원문 보기
what if traders what up investors can't hear from dyslexic investor and we're looking at another enormous hedge fund or trading firm buying a very far out not far out maybe 48 days away in August 21st they're buying another straddle this is again where you buy the put and call at the same strike price and you're hoping for a dramatic a ploy push lower and they're buying the 390 if you want to go ahead and skip ahead we'll break down the trade I'll put a timestamp there we're gonna do a quick overview of Nvidia stock and then we'll break down the trade and then roll awesome announcements all right guys all right so let's go ahead and jump into Nvidia Nvidia literally hit an all-time high on Thursday at nearly 390 this is where again this position was taken forth with the look in the training tab below this thing has to spend a monster even if with the the pandemic and the virus really kind of took it down the 280 really came in for really strong support here not completely but it really was hovering around that area made a v-shaped bottom and then has been climbing up between the 21 as really the support on the way up really misses an opportunity here when I kind of dip back here below like the 356 level here for a potential push higher this thing has just been a true market darling in the sense of everything you can see it's been a leader in technology it's a growth stock it's in the chip stuff it's in the future it's just a gross stock and it's just and it pays a dividend like this thing is really an outperforming company that being said we also see a squeeze sitting up here this is again a potential propulsion for it to kick higher or lower the squeeze this indicates there's a very tight amount of vom coming in so when the Bollinger Bands and Keltner channels get tight up this is a potential springboard to go in higher prices or lower but with the indications of RSI being well above 60 and looking for the volume unless that are to continue to climb to the first green line which is around 40 ish this is a really strong candidate for potential higher prices so looking at where we could be going I kind of wanted to do in old Fibonacci retracement from the previous high of this year previous cycle again it's relative to what we're talking about with the last downswing and we're gonna look for the one to 72 extension and that really kind of hit that fairly fast after it's quarter then Katherine excited ways a little bit and then took a little bit to continue going higher so the next meaningful target they're going to be looking at is around $400 so that's not honestly too far off we're currently at we're only talking 15 ish bucks 16 bucks if you want to be politically correct it's gonna be that's really very much doable again if they come out again no crystal ball here they come out and say you know what we actually don't have a product and it did so it just supposed to dog food and we put dog foods in our graphics cards or whatever I think I don't know I always make these stories up of what could happen and get ready for anything to happen in the market without a doubt but if you're looking at history and if you're looking at the charts the 21 and 34 has been a very strong support on the way up can we continue going up yes Doc's can go up for quite some time the RSI has not really peaked yet as you can see here it really peaked here with our site breaking above 80 and then kind of came back down to the 21 so kind of guessing if you're not in it yet you kind of have to be somewhat patient I don't see an earnings report on the horizon so potentially that next earnings report can really just joel stood up potentially getting well above that $4 price target and then kind of slowly coming back to the 21:34 for potential buying opportunity in the meantime if you're not in it for myself like I'm not in a machine AMD sadface this has been a potential really market leader candidate and I just been performing extremely well and basically having so many different categories that it can propel the stock higher and higher that being said let's go ahead and jump into the trade that we saw on Thursday again we're talking about that straddle which was about 5,000 contracts which is it was by thousands of contracts at the 390 call and put you can kind of see that highlighted here and then you can also see someone else did a similar trade in the afternoon as well they did the same I guess this must be around probably their earnings especially in August the 400 put in call and but they only did 1500 contracts so basically that is bought like the Delta 50/50 ish for again potentially trying to get a breakout higher or lower so let's go ahead and I'm going to swing over the season the trade tab for tasty works is what I use for trading options he down here you can see that the overall breakdown we have 5,000 contracts for August 21st again 48 days away the 390 put a call we're buying both of them we're looking for the overall max loss or the cost of the trade is around 25 point five million dollars the probability of profit is about 45 bucks again so we need to see happen on this little demonstration up here it's basically the price needs to continue going higher or lower if it just trades in between the range of 340 and 440 it's not going to be very lucrative for this option because it's just gonna get very much it's gonna become worthless towards the expiration and the faster it moves up or down the more money it's gonna make basically it's an it's a it can make an infinite amount of money that being said because you can see here on the max profit is the infinite symbol where you can see if it the stocking can go literally to the moon whatever that number could be seeing that literally the the stock can go to the moon because you see that the max profit is the infinite symbol so again if it breaks for 40 it continues going to the moon I can scroll all the way out it can just kind of demonstrate basically if it closes at expiration forty-eight days from now the P&L is around 78 can they make 80 thousand eighty million dollars if it closes what price would this be that's around I can't tell around 600 can that happen I don't know but then also in the same inverse if it literally goes to 40 they can make a hundred fifty million dollars again these are just extreme cases just to kind of help you understand on what this overall straddle means most likely they're looking for it potential market move up or down drastically within the fund even though it can continue to go higher or lower it really needs to break out of these really key levels so we're gonna go look at that on the chart so 440 and 340 so we can go back to this well so that's quite a range that we're looking at here again we're talking this is not extremely far out but it's so we could look here on the options 48 days out and we are looking plus or minus $54 where we're at so 50 or $54 we're currently at what basically put it in the range of one of these price targets so again the fundus is saying hey we don't know if it's gonna go up or down but we want to protect ourself so if it continues going up fantastic but if it comes crashing down we also have protection and it's kind of interesting because they have that protection right at the 50-day simple moving average as well again everything is kind of saying that this is going to go higher but you just never know in the market nothing is a hundred percent for sure they want to get that protection down there that's why this overall trade is costing a substantial amount because they just bought the straight calls yes it would be literally almost half the cost but if the stock comes crashing down their whole investment could be nixed so they're kind of buying the insurance of these puts to kind of protect themselves on the way down so there's this betting either award that it continues going higher and it goes higher substantially or if it doesn't is just gonna come down with substantially because we have had a crazy amount of volume in the market looking for that so again $50 it was at $54 $54 it 54 it's called 55 but the potential market move so the kernel percentile plus or minus is just implying that it's the 68% I'll move of this particular option so it can move again it can move substantially higher or lower because again with anything in the market it has no plan it just continued and going up or going lower so just be mindful that those options are just kind of those numbers are kind of for guidelines the market makers are just putting those out there's as potential extreme moves to near the one standard deviation of this stock potentially looking for those prices again doesn't have earnings on horizon I wonder does it have it here usually they have it on here looks like yeah it looks like this coming August 20th is their earnings so this is again a direct play on to that so yeah we'll see what happens guys thank you so much for watching i hopefully you learn something if you have please hit that like and subscribe button really do appreciate it although we have a fantastic discord chat that you can come check out we have that down below completely free join we talk about stocks share trading ideas share different news topics all kinds of fun things we also have a patreon page if you want to help support the channel directly and I kind of share some more detailed stuff there gardening some watch lists and some other charting ideas and then on top of that we have a live stream coming up on Sunday at I think I did at 9 o'clock this time I'm 9 p.m.
just double check I have it pretty much already booked so go ahead and it would love for you to come join that where we usually just talk about a smorgasbord of different charts in stocks and look at the what could potentially be some new trading ideas and new investing ideas and just overall some great stuff again guys thank you so much for watching this is Ken from you
댓글 0