저자: Investing with Subayal · 외국인
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you need an edge to make money too people have incredible edges and they throw them away i'll give you a quick example of uh smith klein this is a stocking that had tagamet now you didn't have to buy smith klein when tag met was doing clinical trials you don't have to buy smith klein with tag met was talked about in the new england journal of medicine or the british version lancet you could have bought smith klein when tagamet first came out a year after came out let's say your spouse your mother your father you're a nurse you're a drugged you're writing all these prescriptions tagamet was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers and it was a wonderful pill for the company because if you just stopped taking it the ulcer came back see it was it would be a crummy product that he took it for a buck and it went away but it was a great product for the company but you could have bought it two years after the product was on the market and made five or six times your money i mean all the drugs all the nurses all the people millions of people saw this product and they're all buying oil companies you know or drilling rooms you know it happens and then three years later four years later galaxy even a bigger company's a huge company british company brought zantac which was a better at that time an improved product and you could have seen that take market share do well you could buy blacks on triple your money so you only need a few stocks in your lifetime they're in your industry i think of people if you've worked in the auto industry let's say you're an auto dealer the last 10 years you would've seen chrysler come up with a minivan you've seen if you're a buick dealer a toyota deal honda dealer you would have seen the chrysler dealership packed with people you could have made 10 times your money on chrysler a year after the minivan came out ford introduces the tourist sable the most successful line of cars in the last 20 years ford went up seven fold on the tour stable so if you're a car dealer you only need to buy a few stocks every decade when your lifetime's over you don't need a lot of five baggers to make a lot of money starting with ten thousand dollars or five thousand dollars so in your own industry you're gonna see a lot of stocks and that's what follows me they're good stocks out there looking for you and people just aren't listening and they're just not watching it and uh they have incredible edges people have big edges over me they work in the aluminum industry i see aluminum industries coming down inventories coming down six straight months they see demand improving in america today you know you know it's hard to get an epa permit for a bowling alley never mind an aluminum smelter so you know when aluminum gets tight you just can't build seven aluminum smelters so when when you see this coming you can say wait a second i can make some money when an industry goes from terrible to mediocre the stock goes north when it goes from mediocre to good the stock goes north and it goes from good to terrific the stock goes north there's lots of ways to make money in your own industry you can be a supplier in the industry you can be a customer this thing this thing happens in the paper industry it happens in the steel industry it doesn't happen every week but if you're you're some field you'll see a term you'll see something in the publishing industry these things come along and it's just mind-boggling people throw it away a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much how you know how much further can you go down i remember when polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record but it ever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's kind of 135 to 100 it's not 95 what a buy within a year was 18.
and this is coming with no debt i mean as it comes it was just so overpriced it went down i did the same thing in my uh i think my first or second year fidelity kaiser industries had gone from 26 this year to 16. i said how much lower can it go it's 16. so i think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the new york on the american stock exchange of kaiser industries at 14.
i says you know it's gone from twenty six to sixteen how much lower can i go well at ten i called my mother and said mom you gotta uh look at this kaiser industries i mean how much lower can it go it's gone from twenty six to ten well it went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and uh now i unfortunately have rapidly i would probably be still caddying or being working at the stop and shot but i it happened fast i was able to this it was compressed and at three i figured out you know there's something very wrong here because kaiser industries owns forty percent of kaiser steel they own forty percent of kai's aluminum they own thirty two percent of kaiser cement they own kaiser broadcast and they own kaiser santa gravel guys are engineers they own jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now i learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people can approach that it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million and that point it was equal to buying one boeing 747 i said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million i was a little premature at 16 but uh i said everything's fine and eventually this work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares and guys meant they passed our chairs and cars aluminum they passed out their public shares and kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about fifty dollars a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it got into 10 what would you do when it went to nine what would you do when i went to eight what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do psychiatrists haven't worked so far i've never seen them running in the side the the psychological psychiatry fund i've never seen this listed for the uh with the sec to make it through as a mutual fund so they haven't seen the help uh i've tried prayer that hasn't worked the uh the uh so if you don't understand the company of this problem when they go down uh eventually they always come back uh this one is uh this one doesn't work either uh people think uh rca just about get back to its 1929 high when general electric took it over uh a lot of double knits never came back remember those beauties uh floppy disks western union uh the list goes on and on uh people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come back uh here's another one you hear all the time it's three dollars how much can i lose i've had people call me up saying i'm thinking of buying the stock at three how much can i lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you put uh if you and if you put twenty thousand dollars in a stock at fifty or your neighbor put twenty thousand at full at fifty into the stock and you put twenty thousand dollars in three and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything and people say it's three how much can i lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that this is the only this may be a reason to research a stock the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should uh buy it and in fact short sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at walmart they don't share at home depot they're not sure the great companies johnson johnson they short stocks down from 80 to seven they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at seven this company is going to go to zero they just haven't blown taps on this thing yet it's going to zero and they're selling short seven they're selling short at six at five at four at three at two at one and a quarter and you know sell something short you need a buyer somebody has to buy the damn thing and you wonder who's buying this thing is these people saying it's three how much lower can it go you know you can't get too attached to a stock you have to understand there's a company behind it you can't treat this like your grandchildren you know you have to deal with the stock and say i understand the company if it deteriorates at the fundamental slip you have to say goodbye to it you have one rule you want to remember is the stock does not know you own it this is a breakthrough so don't get you know you have to understand it and say they're doing well and as long as they keep doing well my best stocks have been my fifth sixth seventh year i own them not my fifth sixth seventh day so you have to understand that and uh stay with it and then uh i'll switch through to my uh my long shots avoid long shots i bought about 30 long shots of my life i've never broken even on one uh the ones that are really bad are we called whisper stalks and uh if arthur levitt was here it appeared i love appreciate these stories these are the times that somebody calls you and say hi peter how's carol how are the kids i'd like to talk to you about uh international blivet and uh and uh what they have in this company about that ernest can be very they're gonna be small three dollars one dollar share and they keep whispering and they say what are you talking about i don't understand it and these are now either they're so surrounded by people they're gonna run out by this stock because it's so exciting or they think the sec is listing in they'll get a shorter term you know they'll get six months in the in the camp rather than two years in the camp but whisper stocks don't work uh there's always something to worry about uh if you own stocks there's always something to worry about you can't get away from that uh what happens in the 50s people were worried about um the only reason we got out of the depression was world war ii we had another recession in the early 50s and said we're going to go right back into a depression people worried about a depression in the 50s and they're worried about nuclear war i mean back then uh you know the little warheads they had then they couldn't blow up mclean west virginia or plain virginia you know or charlestown now all these countries that end in stan there's nine of these stan countries that have come out of russia they all have enough warheads to blow the world up and no one worries about when i was a kid people were building fallout shelters and we just have this this civil defense drill remember this one in high school you get under your desk i never thought even then that was a particularly good thing to do you know if it blows some people in a hat would all get under our desk you know but in the 50s people wouldn't buy stocks except for the 80s the 50s was the best decade the century of the stock market and people wouldn't buy stocks in the 50s was the worried about nuclear war they're worried about recent depression then people marine oil went from 4 to 40 and it was going to go to 100 and we're gonna have a depression remember that one well about three years later the same experts now higher paid oil is now at 10.
they said it was going to four and we're going to have a depression and then the japanese remember the japanese we're gonna own the world remember that one and then we're gonna have a depression and then about two years later we're all worried about japan collapsing this is the most absurd thing i've ever heard it's a company with a 20 savings rate incredible workforce criminal productivity and people are saying we're gonna have a depression abuse their pants and collapse and they you know on their prayer list they load mother teresa and triple children and they're praying for japan at night you know it's unbelievable i mean the ldc debt remember the ldc debt remember that one all these countries all chase had lent their net worth to brazil chile peru and all these other countries and so out and all the other countries and ld said they're not going to pay it back and we're going to have a depression it always ends and we're going to have a depression or the great depression we have the great depression i never could understand that adjective in front of depression but the with the great depression or the big one the big ones coming but all these countries and now i understand these are called the then they were called less developed countries now we call them underdeveloped countries those are all wrong terms those are not politically correct you have to call these emerging countries you can't use less developed or underdeveloped because it's in fact the other day i heard the politically correct term for something that's overweight is laterally challenged that's the uh the uh that's a so they're always something to worry about and the key organ in your body in the stock market is your stomach it's not the brain if you can add eight and eight get reasonably close to 16 that's the only level of math you need to know you don't know to need the area under the curve remember that quadratic equation and an integral calculus and the area under the curve i mean whoever cared what was under the damn curve i mean yeah but you had to study this you don't need this in the stock market so all you have to know is you're going to see it's always going to be scary there's going to be always something to worry about and you just have to forget all about it cut it all out and own good companies our own turnarounds study them and you'll do well and that's all there is and i'm ready for questions you
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