Inflation is much lower than the Fed thinks, says Wharton Professor of Finance Jeremy Siegel

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연준이 실제보다 인플레이션을 높게 보고 있으며, 주거비 지표를 실제 주택·임대가격 기준으로 보면 근원 인플레이션은 음(-)이라는 주장. 근거: 주거(shelter) 부문 상승률이 0.8%로 근원 CPI를 끌어올렸으나, 실제 지표로 보면 근원 인플레이션은 사실상 0 이하이고 연준이 쓰는 지표가 지연되어 있다고 설명. 통화정책 전망: 12월 FOMC에서 0.5%p 대신 0.25%p 인상이나 인상 중단도 가능하다고 봄. 다만 향후 주거지표(12월 기준 0.7~0.8%)가 여전히 높아 연준이 완전히 멈추기는 어렵다는 조건 제시. 고용지표(실업수당 청구)가 악화되면 인상폭 축소 압력이 커질 수 있음. 주식 전망: 인플레이션 피크는 지났고 연준이 생각보다 덜 높게 올려도 된다는 입장이라 연말 랠리 가능성이 있다고 봄. 나스닥은 내년 실적 기준 23~24배로 여전히 매력적이라는 취지로 기술주 반등 여지를 언급. 리스크: 실업률 상승 등 고용 약화 시 긴축 장기화 우려, 연준 발언(Powell의 매파적 톤)이 변할 가능성에 대한 불확실성 존재. 과거 인플레 전망이 맞았다는 점을 강조하며 자신의 예측 일관성을 어필.

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01. Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School professor your reaction to this print on the CPI and the subsequent move in stocks well Scott this is what we've been talking about I think for the last three months uh that in inflation is much lower than the FED thinks in fact let me give you an interesting statistic and follows up on what Josh was saying and what I have been saying for months actually more in the year if you put the actual home and rental price index in not the one the FED uses which is very lag the actual one in today's index you get Negative core inflation negative core inflation I mean take a look at what core inflation on the shelter part was plus point eight percent I mean that's that's ridiculous it's nowhere near no way no way I mean and I mean that's no need to by the way that's the only reason why core was positive uh not only is it zero it's actually negative so if you put a negative number in we we're we're in negative inflation mode If the Fed uses the right statistics not the faulty statistics uh that they've been using um so you know I mean you're saying when should they when should they pivot yesterday I mean yeah they'll probably go now 50 and stop they don't really need to even do that because everything is in the down mode um you know yeah you know I told you last June I thought the danger was the Fed was getting too tight right and uh now you know I think the data is showing yeah maybe that's true so if you had your way what what would they do next month in the December meeting yeah you know well there's a lot of data coming through and we have another month of data to come through but if the trends continue I I would stick with where we were are now I don't think they will are they going to go to 50 and announce the pause and that's what happened today I mean you know the data today sort of confirmed that negative the day if the data continues to go the way it's going see no reason why it isn't but it's going to be to go 50 and announce a real poor what happens and that's why we have a thousand Point rally today by the way we get a CPI print the day before the FED meeting in December if that continues the trend of what we see today does that potentially influence a 25 instead of a 50.

02. it could be I mean it could be in terms of and what other real data comes then we had a slight uptick in in job I was uh uh jobless claims if that starts going up if we see weakness in the November employment report that we're not expecting um that combined with another good CPI that might put pressure on them even going less uh in in their December meeting but don't forget the housing component in December will still be plus 0.7 plus 0.8 which is 40 percent of that index and it'll continue to push up as the housing market goes down um and that's the nature of the statistics that they're using Professor so what does this mean for stocks obviously you know massive move today uh relief in many respects but what happens from here do we have the opportunity now for a significant end of year rally at minimum yeah yeah I think we do because I think of more people that that think about the fact that you you know that inflation is is basically over and you know something I said I said two months ago inflation is basically over and the FED doesn't have to get anywhere near as high I mean I was shocked at uh you know Powell's last news conference oh we're going to be I feel we have to be more hawkish than we were last September when all the data was pointing down he's going to change his tune I think when he you know when they get to the you know the real world data in their December meeting but I think this does make for a good year in rally I don't think I'm not necessarily true and then the question you asked Josh about does this reignite Tech I mean you know yeah I think the nasdaq's still selling for 23 24 times next year's earnings