저자: Zadmani · 외국인
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S&P500 5주 연속 하락 끝에 반등했으나 이란 전쟁 불확실성 지속, 유가 약 110달러. 3월 고용 17.8만명 호조, 소비·제조업 양호, 1분기 S&P500 이익 13% 성장 예상. JP모건 다이먼은 인플레이션·금리 상승 리스크 경고. OpenAI IPO 시점 내부 이견, 막대한 적자 우려. 넷플릭스는 골드만이 매수 상향, 카바나는 BofA가 중립 하향.
다듬은 글
public.com presents a quick overview, your daily market update in less than 10 minutes. My name is Zadmani, and today is Monday, April 6th. In today's episode, we'll tell you about the latest economic warnings from Jamie Diamond. We will also tell you about the internal dispute at OpenAI regarding their IPO.
Then wait until the end of the show to find out how much money the new Mario movie made . We have a great show for you today. Let's begin. Stocks finally snapped a five-week losing streak last week, with the S&P 500 jumping more than 3% while the Nasdaq rose more than 4%. Stocks have been falling since the start of the war with Iran on February 28.
But early last week, signs of de-escalation finally appeared, leading to relief. Now some of that optimism has faded toward the end of the week after President Trump signaled new attacks on Iran. And then, over the weekend, Trump doubled down, threatening strikes on Iran's infrastructure if they didn't open the Strait of Hormuz.
So, yes, we are now in the sixth week of the war, and the markets are still tense about what might happen. There are now rumors that the Pakistanis are negotiating a ceasefire that would end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So we'll see if that happens. There is still a lot of uncertainty right now.
Oil prices are still quite high, trading at around $110 per barrel as of this morning. But if the ceasefire is confirmed, we could be in for an epic stock market rally and oil prices could plummet. Looking further, we received some good macroeconomic data last week . On Friday, the March employment report showed that the U.S.
economy added 178,000 jobs. This is well above the expected 59,000 and is a significant recovery from February's 133,000 job losses. So, it looks like the labor market is recovering and feeling good. The unemployment rate has now risen to 4.3% due to a decrease in the number of people participating in the labor force.
So, it wasn't a perfect report . However, when it comes to the big picture, I believe the US economy is holding up despite everything that is happening right now. Retail sales rose 0.5% in February. Consumer spending appears strong, and manufacturing also had a third consecutive month of growth. We are now about to start the reporting season, which starts next week, and analysts expect the S&P 500 to grow earnings by 13% in the first quarter.
This would make it its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth . So the next two to three weeks could be very important. So, if you're new here, now is the time to subscribe to the podcast and listen daily to stay up to date. Let's take a look at some of the headlines, starting with warnings from Jamie Diamond.
Remember how I just said that the US economy is holding up well despite everything that's going on? Well, in his annual letter to shareholders, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond reiterated it. But he also said there are some risks beneath the surface. His biggest concern seems to be rising inflation.
Jamie Diamond warned that a war with Iran could cause further shocks to oil and commodity prices, leading to rising inflation and potentially leading to higher interest rates. And rising interest rates will be bad news for virtually every asset class, including stocks, bonds, private markets, real estate, and more.
But also remember that as the head of the world's largest bank, Jamie Diamond has to focus on risk. He tends to have a rather negative attitude most of the time. In his letter, Jamie Diamond also touched on the area of private lending. You know, private credit is technically a competitor to the lending that these big banks provide.
So I understand why he's not a big fan of private lending, but he says that lending standards and private credit have been quietly loosening across the board. He doesn't seem to think that the collapse of private lending is a systemic risk, so it shouldn't bring down the entire financial system like it did in 2008, but it's definitely worth watching.
And we've been covering some of the private lending issues on the show for the past few weeks, and I think we're finally going to have to delve into that in the near future. Now, the other part of the letter that's getting a lot of attention is Jamie Diamond's comments on politics. He was very patriotic in the letter.
It sounded like an appeal to Congress. He talked about the US military , trade policy, the education system, even city government. And there are rumors that Jamie Diamond may run for president in 2028. So, I guess we'll see. I mean, he was the CEO of JP Morgan for over 20 years. Let's switch to OpenAI, because there's always some drama going on there.
We all know about the rumors that OpenAI could go public as early as this year, but according to a report from the Information, there seem to be internal disagreements about the timing of the IPO. CEO Sam Allman wants to go public this year, but CFO Sarah Freer told colleagues she does n't think the company is ready yet.
The thing is, since OpenAI is now a private company, we don't have a complete picture of their financial health. There are now many reports on the company's revenue, computing costs, and users, but if OpenAI were to go public, they would have to show all of this information. And who knows how the market will react when they get concrete numbers on how much money OpenAI is actually losing.
According to the latest Wall Street Journal estimates, OpenAI is set to lose $85 billion in 2028, which would be one of the largest losses in the corporation's history. So how will public market investors react to this? I think this is a legitimate concern , and I understand why OpenAI's CFO wants to hold off on an IPO.
I think the bigger problem is that OpenAI doesn't seem to have a clear strategy for the future. A few weeks ago, it was reported that the company had terminated its agreement with Side Quest in order to control costs. They even shut down their video app Sora. But last week, the company bought a popular live tech podcast/talk show called TBPN for over $100 million.
$100 million is nothing for OpenAI. They just raised over $120 billion a few weeks ago, and I personally look forward to podcasters and content creators benefiting. But this acquisition is another example of OpenAI once again engaging in side quests and suffering from shiny object syndrome, not focusing on its core product to better compete with Google's Anthropic and Gemini.
I wonder if Sam Allman will find himself in a hot spot. Earlier this year, producer Mike hotly suggested that Sam Allman might be fired as CEO of OpenAI. And I'm starting to think that it's entirely possible. Now , selfishly, for content reasons, I hope OpenAI eventually holds its IPO this year, because I can't wait to see their actual numbers.
Also , if anyone from Anthropic is listening and wants to purchase their own podcast, you can write a private message. Just saying. Let's talk about some stocks that are moving in price today. Netflix is getting a boost this morning after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to "buy." Netflix shares have fallen more than 15% in the past 6 months, largely because the market didn't like Netflix's attempt to buy Warner Brothers Discovery, but that's mostly behind us now.
Paramount beat Netflix. In fact, they received a $2.8 billion contract termination fee because of this. And while the stock has recovered from its lows earlier this year, Goldman Sachs still views Netflix as a buying opportunity, especially given the merger distraction. Netflix continues to grow its user base despite price increases, and they are also scaling their advertising business.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs believes that Netflix may start buying back its shares, which could also be a big boost to the stock price. As a result, Netflix shares are up about 2% this morning. On the other hand, Carvana shares fell after Bank of America downgraded the stock to neutral and lowered its price target to $360 per share .
The biggest concern for Carvana is rising oil prices. Higher gas prices mean less discretionary spending among consumers, which is n't good for a company that sells used cars online. Additionally, Bank of America does not anticipate interest rate cuts anytime soon , making auto loans more expensive, which could also negatively impact demand.
And to top it all off, Carvana was already showing signs of some cracks in its business before this. The company's gross retail profit per unit fell more than 7% year-over-year in the latest quarter, and the stock has fallen more than 16% in the past six months, with shares down another 2% this morning.
Let's end the show with an interesting fact. The Super Mario Galaxy movie had the biggest opening weekend of 2026, grossing $190 million at the North American box office and $373 million worldwide. So, this was a huge debut for the film, despite critics completely hating it. The Rotten Tomatoes rating was around 44%.
This is similar to the first Mario movie coming out in 2023. Critics also hated this film. However, the film grossed $1.4 billion at the box office. I actually watched the first Mario movie over the weekend with my kids and I thought it was pretty good. My kids, however, thought it was the best thing they had ever seen.
So yes, kids don't care about Rotten Tomatoes ratings and critics' opinions. And it seems that children's movies based on video games have now become Hollywood's " cash cow." Last year it was Minecraft, now it's Mario. Sonic continues to make sequels. And there is also a live-action film "The Legend of Zelda" in development.
So yeah, it looks like Hollywood is trying to squeeze out video game intellectual property right now. If you saw the new Mario movie over the weekend , let me know what you thought. I'll probably watch it with my daughter over the next week or so anyway . Well, guys, that's the summary for today. I hope you enjoyed today's episode.
If so, and you have five seconds to spare, give us five stars on Apple, Spotify, YouTube – wherever you listen to your podcast. And if you're listening on Spotify, don't forget to vote in today's Spotify poll. Leave us a comment on Spotify. All this activity really helps us and other people find this show.
Thank you very much for listening, watching, and commenting. A big thank you to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes. And see you again here tomorrow.
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