저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 전쟁에도 AI 주식이 상승한 이유 세 가지를 제시. ①미국 에너지 자급으로 유가 충격-금리 상승-성장주 타격 연쇄가 약화됨 ②1991 걸프전처럼 공포 선반영 후 빠른 종결 시 반등, 숏커버링 동반 ③엔비디아의 추론(inference) 칩 신제품 발표로 주가 약 3% 상승. 다만 소프트웨어 압박, 사모펀드 문제 등 근본 리스크와 유가 급등 시 위험은 여전히 존재한다고 경고.
다듬은 글
These days we can bomb Iran and take out their leadership and Wall Street doesn't care, at least so far. Maybe the war with Iran doesn't matter to the market as long as there's no real impact on our pocketbooks. Maybe the Middle East just isn't as important as it used to be. While every news channel was spiraling, artificial intelligence stocks didn't just hold.
Some of them went higher. There are three enormous reasons why this happened. And the third one involves Nvidia doing something that almost nobody saw coming. In the day we didn't produce enough oil, so we had to worry about being cut off by the key producers in the region. If Iran had blocked the Strait of Hormuz 20 or 30 years ago, it would have been a huge deal for us.
Perhaps an instant prelude to a recession. That's reason number one, and it's hiding in plain sight. For decades, a war in the Middle East meant one thing to American investors, oil prices spike, the economy slows, stocks fall. That was the automatic chain reaction. It was almost a law of financial physics, but that law no longer applies the way it used to.
America has quietly become one of the largest energy producers on the planet. We don't depend on the Middle East to keep our lights on or our supply chains moving the way we once did. Prices around the world spiked double digits. But in our country, natural gas kind of traded unchanged. Why? Again, because we have more nat gas than we know what to do with.
Think about what that actually means for artificial intelligence stocks specifically. The biggest fear when oil spikes is inflation. And inflation forces the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high. High rates are brutal for growth stocks, and artificial intelligence companies are the definition of growth stocks.
They're valued on what they're expected to earn years from now. When rates go up, those future earnings get discounted heavily. So, the whole sector bleeds, but if an oil shock can't actually take root in the American economy the way it used to, that entire chain reaction breaks down, and that changes everything for how you think about your artificial intelligence positions during geopolitical chaos.
Now, here's reason number two, and this one is about market psychology more than economics. This moment feels a bit like the first Gulf War. I know you got to really go back in time, but there was a lot of negativity in the lead-up. But, once United States got involved, we saw that much of the wanted Iraqi Republican Guard was paper tiger.
So, the price of oil collapsed instantly, and the stock market roared. History doesn't repeat exactly, Brewster, but it rhymes loudly enough that traders pay attention. In 1991, markets spent weeks pricing in the worst-case scenario. Fear drove prices down before a single shot was fired. Then, the moment the conflict proved quick and decisive, the fear trade reversed violently.
Oil collapsed, stocks exploded higher. Investors who panicked out at the bottom missed one of the sharpest rallies in a generation. Right now, there's a real sense that this conflict could follow a similar script. Iranian air defenses proved almost nonexistent. The military operation is surgical, not a ground invasion.
And as long as it stays that way, the market isn't going to price in a prolonged economic disruption, but there's a deeper psychological layer here that's worth understanding. When investors saw that the worst-case scenario wasn't materializing, they didn't just stop selling. They started buying back everything they had sold in fear the week before.
That's called a short squeeze in market terms. Traders who had bet against tech stocks expecting a war-driven collapse suddenly found themselves on the wrong side of the trade. They had to buy back those positions fast, which pushed prices even higher. So, part of what looked like confidence in artificial intelligence stocks was actually forced buying from people who had gotten the trade wrong.
That's an important distinction because it means the rally was sharper than underlying fundamentals alone would justify. If you were to ask me if the market was too bullish today, I'd say it certainly feels like we forgotten a lot of the problems that dogged us last week, but the problems are still there.
And that's the tension every artificial intelligence investor needs to sit with right now. The relief rally feels real, but so does the risk. We haven't solved the deeper problems that were weighing on tech stocks before this conflict started. Software companies are still facing brutal pressure from artificial intelligence platforms that can write code cheaper and faster than human developers.
Private equity firms are still dealing with their own structural headwinds. We've just temporarily stopped thinking about all of it, which means right now we're in a very specific window. The geopolitical fear has faded. The old inflation playbook failed to fire. Forced buying pushed prices higher, and the market is sitting in a moment of relief, not resolution.
The real question is what happens next? What's the actual fundamental reason to stay invested in artificial intelligence right now? Not just the absence of a reason to panic. That's exactly where reason number three comes in. And honestly, this is the one that matters most for your portfolio. Because while everyone was watching the news cycle, something happened inside the artificial intelligence sector itself that most people completely missed.
Oh, and the supposedly disappointing tech companies from last week, led by Nvidia, we saw press reports this week that Nvidia's about to announce a new chip that can compete with pesky offerings from competitors. Here's the context you need to understand why this is such a big deal. For the past several weeks, Nvidia have been under real pressure.
Competitors, including some of Nvidia's own long-time customers, had started building their own artificial intelligence chips, specifically chips designed for what's called inference. That's the process where an artificial intelligence model actually runs and generates answers after it's been trained.
Think of it this way. Training an artificial intelligence model is like teaching someone everything they need to know. Inference is that same person actually doing the job every single day. Training happens once. Inference happens billions of times, which means whoever wins the inference chip market doesn't just get a slice of the artificial intelligence boom.
They get a recurring compounding piece of every single query that gets processed across every artificial intelligence product on the planet. That's why this battleground matters so much, and that's why some of Nvidia's biggest customers, companies that had spent billions buying Nvidia's hardware, started publicly bragging that their own custom inference chips were better and cheaper.
For a moment, it genuinely looked like Nvidia's stranglehold on artificial intelligence hardware might finally have a real crack in it. The stock had already been falling, sentiment was turning, the narrative was shifting. Then came the report that Nvidia is preparing to answer back with a new chip built specifically to compete in that inference market, and the stock jumped nearly 3% on a day when a war had broken out in the Middle East.
That's not a coincidence. That's the market telling you something. When the largest company on Earth by market value moves 3% higher while bombs are falling somewhere else in the world, it means investors believe the artificial intelligence story is bigger than the geopolitical noise. It means the sector has its own gravity now, strong enough to pull upward even against the force of a war.
Could we wake up tomorrow with the futures down 2% because something happened in the Strait of Hormuz that actually produces higher oil prices? That question is still on the table. Nobody is saying the risk is gone. If the conflict expands, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gets disrupted for real, and oil prices spike and hold, then the calculus changes.
Artificial intelligence stocks aren't immune to a genuine inflation shock. They're not immune to a rate environment that turns suddenly hostile again. The risk hasn't disappeared. It's just been pushed to the side for now. What matters is that our country's own resources are much more bountiful than they used to be anytime in the last 50 years or longer.
And that's the foundation beneath all three reasons. America's energy position has fundamentally changed. That doesn't mean artificial intelligence stocks are bulletproof. It means the old automatic chain reaction, war in the the Middle East equals pain for your tech portfolio, no longer fires the way it used to.
The rules have changed. Most investors are still playing by the old ones. So, here's where things stand. A war broke out. Futures were down 2% in the middle of the night. Every instinct said sell, and instead, artificial intelligence stocks closed higher. Three reasons drove that outcome. America's energy independence broke the old oil shock playbook.
Market psychology followed the Gulf War script, where fear peaked before the first shot and reversed fast. And Nvidia walked back onto the stage with a new chip that reminded everyone why it still leads the artificial intelligence hardware and race.
댓글 0