저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
제이미 다이먼은 미국 경기침체 확률이 50% 이상(시장이 반영한 연착륙 확률 70~80%는 과대평가)이라 보고 신중한 입장을 밝힘. 고금리+침체 시 상업용 부동산과 지역은행이 타격받을 수 있으나 거시경제 영향은 제한적이라 봄. 진행자는 다이먼이 최근 JP모건 주식 약 80만주 이상을 매도한 점을 들어 그의 경고를 행동과 함께 해석하며, 시장 금리 인하 기대가 6~7월로 밀리고 있다고 설명.
다듬은 글
so guess what the diamond is back he's back talking about cautious on everything soft Landing not so sure about that and it's so very interesting that these comments come out after he sold lot of shares of uh the JP Morgan stock about approximately 800,000 plus I did a video on this yesterday you could check it out but it's very interesting that uh he came out to after selling his shares talk about how he's very cautious on the economy going forward so I'm going to share my screen here and share with you show you this article that comes out from CNBC and it's basically titled here Jamie Diamond is cautious about everything as he sees risks to a soft Landing so here it is so it starts off saying JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond thinks there's a better than even chance that us is heading for recession though he doesn't see syat doesn't see systemic issues looming speaking Monday from JP Morgan high yield and leveraged Finance conference in Miami the head of the large just US Bank by asset said markets probably aren't pricing in a strong enough probability that interest rates could stay for longer it's very interesting you know I've been saying this on this channel that it's not surprising it wouldn't be surprising to see rates be pushed out later this year you know maybe mid this year or later this year especially if data continues to be stronger than expected Diamond noted there are things out there which which are kind of concerning and he disagreed with the high level of probability being assigned to the economy missing recession the market is kind of pricing in a soft Landing that may very well happen he told CNBC but the Market's odds are 70 to 80% and he said I'll give you half half that that's all on a soft Landing the comments come as the markets indeed had to repic its expectations for monitor policy like I was talking about right the the the Traders are now seeing that easing and rate Cuts may not start until June and July so if you remember in March Mar Traders were expecting some sort of rate cuts by then and that was basically thrown out the window and then Traders were expecting May and now that's being pushed out to now June July with three Cuts now priced in half of the prior expectations right so basically they were expecting way more rate cuts the markets even though the FED told us they're going to stick with three right along with elevated rates markets have to contend with the Federal Reserve rolling off its Bond Holdings a process known as quantitative tightening right so not only they're cutting rates they're still tightening the market still doing QT while the central bank is expected to start tapering the program soon it remained another factor in tight monetary policy it's always a mistake to look at just the year Diamond said all these factors we talked about QT fiscal spending deficits geopolitics those things may play out over multiple years so basically saying that this recession that everyone is expected to come we were all looking at it from a one-year point of view but that happens to not be so true so actually we should be looking at it at multiple years uh but they will play out and they will have an effect and in my mind I'm just kind of cautious about everything so there you go he's telling you he's cautious he's cautious he's cautious he doesn't believe that soft Landing is very likely he also goes to say that he doesn't expect a replay of some of the serious downturns like in the US economy fac in 2008 the great financial crisis um however he does say that the higher interest rates along with the recession could hit areas such as commercial real estate and Regional Banks hard but with limited macroeconomic impacts but then after saying that you know that the recession may not be that bad and it may not be like 2008 and he's cautious and blah blah blah he then goes to say if we have a recession and yes it will get worse if we don't have a recession I think most people will find will be able to muddle through this part of this is just normalization process rates were so low for so long if rates go up and we have a recession there will be real estate problems and some banks will have much bigger real estate problem than others so goes on to say you know it's going to be limited in terms of macroeconomic impacts but then says that if we have a recession things will get worse and certain banks will be hit hard right and he and he used some banks he didn't specify exactly the regional Banks because it says here as far as Regional Banks go he labeled issues that hit institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank and New York Community Bank as idiosyncratic and said private credit could take a hit but not at a systemic level so he's kind of balancing here Teeter tottering you know balancing effect here but basically giving you the warning signs the caution signs but the biggest telling point is not just his caution sign is what and not what what he's saying in those words is his actions is what he did just recently which was sell 800 more than 800,000 shares of JP Morgan stock at the highs and literally that amounts to um which which literally ends up being you know the first sale or major sale that he's ever really done and he's always been a buyer of JP Morgan stock it was just the first time ever that he did this massive sale definitely if you look at the video I posted yesterday you will see how great an amazing Trader he is when it comes to timing the bottoms the buying and now we'll probably see also how he timed this selloff too I think it has yet to come we have yet to see the truth behind all of this but it's just another Point here you know after him selling a crazy amount of shares that he's now coming and saying he's cautious cautious cautious cautious right but obviously not really going out in public and and and and warning uh explicitly saying oh it's going to be hard and it's going to be like 2008 just saying yeah you know they're I'm cautious but I don't want to create any fear right now because he runs one of the largest banks out there and if he starts creating fear out there then definitely will not be good even for his own bank so anyways let me know what you guys think leave a comment below subscribe hit the like button Bell icon to be notified on next video and I'll see you guys around cheers bye
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