저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 경쟁 심화(딥시크 등)는 사용자에겐 이득이며 빅테크 수익성은 유지될 것. 연준은 당분간 금리 인하 없이 동결 전망, 경기는 양호하고 제조업도 회복세. 엔비디아 등 급락은 과열 조정 성격이 있으나 데이터센터·에너지 수요는 지속되고 이익 기반 상승 예상. 나스닥·S&P500은 사상 최고치 근처라 현재 조정은 크지 않음.
다듬은 글
the FED is set to kick off a two-day policy meeting today this comes as the market faces a tech stock selloff that was sparked by deep seas advancements in AI or supposed advancements we're still looking into all of this on top of this we are expecting earnings this week from Tech Giants and there are a lot of moving pieces to all of this so let's bring in Ed yardeni yarden research president and Ed you are really good at taking a lot of moving pieces and trying to figure out how to make sense of them so good luck here's the mess from this week what do you do well I think you just stay put in the stock market I I think the fed's going to stay put I don't think the fed's going to be lowering interest rates for a while the econom is doing great uh we're seeing evidence that even the manufacturing sector which has been in a what I call a rolling recession is now in a rolling recovery so that's looking pretty good uh consumers are spending and back to the stock market U I think what uh happened uh what is happening in the AI Market means that competition is increasing and competition is a good thing for users of artificial intelligence which means that while some maybe just one of The Magnificent Seven uh may have some challenges here the reality is the S&P 493 are going to be beneficiaries of very powerful and and cheap and readily available AI technology I I think by the way the some of the Magnificent s like Microsoft uh Amazon Google they're all going to incorporate AI into their Technologies into their products already they're they they are doing that and that just uh means that there'll be an upgrade cycle to a lot of the software and they'll be able to charge a little bit more and so I'm not uh I'm not crying uh I'm not crying for them I think they'll do fine yeah and I think the the question becomes if if if this is a good thing from the broader perspective um does it validate the pullback you've seen in the one that really has had the magga 7s that that has seemed like it has a problem just in the last 24 hours that's Nvidia um that's a really big pullback and I guess you could argue that the market was really valuing things on this perspective of this was going to be a strangle hold and nobody else was going to be able to make any progress with it yeah or do you look at it and say there's this is going to increase demand for their chips too broader applications yeah well that's that's the thing that always kind of kills these uh speculative bubbles with focus on uh Monopoly pricing Monopoly marketing the the reality is nothing is no industry is more competitive than technology uh these companies literally eat their young what I mean by that is they create something new and novel and have a very high profit margin and they they themselves start working on the Next Generation knowing that they're going to obsolete what they just put out because if they don't do it somebody else will do it and we've just seen an amazing example of that that uh here they thought they were going to have to spend tens of billions of dollars and that would give him a monopoly um position in the AI market and some startup in uh China came up with the Deep seek and uh whether it's uh can deliver everything that that seems to be promised the reality is it does increase competition and even Nvidia very graciously said hey this is pretty cool uh and and by the way you're still going to need a lot of our chips maybe you don't need the highend chips with a high mark margins maybe you can do it all with low end chips with low margins that's not a bad thing for for the for the economy certainly maybe that increased competition will mean that you are still going to see a massive amount of capex spending because you can't afford to fall behind when it looks like it is such a hot foot race on this um but it could change where some of that money is spent and I guess I I still go back to the same question the big sell offs that we saw not just with Nvidia but with broadcom with a bunch of the energy companies that were down by more than 20% whether it's constellation or G Vern NOA are those buying opportunities to you when you see this or were those stocks that were I think as you said it this bubble you know you know speculative bubble type of territory how do how do you measure it well some of the some of the Monopoly valuation multiple has been kind of rated right has scum down some but I think uh you know these are still amazing companies that are going to continue to have quite a bit of demand for the their product if anything this makes AI more accessible means it'll Pro proliferate faster which and we're still going to need the data centers we're still going to need the energy so I don't think the story fundamentally changes it just becomes more competitive maybe there's some pressure on invidious margins but that's been adjusted for uh basically in one day and I think from here on these stocks and the overall Market will be driven by earnings and uh I think more and more of those earnings are going to be associated with a rising profit margin thanks to Ai and other Technologies AI is not the only game in town There's Automation and Robotics and by the way all these Technologies interact so look back here I I think we're in a digital Revolution I think we've been there since the IBM Mainframe in the 1950s and the digital Revolution just continues to to roll on here we are processing more and more data more and more uh faster and faster and cheaper and cheaper and that's what it's all about yeah and I and I think that's a valid reflection and way of looking at things we we saw a big selloff yesterday in the NASDAQ but it was only the worst day we've had since December 18th so this is not put it in perspective yeah and and by the way we're still only four and a half perc or so off from the all times High alltime highs for the NASDAQ less than 2% for the S&P um so you're talking about really relatively High stock prices across the board and these are not even a not even a correction really not even a correction correct
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