저자: INVESTOPY · 외국인
다듬은 글
let's talk about that I mean this seems like everyone in this room is you know you've heard of this chat GPT and I know this is stuff that interests you and you're probably the sort of guy who's been on top of this stuff for years and it just kind of bubbles up for a lot of people like us it seems like I haven't seen a technology that's kind of captivated the public you know in a while yeah talk to us a little about these large language models I mean you just talked a little bit about how transformative AI is going to be in all these different Industries what about it from an investment standpoint because you and I were just chatting about this you know I saw a headline the company I've never heard of them two guys leave Google chapter or you know chapter dot Ai and they're looking to raise 250 million dollars at a billion dollar evaluation you know maybe what have we learned here because that seems like a big round for something that is probably a handful of Engineers kind of banging away at a at a chat bot right now um you know when I was at Facebook my team and I were probably the first folks that really commercialized machine learning in the wild you know when our first versions of news feed and some other technologies that you guys probably interact with every day um essentially was about using machines to guess and to guess better and better over time so that's basically what this is just on steroids and you know what chat GPT shows you is just the amazing value in allowing computers to assist you in doing work it's like a con you know calculator replacing the Abacus replacing a pen and paper um what's important though is this Buffett quote a friend of mine told me this yesterday which I loved he told this story about refrigeration and the story he tells is that the people and the person that invented refrigeration made some money but most of the money was made by Coca-Cola who used Refrigeration to build an Empire and I view these large language models as Refrigeration will there be some money made in it I think so but the Coca-Cola has yet to be built and those are the companies that are really going to monetize it and in order to monetize it well here's a basic thing about machine learning that's worth knowing which is if you take 1 000 of the same inputs and give it to Facebook and Microsoft and Google and Amazon they'll all come up with the same machine learning model but if you have one extra thing one little ingredient that all of those other companies don't have your output can be markedly different it's like giving two great chefs three ingredients when you give the third Chef one extra one that person has the ability to do something very special so right now we are in the world where everybody is crawling the open web we're going to move to a world whereas everybody gets sophisticated enough where when Refrigeration is widely available somebody's going to say you know what this site I'm not going to allow anybody else to access it's only me only for my models and those models will become better and so we have to let that play out a little bit and so it's going to be a little bit of a really interesting arms race so the the next wave of M A for example could be companies like Google and Microsoft and Facebook looking at these companies saying can they be viable inputs to my large language models or to my other machine learning and AI models so you could see M A activity that drives that differentiation before anything else so lots of really so then as a result for guys like us early stage investors we may want to invest in companies that have zero viable Public Market potential whatsoever but is building a data repository that's so unique that we know that it will feed one of these bigger companies and their efforts in Ai and that could very well justify making an investment that we would otherwise not make today knowing what we know and on that front I mean so regulatory really quickly because we only have a couple minutes here I mean you know you know 10 years ago Facebook would just buy the next thing right they'd pay a billion dollars you know the fact that Microsoft paid a billion dollar investment in open AI you know in a different regulatory environment they might have just bought it they couldn't Buy open AI but you know does this also excite you about early stage Tech investing in this environment does the regulatory environment actually help your cause to let some of these companies bubble up a bit further than they might if they were just kind of taken over by the incumbents yeah I mean I think the incumbents are going to have to Veer into adjacent M A that it's not obvious that will pass regulatory muster and then separately it'll allow people who build the coca-colas of the world who use Refrigeration properly to actually emerge with a lot less threat where the cross bundling and the cross-selling and upselling that the big tech companies use to basically eliminate a lot of competition will be very difficult I mean a classic example look at the emergence of reels and what reels has done and maybe it's not as obvious to everybody here to the Enterprise value of tick tock I mean I think we've all thought that bite dancer is going to be a two or three hundred billion dollar company there's all this you know value tied up in it all these folks have these big stakes in it but if you look at the growth of reels it's probably had the Enterprise value of tick tock before the regulatory stuff has happened so that kind of stuff I think um allows when all the big folks are fighting amongst each other it allows the Little Folks to kind of you know hit the seam and actually build something yeah all right before we get out of here a lot of you guys are probably all in podcast fans you know that he has uh you know the tendency for a little hot take give me something man I'm going on fast money in an hour here what do you got what's what's a hot take to leave this audience with wow what's a hot take well you know my my most interesting thing right now is I have looked at and Mike Wilson inspired me to do this I basically went back and I looked at Google's p l and just for you know shits and giggles I took all the tack the traffic acquisition costs that they pay and I put it back into cogs and I capitalized it and I'm like what's the true PE if you did that and then I did the same thing for Facebook because you know you hear this constant thing which is like oh this thing trades at 20 times it's so cheap oh Facebook trades it you know eight times it's so cheap and it turns out Facebook trades at 19 times and Google would traded 31 times and then all of a sudden it's not so cheap so there is a hot take there you go which is when you look at software businesses and you actually capitalize some of these costs and look at true ebitda true ebitda they're not nearly as interesting on a implied yield basis you know you sound like a good friend of mine Jim chanos um this sort of economic I was going to say cold war with China but it seems pretty hot how does that affect some of the ways you think about these transformative Technologies because again you know I mean you know our government is Banning Advanced you know technology sales to China it just seems like we're going to be in this bipolar Tech world and it's great for America does it okay unbelievable it's unbelievable Boon for America's technology sector yeah you know the thing is when you look inside of China they are extremely good at process engineering they're also extremely good at additive manufacturing you know they're extremely great in things like Specialty Chemicals but all of those things when you think about the precursors come from American European Australian companies that now have a huge incentive to diversify that supply chain away from China that benefits American companies in a massive way and so China's response is muted so for example we said we are going to slow down the flow of extremely Advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment into China China's response said we are not going to allow you guys to get the input components to certain silicon Wafers that are used in PV cells I mean if you had to rank these things no offense but we can make solar cells the equipment that you need to get to two nanometer scale in chip design comes from the Dutch the Germans and the Americans and so it's a really interesting moment where this you know the game theory optimal View is that China's cost advantages actually get moved over
Comments 0