저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 연준·ECB·영란은행은 금리 인상을 멈춘 뒤 매 데이터에 반응하기보다 장기 전략적 관점을 가져야 하며, 과도한 반응은 채권시장 변동성을 키운다. 주요 주장: 연준은 정책 시차(lag)를 이해하고 단기 데이터·금리 등락에 과잉 반응(over-steering)하지 말아야 한다. 최근 채권 금리가 하루 8bp 오르고 내린 것이 대표 사례이며, 이런 변동성은 경제를 해치고 미국의 금융시장 위상을 약화시킨다. 연준 발언 관련: 카시카리 총재의 인플레이션 재가속 경계 발언을 언급하며, 시장은 이를 금리 하락·금융여건 완화 우려로 받아들였다고 해석. 연준은 '관망(wait and see)'을 표명했지만, 인플레 재상승 시 재행동 권리를 남겨둬야 한다고 봤다. 정책 방향 제언: 연준 위원들은 말은 하되 통화정책의 전략적 방향, 은행 감독, 비은행 금융기관 안정성에 대해 말해야 한다. 포워드 가이던스가 핵심이며, 재정정책·글로벌 경제가 안정을 주지 못하는 상황에서 정책은 변동성 억제자가 되어야 한다. 대차대조표 및 과거 정책: 연준 대차대조표 축소 미흡 비판에 대해, 연준이 임시 조치였던 양적완화를 장기화해 과도한 위험추구를 낳았다고 평가. 2013년 테이퍼 탠트럼 때 충격을 감내하지 못한 점을 지적. 금리 전망(2024): 2022년은 인플레 대응, 2023년은 고금리 장기화 소통이 핵심이었고, 2024년은 성장 둔화(금리 하락 요인)와 국채 발행·차환 증가(금리 상승 요인)의 줄다리기가 될 것. 금리 급하락을 바란다면 경기 급랭이 동반되고 금리 리스크가 신용 리스크로 바뀌어 더 다루기 어려워진다고 경고. 리스크: 금리 인하 기대가 경기 침체 신호일 수 있음, 국채 공급 급증에 따른 금리 상승 압력. 예측 대상 자산 관련: 개별 종목·지수·금·비트코인 등에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 미국채금리는 명시적 방향 예측이 아닌 '금리가 크게 등락하지 않는 균형' 및 2024년 줄다리기 언급에 그침.
다듬은 글
next guest says the four most important central banks effectively called a Timeout on policy action over the last two weeks he says they should use that strategy wisely I want to bring in Muhammad Al Aran he is the chief economic adviser at alian Mohamed what do you mean by using that strategy wisely good morning Becky you know in sports there are different times of time there different types of timeouts that's a timeout that's forced on you there's a timeout that you take simply to um decide the next play but then there's a timeout which more strategic and I think what's critical is the is for the fed the ECB and the bank of England to take a much longer view as to where they are on the rate cycle recognize that they're done that they've done enough and sit back and worry about other more strategic issues um then simply react to the latest set of data we saw it again yesterday Becky we had even more fed speak WEA to the latest move in the bond market the result of which we saw yields go up eight basis points come down eight basis points they should to quote Hamilton talk less and smile more you mean you're talking about Neil kashari who said that he thinks they should be very alert for the Resurgence of inflation and that they may have to act more quickly now to make sure that they can get inflation back to the 2% desired level yeah and what most people think he was re ing to was the Fallen yields and concern that Financial conditions have loosened too much um we cannot have a Fed that is reacting to yesterday's data all the time their tools operate with the lag they need to take a more strategic View and they need to stop being volatility enhancers you know this unusual volatility in the bond market is not good for the economy it can break something and it undermines the standing of the US in Global Financial markets isn't flexibility a good thing the idea of saying we're going to wait and see I I think everybody kind of took the message from that that they probably aren't going to act again anytime soon but they want to reserve the right to say that if inflation pops up again that they will act again rather than letting the markets kind of Take Off to the Races even more than they already have on this idea that they're done and that they're they're paused for the moment no absolutely I think they did the right thing and you've heard me say for a while now they should stop the problem they have is they they seem unable not to respond to the latest Market development the latest data point in a world that's inherently fluid they should just sit back look and and take that strategic view you talked about and not react to every single data point and every single move in bond yields but but J pel's not you're you're basically basically saying you don't think any of the other fed presidents should be allowed to speak no I'm saying speak but give us a strategic view of where monetary policy is going talk about the importance of Bank supervision talk about the importance of non-bank financial institution and stability there simply do not overreact Becky think about it you have a tool that acts with a lag if you over steer to every single data point you will end up making everybody else sick in that car you cannot over steer and that's what's been happening and there's been studies now that show that the FED has contributed to a lot more Market volatility than we've seen before you know it's even better analy it's not a car you ever try to steer a boat when you over correct that says you're going that way and then oh I mean it's it's even more like that isn't it Mohamad I mean a car you can sort of get back and but the boat's already headed that way because because of the water but yeah it's exactly what you're saying it it's a there's a lag they got to understand that there's a lag but they don't they don't seem to that would that would cause them to have to look into the future which they they they never try to do well former fed officials and fed chairs have and that's been really important I mean that's a whole point of forward policy guidance forward is the key word there it is not reacting to yesterday's data point it it is for and this is important because we know fiscal policy isn't going to offer stability we know that the global economy isn't going to offer stability so you need an anchor and it's particularly important at a time when growth is slowing so policy should be volatility reducer not volatility enhancing it we're going to have Senator Rick Scott on he wants to hold JP accountable for not reducing uh the the balance sheet of the fed and I immediately thought if you had to if you had to name defendants in a lawsuit against people on the FED for for doing that how far back would you have to go it's not just J pal is it we got to go all the who do we got to go back to Ben banki and include yell I mean you You' go back a while because unfortunately the FED turned what was supposed to be simply a bridging operation into something much more longterm and every time they tried to exit remember 20 2013 May the taper tantrum um they didn't have the courage to absorb the immediate Market reaction it's like i' said it at the time it's like taking candy away from from a kid the kid will yell but the answer is not give them more candy and unfortunately we became over reliant on central bank balance sheets and they did a lot of damage because they allowed excessive risk-taking you were talking about weworks earlier just look at what's been happening in terms of excessive risk taking all around the financial markets and that was a combination of reliable liquidity from a non-commercial buyer and that's a really important characteristic and secondly interest rate that remain too low for too long Mohammad um ultimately you think that the FED won't have to do anything that rates will come down from where they are right now or they'll have to be brought down because you think the economy's headed into a recession and the FED will have to react so Becky I think the fed's influence on rates now is mostly over in 2022 it was all about them playing catchup to being behind on inflation in 2023 it was all about them communicating that rates will be higher for longer 2024 is going to be tuug of war between lower growth on the one hand pushing yields down and the fact that you're going to see an enormous increase in bond auctions an enormous increase in the refinancing need of the government and we I hope that that tgof war States balance and all those who are wishing for lower rates quickly I tell them be careful what you're wishing for because if we get them it's because the economy has gone down too quickly and if that happens then interest rate risk turns into credit risk and that's much harder to navigate for market so let's hope that that tug of war with the FED out of the story now that tug of war between somewhat lower growth and higher Bond issuance is a is a well equilibrated one that doesn't create problems for the real economy
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