저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준의 50bp 인하는 경기 약화를 드러내며 인플레이션 재가속 위험을 키운다는 주장. 탈세계화로 물가 압력 증가, 달러는 약세로 향하고 금·은은 상승 여력이 크다고 평가. 금은 2600달러 돌파 가능성, 은은 30달러대 저가 매수 기회로 제시. 실물 금속 보유를 강조하고 ETF 등 페이퍼 상품의 상대 위험을 지적.
다듬은 글
I do believe the economic data coming out in the weeks and months ahead is going to be negative. It's going to be negative on the economy, negative on manufacturing, and they're going to have some negative jobs numbers. The stronger inflation numbers may not show up for another few months. So as long as inflation isn't getting worse, the Fed can ignore the data, because the Fed is already confident. They're saying we know inflation is going to go back down to 2%.
Although Powell was careful not to say "mission accomplished." One of the reporters asked whether he would say they've won the inflation fight, and Powell said no. That somewhat contradicted what he said earlier about his confidence, and that's why he cut by 50 basis points, because he was so sure inflation was heading to 2%. But then he said, well, we're not sure, so we're not going to say mission accomplished. If you're not sure, why did you cut by 50? Nobody really asked that. But I think he was afraid to say mission accomplished, because it probably isn't accomplished. That might also have been a negative for the market. Maybe the markets were waiting for him to say "mission accomplished." From my perspective, he basically did that with the 50 basis point cut.
But remember, when inflation was below 2% and rising, Powell never raised interest rates to get ahead of it. He never said, look, we can see it's going up, so we're not going to wait until 2%, we're going to start hiking now before we get there. Powell actually said they would let it pass 2%. Even though the target is 2%, they wouldn't start hiking at 2%. They'd let it get above 2% before hiking, because they want to average out inflation. They have this inflation averaging now, so they're not going to rush. They're going to let inflation move above 2%.
On the way down, they have the complete opposite attitude. If the Fed were consistent, it would say we're not going to start cutting rates until inflation is below 2%. In fact, what Powell should be saying is: we were above 2%, way above it, and we need to average that down. We need inflation to run below 2%. And if the economy really is as strong as Powell claims, why not let inflation run below 2%? You've got a great economy and a super strong labor market. Why not have 1% inflation? Wouldn't that be a relief? Prices would still be higher, but it would be a relief.
But no. Powell knows the economy is so weak that he can't wait for inflation to actually get down to 2%, or heaven forbid, go below 2%. He needs to start cutting now. He's going to roll the dice and hope inflation keeps coming down. But why should it? He's throwing gasoline on the fire. Why should the fire go out when he's now stoking it?
Peter Schiff's insights on the current economic landscape paint a clear picture of how deeply interest rates, inflation, and the value of precious metals like gold and silver have become intertwined in today's financial system. The idea that inflation is not just a temporary challenge but a systemic flaw caused by years of poor monetary policy is at the heart of his argument. Let's dive deeper into his key points and explore why gold and silver remain central to any strategy designed to preserve wealth in an increasingly unstable economy.
The Federal Reserve's approach to controlling inflation through interest rate manipulation is, according to Schiff, fundamentally flawed. Over the past two decades the Fed has kept interest rates at historic lows, creating what Schiff describes as an illusion of prosperity. Low interest rates have driven massive borrowing, not just by individuals and businesses but by the government itself, leading to an unsustainable level of debt. This cheap money policy has inflated asset bubbles in real estate, stocks, and bonds, giving the impression that the economy is stronger than it actually is.
However, when inflation began to rise, the Fed found itself in a bind. Raising interest rates to control inflation would crash the asset bubbles it had spent years inflating, while continuing to keep rates low would risk letting inflation spiral out of control. Schiff argues that the Fed has chosen the latter option by cutting interest rates preemptively, despite inflation still being well above its 2% target. This signals weakness, not strength, in the US economy, as the Fed is essentially betting that inflation will come down on its own rather than taking the hard steps necessary to control it.
But inflation doesn't just disappear. In fact, cutting rates while inflation is still high is like pouring gasoline on a fire: the more the Fed cuts, the more likely it is that inflation will accelerate. This is particularly concerning in the context of the current deglobalization trend, which is reversing the deflationary forces that have kept inflation in check for so long. As companies bring manufacturing back to the US, the cost of goods and services will rise, pushing inflation higher. This will put further pressure on the Fed to either raise rates and risk a recession, or let inflation run wild. In an environment where inflation is not just a short-term problem but a long-term systemic issue, gold and silver are more important than ever.
Both metals have historically been seen as safe havens during times of economic uncertainty, and Schiff argues that we are now entering one of those periods, with inflation set to rise and the Fed's ability to control it in question. Gold and silver offer protection against the erosion of purchasing power.
One of the most compelling aspects of gold is its intrinsic value. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed at will by central banks, gold is finite. This makes it a natural hedge against inflation, as its value tends to rise when the value of paper money falls. As Schiff points out, gold has already rallied to near record highs and is likely to break through the $2,600 mark in the near future as inflation continues to accelerate.
Silver, too, is positioned for significant gains. While gold is often seen as the primary store of value, silver has a unique dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial metal. Silver is used in a wide range of industrial applications, including electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles. As demand for these products continues to grow, the supply of silver will become increasingly constrained, driving up prices. In fact, silver is still trading below $31 per ounce, which makes it a bargain compared to its long-term potential. Schiff believes both metals are currently undervalued, particularly in relation to the US dollar. As the dollar weakens, the price of gold and silver will rise in response, reflecting the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies.
The markets initially rallied. The stock market rallied, and gold rallied as soon as the announcement of the 50 basis point cut came out, then rallied again. It didn't take out $2,600, but it did make a new all-time record high, getting above $2,595. The gold stocks had a big rally initially, so the GDX and GDXJ both hit new 52-week highs earlier. But then Powell started to speak, and some of what he said was interpreted as hawkish. He talked about how strong the economy is. But what did they expect? He's not going to acknowledge that the economy is weak.
When asked specifically about the balance of risks, and whether they had tilted toward employment over inflation, Powell said no. He said it's basically neutral, that the Fed is equally worried about inflation and employment. That's not true. Of course it's more worried about unemployment. That's why it's cutting. The idea that they're tight is nonsense. They're still loose, and they're cutting because they need to be looser for a lot of reasons, employment being one of them.
When Powell said that, I think it spooked the markets. He also said not to expect that just because they cut 50 basis points this time, they'll cut 50 next time, and they may not cut at all next time. They're still playing it meeting by meeting, data dependent. Even though everyone who fills out the dot plots is projecting more cuts, Powell didn't just come out and say, yes, we're cutting again, we're cutting next meeting and the one after that. He claimed they're still data dependent, so you never know: if we get some bad inflation prints, we may not cut, or we may even hike. He left the door open, and I think that took away some of what he had given. That's one of the reasons you saw reversals in the markets, including the fact that it's "buy the rumor, sell the fact," so traders took profits. The market sold off and went negative. It wasn't a collapse, but it lost the gains. Gold reversed and closed negative on the day, maybe about $10 to $12 down from its highs, which were up around $25. The gold stocks, which were up 3 to 4% at their highs, ended down about 1%. So there was a lot of profit-taking after the press conference.
But I think that's just a one-day event. What happened was extremely bullish for gold, and I think the big move is going to be higher. I think the next rally will take out $2,600. The same goes for the dollar. The dollar made a new low for the year against the yen, almost taking out 140, and we did take out 84 cents against the Swiss franc. We closed back above it, but that was a new 13-year low for the dollar against the Swiss franc today. So the dollar is slowly starting to break down, and the pace of that breakdown will pick up now that the cat is out of the bag. We've had this 50 basis point rate cut, and more rate cuts are coming. So the dollar is going to go down and gold is going to go up. This late-day selloff is another opportunity. If you didn't buy more gold before the Fed cut 50 basis points, you can still buy it tonight. You can still buy silver. Silver is still above $30. It's below $31, though it had gotten above there, but silver is a good buy right now.
Schiff brings up an essential point about the cyclical nature of inflation and deflation. The Federal Reserve's ultimate tools for controlling inflation, interest rates and monetary policy, are meant to combat these forces. However, over the past few decades the Fed has driven interest rates to historic lows, even keeping them near zero for extended periods. Low interest rates have encouraged borrowing and spending, stimulating growth, but they have also created massive bubbles in various asset classes, particularly real estate and stocks. As Schiff describes it, lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy is akin to throwing gasoline on a fire. When you cut rates, you make borrowing cheaper, encouraging people to take on more debt. But what happens when inflation rises faster than the economy grows? That sets the stage for stagflation, where inflation persists while the economy stagnates or contracts. Schiff warns that the Fed's actions, particularly its recent 50 basis point cut, are creating the perfect conditions for this to happen.
Schiff also makes an interesting observation about how globalization and technological advancements have masked inflationary pressures for decades. Cheap labor from countries like China and advances in technology have allowed prices to stay relatively stable even as central banks flooded the markets with liquidity. But now, with the push for deglobalization and the return of manufacturing to domestic shores, inflationary pressures are starting to build again. Rebuilding supply chains, paying higher wages, and dealing with tariffs and trade wars are inflationary forces that can no longer be ignored. Gold and silver have always been seen as the ultimate hedges against inflation and economic uncertainty. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed endlessly, gold and silver are finite resources. Schiff's analysis aligns with the view that as inflation heats up, gold will serve as a barometer for the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies like the US dollar.
In his discussion, Schiff notes that gold rallied after the Fed's announcement of the 50 basis point cut. Gold surged above $2,595. Although it didn't break through the $2,600 level, the market reaction signals that gold is poised for further gains. Gold is not just a store of value; it is a reflection of the market's lack of confidence in central banks and fiat currencies. Gold wasn't the only beneficiary, though. Silver also rose and stayed above $30 per ounce. Schiff believes silver remains an excellent buy, especially as its industrial applications continue to grow, from solar panels to electric vehicles and other green technologies. Demand for silver will only increase in the coming years. This positions silver as both an industrial metal and a monetary metal, which makes it an attractive investment in today's environment.
One of Schiff's key themes is the slow decline of the US dollar. While the dollar has remained the world's reserve currency for decades, the cracks are starting to show. Countries like China, Russia, and other emerging markets are beginning to challenge the dollar's dominance by creating alternative payment systems, buying up gold reserves, and reducing their dependence on US financial systems like SWIFT. The dollarization trend is gaining momentum, and the recent strength in gold reflects this global shift. Schiff notes that the dollar made a new low against the yen and the Swiss franc, both traditionally seen as safe-haven currencies. This decline against other strong currencies signals that international investors are losing confidence in the US financial system. Schiff argues that gold and silver will continue to rise in value as investors look for alternatives to store their wealth. He expects the next big move in gold to break through $2,600, and he expects the dollar's decline to accelerate in the coming months. With central banks around the world continuing to cut rates and inject liquidity into their economies, the global currency markets are primed for a shakeup. Schiff believes the US dollar will bear the brunt of this adjustment, and as confidence in the dollar wanes, gold and silver will soar to new heights.
One of Schiff's mantras is the importance of holding physical metals, particularly gold and silver. Unlike paper contracts or ETFs, physical gold and silver have no counterparty risk. As he often says, if you don't hold it, you don't own it. The idea is simple: fiat currencies can be manipulated, but gold and silver are tangible assets that retain value regardless of what happens to the economy or the financial system. Schiff also highlights that ETFs and other financial products that claim to be backed by physical metals are not the same as holding the actual metal. In a crisis, these paper products could be rendered worthless if their issuers go bankrupt or refuse to honor their contracts. In contrast, physical gold and silver are universally recognized and accepted forms of money.
For those who might not fully grasp why inflation is such a big deal, Schiff's analysis offers some eye-opening points. Inflation doesn't just erode the value of your savings; it also distorts the entire economic system. When inflation is high, the cost of goods and services rises, but wages and incomes don't always keep pace. This squeezes consumers, who find themselves paying more for everyday items like food, energy, and healthcare while their real incomes decline. What's worse, inflation disproportionately affects the middle and lower classes, who spend a larger share of their income on basic necessities. The wealthy can often hedge against inflation by investing in assets like real estate, stocks, and of course precious metals. For the average person, inflation is a tax on their standard of living. Schiff emphasizes that by investing in gold and silver, individuals can protect themselves from this hidden tax.
As Schiff's analysis reveals, the economic data in the coming months will likely paint a picture of continued weakness, and central banks will respond by printing more money and cutting interest rates further. While this may provide short-term relief for the stock market and other asset bubbles, the long-term consequences are clear: inflation will rise, the dollar will weaken, and gold and silver will continue their upward march. For investors, the key takeaway is simple: don't wait. The window of opportunity to buy gold and silver at relatively low prices is closing. Whether you're looking to preserve your wealth, hedge against inflation, or simply diversify your portfolio, now is the time to act. As Peter Schiff would say, when the next crisis hits, you don't want to be holding paper promises. You want to be holding real money.
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