저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 주식시장 전체가 최고 수준의 거품이라고 단정하지 않으며, 개별 종목별로 거품 여부를 구분해서 봐야 한다고 주장한다. 거품 판단 기준 6가지: 전통적 가치지표(PE 등) 대비 가격 수준은 고려 요소일 뿐 거품 그 자체는 아니며, 저금리로 채권 배수가 높아 주식이 낮은 수익률과 경쟁하는 상황은 주식 배수가 높은 것을 어느 정도 정당화한다고 설명한다. 지속 불가능한 조건을 가격이 반영하고 있는지, 투기적 요소(칵테일파티에서 평소 투자하지 않던 사람들까지 참여하는 현상, 강한 강세 심리)가 있는지, 미래 구매(선매입, 아파트 선구매 등)가 늘었는지도 거품의 지표로 본다. 체계적 필터 분석 결과: 시장 전체 거품 지표는 1910년 이후 기준 2007년보다는 높지만 2000년·1929년보다는 낮은 수준이다. 상위 1000개 종목 중 거품 종목 비중은 약 5%, S&P500 기준 약 2%로 2000년 대비 낮다. 거품 종목 지수는 S&P500 대비 약세로 거품이 꺼지는 과정이 진행 중이라고 본다. 거품의 구조적 원인: 1900년 이후 부채/GDP, 금리, 통화 발행 차트를 보면 고부채에 제로금리와 대규모 통화 발행이 겹칠 때 거품이 형성되며, 현재가 그 상황에 해당한다. 적자 IPO(이익 없음, 높은 주가매출비율)도 거품 신호다. 결론적으로 시장 전체를 거품으로 규정하기보다 어떤 종목이 거품인지 구분해야 하며, 많은 종목은 거품이 아니라고 말한다. 거품은 확대와 수축을 반복하므로 타이밍이 중요하다. 출연자 전망: 시장 전체는 최고점 거품이 아니지만 일부 종목은 거품이고, 거품 종목은 조정 국면에 있다는 것이 달리오의 입장이다.
다듬은 글
hi everyone uh it's it's so good to be here on behalf of all the people that are being helped by robin hood um i you know uh got to know robin hood since i got to know paul jones when robin hood was basically a glimmer in his eyes and he would play basketball with kids down in bed stuy i was lucky enough to see uh what he and all the robin hood people have done to help alleviate poverty in the united states in a very uh personal and effective way and uh be able to be a part of it and what you're all doing is great so i just wanted to thank you for what you're doing and tell you how delighted i am to be able to be here and to do my small part uh i was asked to talk about uh bubbles you know is the market in a bubble stock market in a bubble what's in a bubble uh and uh i just wanted to uh give you some thoughts about that and i've got about 10 minutes to do it and so i want to be quick um a bunch of years ago i started to think about well what is a bubble what what do i mean when i have a bubble because i watched a lot of bubbles over my something like 50 years of investing um and um i i basically think uh thought there were six things that made a bubble in my mind and i'm gonna rattle them off then i'll apply them so that you know what i think first you know how how high are prices relative to the traditional measures of prices is a consideration for example you know our pe is high or um yields uh low and that kind of thing that's a consideration but it's not what i mean by a bubble let's let's say for example you can have prices high which means uh returns low and you can have that go on for a very long time that doesn't mean a bubble pops so i'm really looking at whether you get a pop but still it's an ingredient so for example let's say if we were to take the bond yields the bond yields are extremely low levels and so say think about bonds as having a multiple the multiples of bonds are you know like 75 times earnings or something depending on what bond market you're operating in and so when stocks compete with bonds they're competing with low returns and so it's not unreasonable to think that the stock market could have a multiple of 50 times if bonds have a 75 time multiple why can't bonds and that means a low return so that's one of the considerations but it's not all the second is prices are discounting unsustainable conditions so unsustainable starts to be part of this picture of a bubble unsustainable means that by the nature of the buying whoever is doing the buying and how of that supply demand that means that that won't be sustained and that produces a correction or price is going down and then um there's this speculative element number three so one of those measures of the speculative elements is new buyers in the market they're attracted in the market you know it's the sort of thing where you know you go to a cocktail party and people who are never involved in the thing are investing in it and that could be tech stocks and it could be real estate and whatever but you know they're drawn in and that there's a big bullish sentiment so everybody wants not having these things makes you feel dumb that kind of thing and then also uh number five on my list is big purchases uh forward purchases you know like if somebody's buying apartments that they don't own because they think that the apartments are going to go up or back in the days where i traded a lot of commodities i would watch that those who used commodities would rather than buy from hand to mouth they would get a lot of forward coverage in other words buy inventory to protect themselves against the prices going up and so when they go from as we have recently seen in commodities when they go from not uh having forward coverage because prices went down and they kept falling and they say i don't want to own it to and then uh it going up and they say i want to be protected against it going up that movement causes a lot of buying and so on so that's buyers that have extended those forward purchases are an indicator that i use this table here that i'm showing shows for the stock market as a whole those items that you know are we in a bubble is the stock market in a bubble well i apply that basically that framework to all individual securities and i do that in a systematic way because my process is to write down the criteria to use filters and so on and and try to see which are in a in a bubble so uh there are different different stocks some are in bubbles it seems to me some are not in bubbles and the stock market as a whole uh is indicated by that table let me just go to the next chart so this chart goes back to 1910 and it shows the on an indicator of the degree to which we're in a bubble you could see that it's bubbly and it's not as high as the total bubble but not not as high as it was in 2000 not as high as it was in 1929 but higher than it was in 2007 let's take a look at the stocks that are in a bubble a lot of stocks are not in a bubble according to those criteria um so this goes back uh back to 1995 that chart and it gives you an idea so this is the first chart is the share of the top thousand charts that are uh in a bubble um and so it's been about five percent or the share of the s p 500 about two percent by comparison to those in 2000 again not as high as the 2000 bubble or the 29 bubble which we're comparable but higher than 2007 so let's go to the next chart and this shows um with the bubble stocks i put together an index of those that are bubble stocks and this shows how they've performed in relationship to the s p 500 and so you could start to see as we're uh breaking down the bubble and um i believe that that's likely to continue but uh being in a bubble one of the things is you know bubbles can expand and contract and the timing is a big issue okay so why are we in a bubble uh this chart goes back to 1900 and the top chart shows a debt to gdp the bottom chart in the blue line shows interest rates and the red line shows the printing of money this the the amount of money that that's going in and so what you can see is when you have a lot of debt like we have a lot of debt now and there's a lot of increasing uh debt and there's the hitting of zero interest rates in both cases there's the printing of a lot of money and that's a key element of the bubbles because um they have a lot of liquidity uh that comes into the market and then there's a lot of throwing around that money in terms of bidding up all sorts of assets so you could see that red line you could see how when the blue line hits zero interest rates 1930 starting in 2008 and since we've had that movement then you have you see the largest movement now so a lot of liquidity a lot of debt financed debt monetization makes for a classic bubble other items are new ipos with particularly if they have no earnings high price to revenue or in many cases no prospect of of making money those are bubble considerations too so i would say you can't say the stock market is in the highest a bubble you can't even say that it's necessarily in a bubble you have to distinguish uh which ones which stocks are in a bubble or have been in a bubble uh from those that are not in a bubble there are a lot of stocks that aren't and that bubble is a little bit like the bond markets bubble so i hope that gave you a little bit of flavor of bubbles and how i look at them and where we are thank you you
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