currently right now the U.S economy is actually still doing well consumers have money you know fiscal stimulus they still have more than they have before they're spending 10 percent more than last year or 35 percent more than pre-covered their balance sheets are in great shape yes that's gone up a little bit but not nearly to pre-cover levels and therefore even go into recession they're going to be in much better shape than 0809 companies are in good shape credit's very good markets are still open though Rocky and stuff like that but you gotta you can't talk about the economy I'll talk about the stuff in the future and this is serious stuff okay this is inflation which obviously is you know changing the effect those numbers I just told you about it's rates going up more than people expected already and probably a little bit more from here it's QT which we've never had before so therefore the unknown effects and you see it today and bond markets around the world and Sovereign markets and people selling U.S treasury debt and it's the war and these are very very serious things which I think are likely to push the US and the world I mean Europe is already in recession and then they're likely to put U.S in some kind of recession six nine months from now if we do we do us go into recession how severe do you expect it to be and how long do you expect it could last yeah well this is the thing no one ever really knows right you do have a strong consumer going into it businesses are in pretty good shape but they were amazingly resilient during covert you know even the ones that had no government support and stuff stuff like that and I think governments did do a hell of a job can they recover so we don't know I mean you now you have to look at a range of outcomes it can go from you know very mild to quite hard and and a lot will you know rely on what happens to this war so I think you know to guess is hard be prepared and and but the one guarantee which we've been consistent as volatile markets you're going to have volatile markers you've already seen markets down quite a bit no IPOs or a little high yield Bridge loans being hung and stuff like that which is pretty typical but it's still been orderly I think it's possible you can see it be disorderly sometime and not not do near future how do you think the FED is doing in managing this whole situation well let me give them credit for what they didn't covered and I hate to second-guess people because I think it's easy for everyone to do in hindsight you know they waited too long and did too little and qts should have started soon and all that but they're clearly catching up they're clearly motivated to catch up and you know from here we let's all wish some success to keep our fingers across that they that they managed to slow down the economy enough that it doesn't cause whatever it is is mild and it's possible I wouldn't take that off I think like I said the far more serious thing is this war far more serious than the short-term effect of the economy and things like that you know in the middle of the pandemic I remember you joining us um and talking about the possibility of runaway inflation and one of the things you talked about then was a hedge around using crypto and Bitcoin and your friend your friend Stan druckenmiller had bought some Bitcoin at the time too uh Stan druckenville recently had an interview with Joe Kernan at delivering Alpha said he's out of Bitcoin where are you I've still got a very minor allocation I've always had a small allocation to it I think welcome to the crypto teacher and you know I come back with that video just to make you think and we have Jamie Diamond on the economy and we know he's only going to give us some of the truth America is going into a recession about six to nine months we know we already in a recession right along with Europe and the rest of the global economy yes the dollar is strong so it's setting up an illusion but we have the FED is going to allow these rates to stay up and next year they're going to start shrinking this balance sheet remember guys they're going to destroy this Legacy Market in order to give the fourth Industrial Revolution rise remember the NWO caused a problem wait for the reaction and run in with the solution and what is the solution of fourth Industrial Revolution where the robots algorithms and drones take over the economy pay each other with crypto and the Sheep go inside the metaverse and get that free money airdrop and we apologize to the Jones saying the same thing as Jamie Diamond there's going to be rough times ahead and we know in 2023 and 24 we're going to have mass layoffs due to Automation and Jamie Diamond and Paul Tudor are not going to talk about the fourth Industrial Revolution they're not going to tell you that the machines are coming to get your jobs they're not telling you that the Sheep are going to go inside the metaverse the virtual world God's when it comes to these billionaires we don't listen to everything they say what do I teach you we follow the money arkets of this economy we see these hot employment numbers coming in trying to understand what the Federal Reserve is going to do we're seeing what's happening in Europe we have the issues in Ukraine and Russia and some of the comments by President Putin I want to put it all into the mix as as um as a macro Trader you're going to be doing a master class we should say about ma about macro trading coming up on Wednesday what is your take on what's happening in this economy in this market right now well these are Spectacular times for macro and great times for macro are typically not good times for the for General investment owning stocks owning bonds macro works when everything is broken a bit that's when you have the most volatility when it's really best for the type of trading that I do so for me it's bad Times Are Good Times bad times good times for me or bad times for General investors and if you think about where we are right now the Federal Reserve board is fighting something and hasn't seen really in almost four decades which is inflation and inflation's it's a bit like toothpaste once you get it out of the tube it's it's hard to get it back in right and so the FED is it's fed is furiously right now trying to wash that taste out of their mouth and they're doing it by raising interest rates and of course there's a big calibration question here just how much are they going to raise them how much do they have to raise them and what's the consequence of that and typically for when you have an extreme event like inflation we have right now the only way to uh to get it back in the tube is to raise interest rates to a level Pal's already talked about pain I take that as a metaphor for a recession and if we go into recession that has really negative consequences for a variety about so which you know if you think about every decade the 70s were the decade of inflation the 80s was a decade of kind of Boom bust huge swings in dollar volatility the 90s was equitization the.com bubble the odds was the mortgage bubble and the great financial crisis the teens or the peak of globalization and probably the peak of Central Bank experimentation with monetary policy right uh the 20s I'm afraid are going to be that period where we really focus on debt Dynamics country by country fiscal deficits and the need to run certainly fiscal policy in a way that gives people confidence in the long run value of the currency and the problem that we've had really for the last 12 years is that we we've done this massive experimentation with monetary policy where we suppressed yields and we did this massive experimentation the fiscal side during the pandemic and so my guess is the 20s are going to be just the opposite of both we're already seeing that right now from the central bank we're gonna the whoever is the president in 24 is going to be dealing with debt dynamics that are so dire and so every so dire that what this is the 1970s no so dire that that we're going to have to have fiscal retrenchment and that fiscal retrenchment means that if we don't have fiscal entrenchment then everything that we spent if you think about the teens which was all about suppressing yields right and I think the 20s will be just the opposite I mean higher term premiums and bond markets higher term premiums and stock markets it'll be just the opposite of what we experienced the last decade so in a time when there's too much money which is why we have inflation and too much fiscal Spirit spending something like crypto specifically Bitcoin and ethereum where there's a finite amount of that that will have value at some point someday I don't know when that will be but it will have value that scarce and the value at a much higher number than where we are today oh I think so yeah like I I would think there so we're probably getting ready to go through the rep the recession Playbook more likely than not sometime I don't know whether it started now or whether it started two months ago you always find out and you're always surprised about when recession officially starts but I'm assuming we're going to go into one there's a specific Playbook around that uh and what what is that Playbook well so that Playbook is most recessions last about 300 days from the commencement of it the stock market's down say 10 percent um the first thing that will happen will be short rates will stop going up and we'll start going down before the stock market actually bottoms so that's why you could argue that two-year rates here may have some value or somewhere through here and term premium gets put back into a variety of assets into Bond markets into stock markets and that's obviously what's happening so you're seeing multiples compressed in the stock market as they should and you're starting to see bond market sell off because again term premiums being put back into them so I would say when we get into that recession there will be a point when the FED stops hiking there will be a point when it starts to either slow down or even at some point it'll reverse those cuts and when that happens you'll have it just to you'll probably have a massive rally in a variety of beaten down inflation trades I want to including I want to bring Becky into the conversation because she's got a question but when when do you expect that to happen well we have I mean look we've got rates at three point unemployment rates at 3.6 percent I believe we have it's very possible we haven't even started yet it's very possible that when the NBR goes back and says here's when the the recession officially started that it'll be somewhere within a month or two of now maybe I I doubt again with the unemployment rate so low that they would they would date it earlier than this it's it's they look at six or seven different measures and you're always surprised ex-posts when they do that technology do 8
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