저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 주식 투자는 이해할 수 있는 기업에 장기로 투자하고, 거시경제 예측이나 단기 매매에 의존하지 말아야 한다. 투자 수단 선택: 투자자는 MMF(약 1.7%), 국채(약 4.7%), 주식 중 선택할 수 있으며, 주식이 향후 10년간 이보다 훨씬 나을 것으로 봤다. 주식 비중은 개인 성향에 따라 10%~50% 등 다양하게 정하면 된다. 거시경제 무시: 금리, 유가, 대통령, 선거 등 거시 요인은 예측이 불가능하므로 신경 쓰지 말고 기업 실적에 집중해야 한다. 1982년 경기침체도 1년 전에는 아무도 예측하지 못했다. 이해 가능한 기업 투자: 자신의 직업·경험과 연결된 산업(예: 외식업 종사자의 맥도날드·던킨·KFC 등)에서 기회를 찾아야 한다. 잘 모르는 산업(바이오, 반도체, 에너지 등)에 투자하는 것은 실수다. 확신과 연구: 10살 아이에게 2분 안에 설명할 수 없는 회사는 보유하지 말아야 한다. 주식은 복권이 아니라 기업의 지분이며, 제품과 이익의 연관성을 장기로 연구해야 한다. 재무제표 확인: 주당 4달러인 두 기업 중 현금 1억 달러·부채 없는 회사가 현금 없고 부채 1억 달러인 회사보다 안전하다. 좋은 기업을 너무 일찍 파는 것(토이저러스, 홈디포 사례)도 큰 실수였다. 가격 착시 주의: 3달러→100달러 상승이나 100달러→3달러 하락 자체가 매수 이유는 아니다. 같은 종목에 같은 금액을 투자하면 매입가와 무관하게 0원이 되면 손실은 동일하다. 역사와 변동성: 과거 93년간 10% 이상 하락은 약 2년마다, 25% 이상 하락은 약 6년마다 있었다. S&P500에 1985년 1,000달러를 투자해 끝까지 보유했다면 약 24,000달러가 됐을 것이다. 변동성은 장기 수익의 대가이며 기회로 활용해야 한다. 심리: 시장 공포에 휩쓸리지 말고 좋은 기업의 주식을 유지할 수 있는 안정된 마음이 필요하다.
다듬은 글
if you're going to buy a stock you should do certain things right if you're not willing to do these things you should leave your money in the bank account otherwise you will lose money in stock market I am Peter Lynch I manage mcgillon funds during 13 years comfortably beating the market and amateur investors today I am going to share with you the rules I use during those years to become the successful investor I am today when I wrote my books I wanted to explain to people their great advantages their edges and why they should get involved in stocks and they should do it on the right basis in 1960 people had 40 percent of their financial Assets in stocks and mutual funds including their homes in the 1980s that was down to 25 percent and it's now down to 17 why is that so the decade of the 80s was the best decade this Century for stocks but people lost all their money in the next years because their methods were so flaw I think the next rules applied 50 years ago applied five years ago and applied 20 years from now you have to know what your own whether it's a fund or stop you have a reason for that you have three choices if you're an investor you can invest in a money market fund and get 1.7 you can invest in a treasury bond and get four point seven percent or you can invest in equities I think stocks will do much better than 1.7 or 4.7 over the next 10 years now it's up to the person's side how much they want to have the stock market for some people 10 percent is aggressive for some people 50 percent is the right it's a total personal decision these rules need to be followed however my philosophy is simple if you can identify with something understand something know the product it's advantages and its success among other products then you are already on the right track ignore macro the stock of McDonald's has done well when the company has done well as a company but people worry too much about things they shouldn't even notice there's nothing to do with the money supply the price of oil who's the president who's nominated to the Supreme Court what month is the best to buy a stock the ozone layer all it doesn't matter in the next 10 years the stock will rise if McDonald's earnings increase obviously some things can influence company earnings maybe if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the restaurants movie theaters but what will you do try to predict the next recession you must know the environment but you cannot predict how the macroeconomic environment will work in the future Alan Greene spans or now Jerome Powell is ahead of the Federal Reserve the decisions on interest rates can influence the economy but even he can't predict what long-term interest rates are going to be like in one year two years three years from now he is even surprised at what has happened to interest rates in the last three years with this knowledge how can I predict the economy there were 20 interest rates 14 unemployment and 12 percent inflation during the 1982 recession I don't remember anyone telling me one year before all of this would happen there was the worst recession since the Great Depression and I did not read about it in the newspaper a year before no one told me about so it's crazy to think about these things you should focus on companies if you don't understand what the company does you should not be in it invest based on your experience let's say what you do for a living is you're involved in the restaurant industry such as Supply paper products or kitchen equipment or helping build restaurant then you've seen how popular chains like McDonald's Dunkin Donuts and KFC have gone from strength to strength Across the Nation these companies made 40 home runs their shares multiplied by 40 or 50 times their price and you don't need to make that kind of money many times in your life right in those cases all you had to do was follow the restaurant industry it seems like people start investing in all kinds of Industries energy Pharma semiconductors but they know nothing about them why don't they just stick to Industries they understand people working in the restaurant industry are buying biotechnology stocks people in the chemical industry are buying oil stocks it's absurd people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them that's maybe the most common mistake now number two if you don't think you are talented enough in ice skating or playing the cello then it's not something you will attempt however with stocks people still buy despite not being certain of the outcome people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a gamble so therefore they go forward and they bet on one stop for a week and a half and it goes up and they make two dollars on it and then they sell it and buy something else when three years is over all they've done is generate a lot of commissions and they've probably lost money invest with seriousness don't own a company if you can't explain it to a 10 year old in two minutes or less because when stock goes down and you don't understand what's going on what do you do many people are very careful when they buy dishwasher they do some research compare different brands but on the other hand they'll put ten thousand dollars in some stop they hear on the bus coming back home a stock is not a lottery ticket I mean when you own a stock it's a share of a company and I think some companies will make a lot more money in 10 years a lot more money in 20 years and that's why they will go up that's the only reason it is important to study and understand companies before investing money in them because there is a direct correlation between their products and earnings over several years and what happens to their stock price avoid others mistakes in my experience the most conspicuous mistake investors make is not analyzing a company's balance sheet I've made this mistake as well you look at a person's balance sheet you look to see what the assets they own their house if they own a car and then what debt they have and take that away that's what your net worth is this is a good thing to do with a company take a look at two companies that are very depressed at four dollars a share each both are losing a couple of million dollars a quarter one company has 100 million dollars in cash and no debt while the other company has 100 million dollars in debt and no cash there are serious problems at the second company and maybe it will end up in bankruptcy but I think my biggest mistake was selling a good company then soy double triple and quadruple the stock I sold was thought to be too high and I sold it too early I sold Toys R Us way too early and it went up 20-fold after that and I did the same thing at Home Depot these are my two biggest another mistake many people make is thinking that just because a stop has gone from three dollars to one hundred dollars is a good reason to buy it on the other hand just because a stop has fall from one hundred dollars to three dollars does not necessarily mean you should buy it your neighbor invests ten thousand dollars in a stock at one hundred dollars and you invest ten thousand dollars in that same stock at fifty dollars and the stock eventually drops to zero dollars both of you will lose the exact same amount of money all of it know the patched you should definitely study history as it gives you insight into the stock market the mod is simple over the last 93 years there have been 50 declines of 10 or more in the markets that works out to be a 10 decline every two years we call this a correction even worse 15 times we experience drops of 25 or more that's known as a bear Market that works out to be a 25 decline every six years and that's all you need to know you need to know the Market's gonna go down sometime in the future just as it has fallen in the past if you're not ready for this Falls you should not own stocks in Wall Street over the past 30 years the stock market has declined very sharply at various times you invested one thousand dollars in the S and P 500 in 1985 and sold all your shares two years later on the worst moment of Black Monday you would lose at least 30 percent of your investment on the other hand if you had held that one thousand dollars investment until today without selling a single share in the forty percent drop in the.com bubble without selling a share in the fifty percent plus drop in the 2008 financial crisis or in the thirty four percent drop in the recent pandemic your investment of one thousand dollars in 1985 would be worth approximately twenty four thousand dollars today you would have multiplied your Capital 24 times over in 38 years volatility is a partner on your journey a price any investor has to pay for long-term returns in the stock market is volatility it's great if it happens if you like a stock at 14 and it goes to six dollars and you understand the company you look at the balance sheet and the company is doing fine that's great perhaps you're hoping to get to 22 dollars with it from 14 to 22 is awesome but 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when but they are going to happen so you can take advantage of the volatility in the market if you understand what you own volatility will occur and markets will continue to have these ups and downs I think that's great opportunity in this business you need to have a good stomach and a stable mind to be able to survive Market downturns ignore other people's excessive panic and keep your shares in good companies during the most complex moments of the global economy don't forget to hit the like button and to subscribe and activate all the notifications of this channel see you in the next video greetings and good Investments
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