저자: MichaelTanner · 외국인
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파월 잭슨홀 연설 이후 금리인하 기대가 커졌고, 이는 석유·가스 자본조달에 우호적이라고 주장. 미국 LNG 수출과 셰일가스 생산 확대로 가스 산업 가치는 수출설비로 쏠릴 것이라 봄. 인도의 러시아산 원유 의존과 루블·루피 결제 확산으로 달러 패권 약화 우려 언급. 텍사스 풍력 프로젝트 취소 급증, 오스테드 로드아일랜드 해상풍력 중단명령을 에너지 비효율의 사례로 제시. 크레센트 에너지의 바이탈 에너지 인수설을 소개하며 바이탈의 자산 질을 낮게 평가. 유가는 약 60달러대 중반에서 소폭 반등, 석유 리그 수는 소폭 감소.
다듬은 글
Did Fed Chair Jerome Pal buy oil stocks? Next on the Energy Newsbe Standup. What does Pal's comments in Jackson Hole mean to the oil and gas markets? But more importantly, what does it mean to investors? Federal Reserve Chair Pal's annual address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is always a pivotal moment for the markets, and Friday was no different.
His 2025 speech delivered on August 22nd was no exception titled Michael Monetary Policy and the Fed's framework for review. You can't buy this kind of entertainment. It did shake the market up probably even more than Cracker Barrel. But let's keep going. Economic growth was decelerated around 1.2 in 2025, down from the previous year's pace.
A notable update was revisions to the Fred longerrun goals moving away from the 2020 average inflation targeting. Michael, this is important. And why is it important for the oil and gas? Because it also means if he does go down 25 points in their next meeting, it means cheaper money for bigger oil companies when they go to try to do more drilling because we need trillions of dollars just to meet normal decline curves.
But what this also means is that for private investors, there will be everyone looking for where am I going to get returns? This is critical. Absolutely. I mean, I think this decision to move away from the that 2020 guidance of, you know, kind of what's been called average inflation targeting now moving towards what they're kind of talking about like a moving target or more flexible approach.
The markets, as you said, interpreted this. You know, Dow Jones was up one and a half percentage points. S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were also up. I think you hit the nail on the head. I mean, from an oil and gas investing standpoint, the capital markets obviously are going to enjoy the fact that money is going to become cheaper.
I mean, we're about to talk in our, you know, at the end of this show about the potential Crescent Energy Vital merger. I mean, you're talking a $600 million market cap company with 2.8 billion of debt. I mean, that kind of gives you an idea of how much debt a lot of these large public companies who may not have exact core acreage need to continue to drill.
And if you know if President Trump and Secretary of Energy Chris Wright want to keep following through on this drill baby drill promise with they had they're actually need easier they need looser capital markets. They need money to more easily flow into this. They need to ease the restrictions if they really want to drill baby drill and keep prices low.
Do I think that's actually going to to happen? Yeah. I mean I I think what you're going to probably see is a 25 basis points cut in December. I'm not going out on a limb saying that. Everyone is sort of saying that. host Jerome Pal's speech, but but I do think it's important to kind of buoy the oil and gas business from a capital market standpoint.
Now, in a pricing structure, who knows what that does. I mean, we we've sort of been testing that $60, you know, lower bound. We hit it earlier in the week. We actually saw gains this week as we'll talk a little bit about what that means for the markets later on in the finance segment. But, you know, it's it's it's going to be very interesting.
And I think the the scarier notion is if they decide to delay cuts. I mean, now that we have this moving target, it really allows the Fed to do what they want. And, you know, we could get in we could get in a big discussion about this idea of 2% inflation trying to manage that as their, you know, as their goal all around.
I mean, there's a lot that's wrong with that. Again, I do think for, you know, investors in the oil and gas space, it's going to lead to to pro possibly more drilling, but what that means relative, the best thing they can do to manage inflation is stop printing money. Let's go to the next story here, Michael.
Surging US LNG export fuel growth in US shale, but how does this impact investors and businesses? I had fun writing this one on our Substack. Michael, the United States has solidified itself, and I use that word solidified as the world's leading exporter of liqufied natural gas. Michael, for the uneducated from Oklahoma State University, that is LNG.
surging exports driving unprecedented growth in shale gas production. As we keep going through 2025, this re is reshaping the energy landscape. And I point to a couple key things in this article. Natural gas production has been more robust. Dry natural gas output reached a preliminary 3,327 billion cubic feet in May alone, equating to a 107 BCF per day in a new high that underscores the strength sector.
That's a big number. That's a lot of gas. That's more than Jerry Nadler combined. Let's go to the next one here. You take a look at EIA projects overall US gas output to rise from 103 BCF in 2023 to around 113 BCF by 2030. We're going to need more than that in order to fuel the data centers and everything else that's coming around.
In fact, the death of the Perian is overrated. And I have scheduled a meeting with Trisha Curtis, the CEO of Pro Nerds to talk about the death of the Perian is Peak Oil here and a couple other key issues. And she is a top-notch person. She's one of my go-to people when I want to talk about oil and gas stuff.
But here's where it gets really important, Michael, and that is the trade for molecules. The trade for molecules now means that people are starting to look at natural gas drilling separately than they used to be. And when you talk about drilling for oil and oh by the way, gas is a byproduct. We're also tracking the natural gas rigs sta remaining more stable in the rig counts.
And when we start watching this trend, I look for trends and we take a look at what's going on in the future, businesses are going to start taking a look at where do I put my business? I'm going to put my business where I can get natural gas. Where can I get business? And it's also going to be bringing up another one.
I just interviewed Bill Mazetti and he is a cool cat from Rosden Data Center. just turned that into the production team. He is working on the Stargate data center. This is a huge opportunity for businesses to take charge of their business upfront. Michael, no, absolutely. I mean, I think the other thing that's really interesting when it comes to the growth of LG is the fact that, you know, as we sit here, Stu, we're analyzing, you know, 10 deals a month, 15 deals a month, and talk about trends.
The perian is getting gassier over time. The gas oil ratio is becoming way higher than it was 10 years ago. I mean, you used to you used to think about goss in in in the low 600s. You're now seeing them over a thousand when it comes to the amount of gas. And and so what does that mean? It means that you know we're we're not depleting the not you know not depleting the perine but you know not to get all reservoir engineering on us but you know we're you know we're lowering the bubble point which forces ga more gas to come out of solution.
Well what does that mean? Means we're going to have excess amounts of this LNG as we continue to drill up the peran as it still is one of the more economic places. So, if you're thinking about where is an investor possibly to put long-term capital, LNG makes a great makes a great spot. Now, the interesting part is I don't think the value is going to acrue to the drillers because there's going to be an excess amount of LNG that's going to drive prices down.
I think where the value is going to acrue is a lot of these export facilities. The issue with that as an investor, you need billions of dollars. You can't come in, you know, unfortunately they're not letting the individual accredited investor into this. you need to be more of an institution to get into this.
But if you are an institution looking to bet on energy and want to make a get involved in the energy business, LNG exports in my opinion is where the value is going to acrue as this shift happens. Oh, I couldn't agree more. Speaking of crewing interest, the next story, President Trump's tariffs and sanctions on India will do more damage to the US dollar in a boomerang.
Michael, I follow NIS on X and also on his Substack and he is a very knowledgeable guy. Moscow and New Delhi both say payment bottlenecks have been resolved with most trade clearing via rupee ruble without the US dollar. I wrote this article after reading his Substack and this is very very important to understand.
Russia dominates the landscape in India, the world's third largest oil consumer and importer and relies on foreign crude for 85% of its needs. In 2025, projections indicate India will import between 4.7 and 5 million barrels per day. Woo! This marks a continuation. It's pretty important when you sit back and take a look.
The death of the US dollar is not going to happen. But it has had a severe headache thanks to the Trump sanctions and bullying of India. No, I mean you're you're absolutely right. I think it's the the pressure on President Trump if he wants to end this war swiftly. I think he understands it goes through India and China.
The problem is there's a lot of other extenduating circumstances around that. Goodness, you we rightly covered in a video a couple weeks ago. There's a lot more hair on that dog than it might than we might otherwise think. You know, India has become the third largest oil both consumer and importer and relies on about 85% of foreign crudes for its needs.
Uh to give you guys an idea, India will need to import about 4.7 to 5 million barrels per day with demand expected to grow about 3.2 two percentage points, which actually outpaces China at 1.7%. So, you know, they need more they need more oil. It's it's a it's really a shame that the the US dollar, you know, it's sort of like the man behind the mirror a little bit that pops out and says, "Wait, all you know, it's just, you know, the whole the whole value of the dollar that's just based on the value of whatever the federal government says has clearly been deteriorated." You mentioned printing money.
That has a lot to do with it. You betcha. And I I'll tell you, I just the weaponization of what the Biden administration did on the US dollar did more harm. And I if President Trump would stop weaponization of the US dollar, he would benefit the US dollar by stopping it. So let's go to the next story here.
Michael Urkott project cancellation reached a record in Q2 of 2025. What is next? I want to call attention, Michael, to this picture that is standing there with the windmills where the winds the they're not blowing. This was taken by this character called Stu Hurley as he was driving out of Abalene on Saturday morning and it was actually a very interesting to see all of these windmills in West West Texas not moving.
In the second quarter of 2025, the uh Urkott witnessed an unprecedented surge in project cancellations, marking a pivotal moment in the state's energy landscape with approximately 16 gawatts of power generation scrapped. Oops. I'll tell you, we take a look at many of these projects, only 9% of the projects in OT Q are projected to come online after 2028, signaling a bottleneck.
Oops. This has led to 14 billion dollar over $14 billion in energy cancellations by mid 2025. This is pretty big stuff. Take a look at these cancellations in this chart, Michael. Lots of them happening right now. Yeah. And a lot of that, I think, has to do with the this shift away from incentivizing more stable streams of energy and this shift towards renewables.
Now, I think things are swinging back a little bit, but again, as we predicted after the big beautiful bill, we're going to see a surge of projects being staked so that they can be eligible for the tax credit and then it'll eventually roll over and I think you'll get back to natural gas. I think everybody's talking about nuc nuclear right now when it comes to some of the future huge baseland base load demand.
So, I think it'll be really interesting where it comes there. I mean, that's a big number though. You said St. 22 billion of cancellations of clean energy projects. And and the argument, Michael, that's out there right now is that you can put a wind farm and a solar farm faster than you can do natural gas or nuclear.
But the problem is for each name plate of a megawatt, you've got to have 180 megawatt. I mean, you got to have 180 times the megawatt. So even though you can bring a megawatt online for a solar farm, you got to add 180 on top of that cuz the math don't math up as we say in Texas. No, the math the math ain't math.
Math ain't math. Let's go to this next one. Speaking of math ain't mathing. Holy smokes. US orders Orstead on Friday to halt Rhode Island wind farm construction. I got two questions on this one, Michael. In a significant blow to the offshore wind industry, the US Department of Interior Ocean, this is Doug Bergam's BEM issued a stop work order on Orstead's Revolution wind project off the coast of Rhode Island announced on August 22nd.
Here's the problem, Michael. It is 3/4 of the way done. It's 15 miles south of Rhode Island. features 65 Seammen's Gim Gim 11 megawatt turbines is fully permitted. This is where it's good news, bad news. It was fully permitted. As of the halt order, the project was approximately 80% complete. All offshore foundations have been installed and 45 of the 65 wind turbines were already in place, leaving about 20 turbines left to be installed.
I've got a couple questions. I put in here the calculations of how the potential annual revenue lost on this was about 1.68 billion would be around in there. But I could not for the life of me figure out how much that $1.86 86 billion dollar would add to the average consumer prices because we're now seeing it starting to escalate across the country in all of these wind farm and solar farms.
Everyone is seeing inflation of green energy hitting their power bills. Everybody's talking about it. Yeah. No, absolutely. I you know completely completely agree with you. I think, you know, Orstad's in a very interesting position right now when it comes to what to do on a go forward basis. And again, you would think Rhode Island, Rhode Island is in a very liberal state, so you would think that they're all for this, but again, it's a lot of this nimi stuff, not in my backyard.
I mean, I think offshore wind is the worst. I mean, you could Yeah, you can make an argument for solar in certain areas. You've got solar on your on your stuff. There there's an argument for solar. There's an argument for onshore wind. It's probably less than solar, but offshore wind, in my opinion, there's there's very little argument for it.
The costs do not outweigh the benefits. Absolutely. And the energy security, talk about security, you can sneak up to the United States now because of all the wind farms on the east coast and those things, radar does not do real well around wind farms. And I guarantee you I would not want those sitting out there from a security standpoint.
No, I I'm I'm completely with you there. I wouldn't want that either. So, you know, I think you also mentioned the the potential loss. You know, it works out to about 84 million in annual revenue loss. So, it's not even a it's not even a real winner for them right there. No. And and Orstead just absolutely tried to go back to the Danish government and get a bailout.
They've they have almost lost 50%. I have to go look fact check myself on that, but they have absolutely been obliterated as a company. Yeah, it's it's absolutely. So, all right. Well, let's jump over here and quickly cover some oil and gas finance stuff, guys. Before we do that, let's quickly pay the bills.
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Whether you're an upstream company that needs help with your marketing or first purchases, whether you're a mid-stream company who just needs a little who needs a project done from an outsourced team or you need some red team analysis, guys, the team at Reese Energy Consulting has you covered. That's reissyconulting.com.
Again, reisseneryconulting.com. And finally, guys, if you are worried about what your tax bill is going to look like, I promise you we have a solution for you guys. Invest in oil.energynewsbeat.com. go there, fill out our tax calculator which gives you an idea of what your taxable income might be and then also shows you what an of an investment in oil and gas of that amount, what it would do to your tax liability.
You know, you know, we're biased here, but we believe that investing in oil and gas is the most taxefficient product on the market. Not only because you get massive tax deductions, but because you also then get to receive distributions. This isn't, you know, we love charity, but charity doesn't give you tax, you know, it doesn't give you cash flow.
You know, we we you go buy a car, great, you get the car, but there's no you, that's a liability now, not an asset. So, I think there's a lot of different things about oil and gas that we like. That's invest in oil.energynewsbe.com. Fill out that tax form, we'll get it to you. You know, St., you know, quick topline indices as we mentioned.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ both up about one and a half percentage points off the back of Jerome Pal's speech on Friday. two and 10 year yields took a tumble down 2.3 and 1.6 percentage points on that news. Dollar index dropped about a 9/10en of a percentage point. Bitcoin at you know stabilized at about $1414,000.
Crude oil finished up about 2.2 percentage points, not 2.2.22 percentage points up to 6366. Brent oil 67.89. That's up about half a percentage point. Natural gas continues to fall down 4.5 percentage points down to $269. We saw our XOP, which is our EMP securities contract, up about 3.4 percentage points.
OIH, which are oil services, was up 5 percentage points. And I mean, you know, all in all, a a good week for oil. And I say good with a little bit of a caveat. You know, we're still in that lower 60 range, but you know, this was the first week in about 3 weeks in which we were up. A lot of that has to do kind of twofold with what Jerome Pal talked about on Friday, but also the fact that there is some uncertainty surrounding a a potential peace deal that could happen with Russia and Ukraine.
I think people a lot of people expected a framework to be announced last week. A lot of that would then ease the sanctions on Russia and not necessarily increase the amount of oil flowing from Russia, but increase where it's going. So all the it's not all just going to to India and China, which would theoretically add more barrels to kind of that global market.
you know, quote here from Giovanni Stavano, who we love. Everybody is waiting for President Trump's next step over the next coming days. It seems nothing will happen. You know, I think a lot of this ends up on on on Zalinsk's desk to see what he will do. You know, it it continues to be to be pretty dicey over there.
On a rig count standpoint, Stu, we did see from an oil rig standpoint, total was 538, so still down one. And we did see natural gas and offshore rigs staying steady. We're down about 47 rigs year-over-year, which which again continues to continues to sort of drive the cycle. And you know, after, you know, last week we saw four frack rigs added to the market.
Well, this week we saw about those two more get wiped off. We're down about 64 yearover-year on that frack count spread. And as we continue to to again, it it becomes it becomes very soft from this standpoint. So, we'll we'll see how it happens. I think the other interesting thing to note, Stu, and and what I saw this weekend is, you know, from our favorite friends over at Reuters, Crescent Energy is nearing a deal for US Shale Pier.
Vital Energy, according to sources, you know, this story dropped on Friday, probably will get announced, you know, Monday, Tuesday next week, depending on how things go. Obviously, the the person who leaked this says that things could still fall apart. To give you guys an idea, Crescent Energy has a market value of about 2.5 billion.
Vital is a market cap around 600 million. They also carry, as I mentioned early in the show, about 2.3 million of long-term debt, which is pretty pretty interesting. Um, you know, an odd combination to be honest with you, considering Crescent's energy position in the Eagleford. You know, their their focus is really the the non-shell play.
And so, I find it interesting that they're trying to dip their toe in the shell water. And not that I find it interesting, I more find it interesting that Vital is the company that they're going after. Because I want to throw this up on the screen, Stu. you know, vital energy's market cap. I mean, if you if you look at this, it's unbelievable.
Unbelievable evisceration of capital. That is a slope going down. And, you know, to put it in terms of market cap at its at its IPO in 2012, it was worth about $2 billion. By 2014, it was all the way up to $4.5 billion. And today, Steu, it sits, as we mentioned, $600 million and 2.8 billion of long-term debt.
So it's pretty it's extremely unbelievable. They've got revenue of 2 billion yet their market cap is 600 million. You know what that tells you? Their acreage sucks. And so the the part that is just confusing from an energy point standpoint is I understand wanting to get into the perian and trying to find inventory there to help boost your own market cap.
The question is why vital or vital if we're being if if we're being funny. I don't understand this to be honest with you. I think it's an odd marriage of two companies that don't align. You know, Veto's not necessarily known for the best acreage. You know, I think they've they've, you know, they they they you know, they got a master class on how to evviscerate market cap over the years, which doesn't I mean, if you compare that with Diamondback's market cap, it's basically the exact opposite looking and they're both operating with the same oil price.
That's again the funny part. So, it all comes down to acreage. I think it's an odd pairing. I'll be interested to see if they actually closes. This could be one of those they test the waters a little bit. Again, this hasn't closed yet. This is a rumor. So maybe this is a little bit of, hey, let's leak this to the press, see what the reaction is from the market, see what happens, and then make a decision.
I don't think that per se, but it could be. It's really all I got, Stu. What What' we miss? What are you worried about this week? I just want to make a comment when you were talking about rig counts and stuff. If you take a look at oil rig count over the current count, 411 changes from a year ago, it's down 47 from a year ago.
Natural gas is 122 rigs. It is flat from the previous week, but it's only down two from the previous year. So, that is a pattern that I'm looking at and have been watching. If you take a look at natural gas rigs versus oil and gas rigs, you'll see more of that as it goes forward. More steadiness in the natural gas rig count.
Yeah. and and a lot of those natural gas rigs is is is Hannesville Marcellis. You know, obviously there's natural ga, you know, anytime the Perium picks up a rig, it's going to be classified as an oil rig, even though there's a bunch of associated natural gas with it. So, there's a you kind of just got to think Hannesville, Marcelus, Udica when it comes to the natural gas, but no, you're absolutely right.
I think there's a very interesting interesting trend going on there. But that's all I've got. Stu, a you know, great week for us. We've got we got our show coming out on Tuesday. You had a great podcast that you released on Friday. So everybody hopefully check that out. But with that guys, we're going to go and let you get out of here, get back to work, start your week.
We appreciate you starting with Energy News Beat for Steuart Turley. I'm Michael Tanner. We'll see you tomorrow folks.
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