저자: ChetanSharma · 외국인
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피터 린치의 'One Up on Wall Street' 독서 노트 시리즈 영상. 투자자는 신념·기대수익·기간·하락 대응 등 명확한 기준이 있어야 하며, 주식 선택은 유전이 아니라 경험과 학습으로 익힌다고 설명. 린치의 성장 배경(캐디 경험, 골프장 정보망), 피델리티 입사, 펀드 운용 일화를 소개. 이익은 과거 상승이 아닌 실제 성장과 가치에서 나온다는 취지로 정리. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 예측 발언 없음.
다듬은 글
Hello friends, good morning. Let's continue the series we've started of reading Books One on Wall Street. Till now we have completed Introduction to Millennium Edition Prologue and Introduction to Advantage of the Money up to 31 pages and today we will understand Part One Preparing to Invest and in it we will look at the chapter The Making of Stock Pickers.
That's all I'll keep in this video. So basically, I am sharing with you the running notes of the reading that we made. So we come to this part in which Peter Lane explains his philosophy of preparing to invest, that is, how to prepare yourself as an investor. So here it is being said that if you take a decision in the market then you will have to decide how much you trust the corporate culture, be it America in their contact or here in India, then what are you expecting to get out of the investment, will you make long term or short term, if suppose there is a sudden severe drop in the price then how will you react, so there needs to be a lot of clarity in all these things, only then you can become an investor and make money, otherwise you can become a victim of the market, so in that sense, inspired by Raja Ravish Kumar of TVF, I have made a little couplet that my friend has come to make a fortune in the stock market.
Without knowledge of investment, neither the stock market nor the company can save or prepare the investor. When there is no clarity, one becomes a victim of the market. Hello, I am Raja Lynch Kumar. So laughing is a different matter. But this is what is important. So whatever I said here is written below.
So if there is no clarity on these issues then you may become a victim of the market. So this was an introduction to how to prepare for the stock market. Regarding how one becomes a stock picker, Peter Lynch has explained in great detail how he became one and his personal journey. So we see that he is saying that there is no hereditary formula for stock picking.
Whenever there is no one who is born from the mother's womb or he curses the lineage saying that there are no qualities in our lineage, then brother, an investor is not born from the womb. If you think like this, then you will be proved wrong because history proves him wrong. Peter Lynch says that neither my father ever looked at the share price of General Motors nor did my mother ever ask about dividends, so my stars were falling on every occasion on the test day of investing, what I mean to say is that when I was born or when I got a job or whatever is my important milestone in my life, suppose on that day if we look at it, the stars of the market were not rising but were in the opposite direction, then if we look at it in that sense, then we will think that brother, our luck is bad, but if anyone even thinks of comparing success with someone like Peter Lynch, then mostly he tells the story of his relatives also that it is not that investment was only meant for his family.
Most of his relatives also do not believe in the stock market and why should they? Because his family had witnessed the stock market disaster of 1929, the Great Depression. So there was no discussion there at all. No one discusses buying or selling stocks inside the house. So because these people saw it, no one believed that there was anything very reliable in the stock market.
But you see this, when people do n't believe, that's when the biggest bull market comes. There has never been a better bull market in the past or future than the 1950s. So not every American believed in the stock market in the 1950s and 60s. That's when there is a very ' it's too risky' attitude or 'you will lose all your money'.
The kind where people get so scared even about sensible things. So at that time a very good bull market comes. So where is the problem that small investors are pessimistic at the wrong time and optimistic at the wrong time and big investors are the opposite in that. So this is what I learned. Now he has told about his personal journey that his father was a very hardworking man.
Formerly a professor of mathematics. He fell ill when he was seven years old and died of brain cancer at the age of 10. So his mother also had to go to work and he also thought that he would also help the family by doing part time work. When I was 11, I was in the 11th grade as a caddie, who carries the golfer's luggage and guides them on how to hit, don't swing it up and down the grass, hit it slowly, or whatever they do from that side, they call it caddie.
They hit the ball when a golfer catches it, so I said that caddie's job was very good, it was an ideal occupation at that time because even if we woke up at 6:00 in the morning and threw newspapers for seven days, then also we would earn more in one afternoon by becoming a caddie than them. Later, when I started high school, I came to know about the real advantage of caddieship because caddieship is golf, that is, only big people play it, it is a big game for big people, so presidents, CEOs, etc., from major corporations used to come, so those people like Gillette, Polaroid, Fidelity, so George Liven ji was from Fidelity, so from there, I used to get a lot of investment knowledge, so there is discussion in a circle also.
That brother, there is a door in the board room of a big company and a path also comes out from the local room of the golf club. Like the name of the mean Brab Burn there was a golf club. So if you want information about stocks, say, then the golf course is the second best place. Of course, the first best place is the exchange floor.
Like our Ramdev Agarwal or many people who are brokers have learned from the first best source. So what used to happen there was that suppose you did the work of two or four caddies and helped in a few things, then those people used to discuss it among themselves also. So he gained a lot of knowledge from that also.
He did not have money at that time but he had it. So, he learns many things about how a person is and what he is not, so as he tells us about his personal journey, he tells us about his personal journey, so a notion has been instilled in his mind about caddying that brother, one thing that helps in life is having money, so the money he gets from caddying means that he gets a college scholarship, so he is also telling about his schooling education that brother, he avoided science, taught maths, accounting, a little bit of nominal, a little bit of integrated education in something, otherwise he has been a student of history.
I have been from the art side. He studied psychology, political science, metaphysics, epistemology, logic, religion, philosophy of ancient Greeks, it does not mean that he studied finance and did all these things. It is said that stock investing is an art and not a science. One who sees everything through rigid number glasses remains at a loss.
So whatever mathematics is required is required in the stock market. She comes in the fourth grade itself. So this is what he has to say. Now let us come to the one who is saying from his education that the biggest benefit I got was from studying logic because the stock market is very illogical. He explains that just like the ancient Greeks would sit near a horse and would guess among themselves how many teeth the horse has, they would guess for days.
It is not that brother, you just open the horse's mouth and count its teeth. I am getting so upset. So betting is happening in that. So this thing is Wall Street. So there will be no logical work there. There is a lot of illogical work. So still, how do you make money in this? Because logic will come in between.
Everything will make money, you will get money, so they are saying all those things. So every day, if anyone goes to Wall Street to find the cause and effect logically, he will remain confused because he confuses. Lynch's first stock purchase in 1963 was Flying Tiger Airlines, which was no fluke; it was something he used to pay for his graduation tuition.
So this was not a guess. I read an article that it has a promising future. So it will go up. But that's not why he went up. It went up because the Vietnam War had started and it got a lot of work in the movement of cargo troops. So it went up. Then, in this way, from here, these people also studied in Boston College etc.
Then there is Mr. Sulwan, who is our golfer, he says that Sulwan used to play very bad golf and was a good man and used to give good tips. So it says, brother, if you find a good golfer and a bad tipper, or a bad golfer and a good tipper, what would you choose? So he said, brother, we will choose the one who gives us more tips even if he plays golf poorly.
So he said that all this is there, he said come to Fidelity. When Suvan ji offered, then Fidelity Bhai, at that time Fidelity type or New York or Club Augusta National, Carnocki Hall, Kent's Derby, all these things were well known investment houses, who would not like to work there, so Fidelity used to sell such good mutual funds that even my mother used to invest $ every month, so you can understand that they have sold mutual funds to the entire America, Fidelity used to run a lot of fund wings like this, so the name of the founder of Fidelity is Ned Johnson, so he is saying that his knowledge is that you do not invest money in stocks to preserve your capital.
You invest to make money. So what you are saying is that the stock which you are not trading means you are not buying and selling it. She has become like a wife in whom you are trapped. So this is what Nate Johnson means. That means he used to say the same thing many times, that had become his catchphrase.
Then an article tells about random walk and main sugar. So this thing is that when he took up Fidelity, he is telling that even in the Liberal Arts major, he was able to do a good deal of stock analysis. So, it's not like they first picked up all these industries, which they meant segments, and after earning a little money, they went to WTO.
They found that what was being taught for investment success was failing because of their fertility experience. This is what they found out. The Efficient Market Hypothesis theory clearly contradicted the Random Walk Hypothesis. So, it was hard to digest. It was hard to believe that the market was irrational when Fidelity was repeatedly able to multiply a stock 20- fold, like he did with Cantonese Fried Chicken.
After two years at WTO, he also worked as a Lieutenant in the Artillery section of the Army. Then he went to Korea and distanced himself from the stock market. At that time, there was no stock market in Korea. Sometimes, during leave, he would come home and take it. If a friend told him something, a colleague told him something, then friends would be on high-flying issues.
So they used to adopt them, they used to call them conservative, large cap type, in that they made some money in Ranger Oil but the money was lost in Main Sugar, let me tell you a little story of Main Sugar that Main Sugar was sure that it will make money because it is farming beet root etc. or Main Potato, so everything was right.
But the main farmers had become more cautious. He was experimenting a little bit instead of planting thousands or even 100 acres of sugar beets. So when the work is done then apply it on half an acre. So by the time they reached the full acreage, the refinery itself started running in losses. So the main sugar became bankrupt.
So this is what happens. Meaning you analyzed everything. But still, what you will earn depends on which way the camel turns. He returned to Korea in 1969 and rejoined Fidelity as a permanent employee and research analyst. When he returned, the stock market crashed, indicating that his fortunes were not shining.
At that time, Fidelity Magellan had $20 million in assets. Nate Johnson was managing 40 stocks. The head of Fidelity, he said, "Brother, make this 25." Lynch listened calmly, and then increased that number from 25 to 60. Six months later, it reached 100, and then further increased it to 150. He wasn't doing this intentionally.
He was trying to tease Nate. He felt like the market was down, so he was seeing bargains everywhere. He could n't stop himself. This is Ned Johnson, but he was an open-minded man. He was n't doing that. As long as he was making money, he was cheering positively. As long as he was delivering results, he was telling.
There are ah a lot of companies that I'm talking about like Southand Ho Circle K National Convenience Shop and Gopin Foods Fairmonds Sunsin Junior Buying 100 Sub Stocks Suddenly Wasn't Nat Johnson Idea of How to Run an Equity Fund But I'm Still Here. But I still exist today, even going against Nate Johnson.
This means I was not that wrong. So many times people used to jokingly tell me that brother, you are the Will Rogers of equities. So Will Rogers means he used to take everything in the world. So you can say that brother, which one did Barron use to make fun of, like Barron's Dictionary etc., that brother, which is that stock which Lynch has not bought because at that time he had 1400 stocks.
So one point is that it does not mean that there is so much diversification. But there is also an advice from Bill Rogers that the best bit of advice which he considers to be Don't Gamble, Take All Your Savings and Buy Some Good Stock and Hold It Till It Goes Up and Then Sell It. If it doesn't go up, don't buy it.
That if it doesn't go up, don't buy it. So this chapter closes here. I hope you like it. And if you like it then like it, share it, subscribe it friend. Isn't it? It takes a lot of effort to read and that too by taking running notes. So if you appreciate and if you have any, then please comment. Thank you.
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