저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 브렌트 존슨의 '달러 밀크셰이크' 이론(달러인덱스 130 돌파)을 반박하며, 달러 강세는 제한적일 것이라고 본다. 존슨 이론의 핵심은 전 세계 달러 부채 상환을 위해 차입자들이 달러를 사야 하므로 달러 수요가 폭증한다는 것이다. 쉬프는 이를 차입자 관점만 본 편향된 논리라고 지적한다. 대주(채권자) 관점에서는 원리금을 받은 뒤 달러를 현지통화로 바꿔 매도하는 경우가 많아 달러 공급이 계속 보충된다는 것이 쉬프의 주장이다. 미국 무역적자는 연간 약 5천억 달러 규모로 해외에 달러가 쌓이는 구조이며, 이는 장기적으로 달러에 하락 압력을 준다. 해외 투자자가 미국 주식·채권을 사며 달러 수요를 만들 수 있지만, 미국 자산 밸류에이션이 비싸 이 수요는 장기적으로 믿기 어렵다는 입장이다. 재정적자 역시 달러 공급을 늘린다. 연방정부 지출의 약 55센트가 연준의 신규 발행 자금으로 조달된다는 언급이 나오며, 이는 장기적으로 달러 가치 하락 요인이다. 2020년 3월 코로나 충격 때 달러인덱스는 약 103까지 올랐으나 2015·2017년 고점을 돌파하지 못했고, 이는 달러가 생각만큼 강하지 않다는 근거로 제시된다. 쉬프는 달러 강세가 주식·원자재 폭락을 부르기 때문에 연준이 달러 상승을 억제할 것이라고 본다. 실제로 3월 이후 연준의 달러 공급으로 달러는 하락 추세다. 따라서 존슨이 말하는 것처럼 달러인덱스가 130까지 오를 가능성은 매우 낮다는 것이 결론이다. 존슨은 달러 강세를 전망하는 입장으로 소개되며, 쉬프는 달러 약세·연준 개입을 전제로 한 하락 쪽 논리를 펼친다.
다듬은 글
brand Johnson who runs santiago capital out of san francisco invented a theory that he calls the dollar milkshake theory it's basically about how the US dollar is going to go up a lot over time against other currencies Brent Johnson believes that the dollar index the DXY is going to go above 130 at some point in the near future the dollar milkshake Theory is gaining traction among investors very quickly however recently Peter Schiff chief economist of Euro Pacific Capital refuted this theory on one of his podcasts and pointed out why the scenario that Brent Johnson and many other dollar balls are betting on will likely not happen let's hear from Peter Schiff but he articulates his own theory but I think he's missing some big flaws in that theory but when he talks about hey there's all this dollar-denominated debt in the world right and what if the borrower's you know need those dollars or they do need the dollars right they need the dollars to make interest payments and then they need the dollars to pay off the principal when the loan is due and somehow he thinks that this means there's this huge demand out there for dollars and in fact it could be the equivalent of a global short squeeze as everybody who owes dollars is rushing to get those dollars but the problem is when you look at it from one side right the borrower you forget about looking at it from the lenders perspective right the person who has loaned out dollars and is expecting to get repaid right because not everybody who is gonna get repaid dollars wants those dollars a lot of people sell the dollars as soon as they get them Brent Johnson believes that there is a huge demand for US dollar globally because a lot of entities outside the US have borrowed money in dollars and now they need to accumulate dollars in order to service the debt however Peter points out that Brent's logic is flawed because he is not looking at the full picture he is only looking at the issue from the borrower side and not from the lender side let's go back to Peter for more clarification on this right the person who has loaned out dollars and is expecting to get repaid right because not everybody who is gonna get repaid dollars wants those dollars a lot of people sell the dollars as soon as they get them right what if I am a guy and I live in Thailand and I loan money to a business in Indonesia but we don't want to make the loans in the baht or the rupee so we agree to do the loans in the US dollar right to have a stable currency that we both trust right so the guy in Indonesia owes the guy in Thailand dollars but when the loan is repaid or when the interest is repaid does the guy in Thailand does he keep the dollars no he turns around and sells them most likely as soon as he gets them I mean if he's getting his interest payments and then he needs them to pay his rent or to pay other local bills he doesn't pay those bills in dollars even though the bond is denominated in dollars when he gets the dollars he turns them into his local currency so even though you have the Indonesian company having to buy dollars to repay the loan as soon as the loan is repaid the dollars are turn around and sold so you get plenty of people selling dollars because of dollar loans as Biden so Peter is saying that many lenders issue debt in dollars for one reason or another but once they get paid back they do not hold on to these dollars they just sell them in the market for the local currency thus the supply of dollars on the market is constantly being replenished to meet the demand of course you know they have to overlook the trade deaths right the trade deficit automatically means that there's an extra half a trillion dollars on the global market every year right that nobody needs right because that's the deficit we buy goods and then we pay for them by exporting paper I mean we we pay for some of the goods with our own goods we export goods and services but there's a big gap and the differences over half a trillion dollars a year so now the world's got half a trillion dollars a year that it's not using to buy goods and services in America so what is it gonna do it's either gonna sell those dollars on the market and and or it can invest those dollars in US financial asset Peter points out a very important issue here that is being overlooked by many dollar balls and that is the fact that the US trade deficit is constantly providing an increasing supply of dollars on the market year after year and in the long term this will put downward pressure on the dollar but then guys like Brent Johnson might say that this downward pressure is actually being counteracted by the demand for dollars from foreign investors who seek to invest in US stocks and bonds here's Peters response to that people receiving those dollar payments are likely to turn around and sell them to get other currencies now what are the reasons that they may not sell them is maybe they want to invest them maybe they want to take the dollars that they earned and you know make another dollar denominated loan or maybe they want to take those dollars and buy US stocks or US bonds or something like that right so maybe they'll stay in the dollar but what if they don't want to do that what if when the loan is repaid they decide they don't want to make another dollar loan or they don't want to buy a US stock maybe they want to buy a local stock which to them would be a foreign stock to us maybe they think the US stock market is too expensive maybe they think the US bond market is too expensive which they are right maybe US financial assets are gonna lose their appeal and so a lot of dollars a time in a debt as it matures the lender is now going to be dumping those dollars to get a different currency so that he can invest in assets in another country that have better valuations see I think that is the key that all the dollar bowls are missing is this gonna be this massive glut of dollars with no demand Peters saying that US assets are currently trading at very rich valuations when compared to foreign assets and if US stocks and bonds keep rising at some point foreign investors will prefer to invest in assets outside the US because they make more sense from a risk/reward perspective thus foreign investors demand for US dollar cannot be relied upon in the long run to counteract the increase in the supply of dollar meanwhile the supply of dollars is going to increase dramatically not just from our trade deficits but from our budget deficits I already mentioned on his podcast but right now about 55 cents out of every dollar the federal government is spending is being printed by the Federal Reserve most of the government is being financed with newly printed money so the supply of dollars is growing dramatically well what does that mean about price price has to come down this is basic supply demand it doesn't matter about all these dollar denominated loans so Peter does not forget to mention that the Federal Reserve is constantly increasing the supply of dollars through money printing to finance the budget deficit and over the long run this will devalue the dollar and he's also focusing on all the dollar debt right especially when we just had this big collapse with a big recession related to kovat the idea was oh now a lot of these companies around the world in the emerging markets that have borrowed in dollars they're not going to be able to service their debts they're not going to repay their debts because their revenues are down it's a recession and so now there's gonna be a mad scramble for dollars and you're gonna have this surge in the dollar except it really didn't happen I mean yes the dollar went up in the middle of all the chaos in March of 2020 the dollar did rally all the way up to just under 103 that's it that is the highest the dollar index could go as stocks were imploding all over the world and we were engulfed in a pandemic right the biggest panic I've ever seen right the quickest and sharpest decline in global equity prices and all the dollar index could do was rise to 102.9 it did not even get back to its 2017 peak it didn't even get as high as its 2015 peak so you had this double top in the dollar with the highs at 2015 and 2017 and despite all the pandemonium all the panic this strong dollar could not even take out that resistance that tells you that the dollar is not nearly as strong as people think it is because if it couldn't take out those Peaks given all that was happening in March why would it do it later okay something that needs to be mentioned here is that when the US dollar ride is too high it makes every other asset go down so the US stock market crashes global stock markets crash commodity prices crash so it causes a lot of problems and the Federal Reserve knows this and there is no way that they will allow it to happen the Fed can actually control the level of the US dollar to a large extent we saw that in the middle of March back then when the dollar started to rally and stocks bonds and commodities crashed all over the world the Fed came to the rescue and started flooding the world with dollars and successfully prevented the dollar from going higher the dollar index peaked back then at a hundred and three and it's been declining ever since so with the Fed more determined than ever to support the stock market it's very unlikely that the dollar will be allowed to rally as high as friend Johnson thinks
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