저자: PeterSchiff및JordanPeterson대담—소속제목기준추정 · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 가치 저장 수단이 아니며 금 기반 디지털 토큰이 더 나은 대안이나 아직 수요가 없다. 비트코인 평가: 블록체인 기반의 변조 불가능성, 희소성, 이동성 등 금의 일부 특성을 모방했으나 금속으로서의 실물 사용가치가 없다. 가격과 가치 구분: 비트코인은 가격(price)만 있고 가치(value)가 없으며, 가격은 신뢰와 투기적 기대에 의존한다. 2021년 약 7만 달러 고점 이후 현재 약 2.7만 달러 수준으로 언급되었다. 화폐 기능 평가: 가격 변동성이 커서 계산단위로 부적합하고, 거래 비용이 커서 교환 매체로도 부적합하다. 법정화폐 지위나 세금 수납 요구가 없어 자연 수요가 없다는 주장이다. 금 기반 토큰 제안: 금을 보관 시설에 두고 그 디지털 증서를 발행해 소액 결제에 쓰는 방식이 비트코인보다 효율적이라는 주장이다. 제3자 신뢰 문제는 자본주의의 보험·신용평가 구조로 해결 가능하다고 봤다. 금 기반 코인의 부재 이유: 법적 장벽이 있다는 언급이 있으나 성공 사례는 확인되지 않았다. 현재 암호화폐 수요는 부자가 되려는 투기 수요이며, 실제 결제 수단으로는 법정화폐가 쓰인다. 향후 전망: 인플레이션이 심해지고 암호화폐 거품이 꺼지면 보존 목적의 대안 수요가 커질 것이라는 견해다. 중앙은행의 금 매입은 이미 진행 중이라고 언급했다. 중앙은행 디지털화폐 우려: 중앙은행 디지털화폐는 현금을 없애고 정부 권력을 키워 개인의 자유를 줄일 수 있다고 경고했다. 주요 언급 자산: 비트코인(부정적, 가치 없음·투기), 금(긍정적, 실물 가치 저장), 금 기반 토큰(긍정적 대안, 수요 미형성). 주가·지수·환율·금리 등에 대한 구체 예측은 없었다. 출연자 전망 요지: 비트코인 단기 거품 붕괴 가능성과 금 수요 증가 전망.
다듬은 글
front for a second so so you know I've been contemplating permanent store storehouses of value concerned about such phenomenon that we've been discussing as inflation and potentially hyperinflation Which is far from rare even among developed countries I think you have a one percent chance if you live in a developed country of uh hyperinflation incident at some point in your life it's something like that but anyways the cryptocurrency people and I think the Bitcoin people have made this case the best is that they've managed to duplicate gold in its important elements in that they've produced a storehouse of value that can't be corrupted because it's blockchained and distributed and that's a nice argument that also gets more scarce with time which was quite the brilliant um technological innovation that requires work to obtain and so that's the Bitcoin mining but that is also easily distributable digitally and so it's out of the hands of governments it's an uncorruptable store of value it's widely distributed and it's easily moved and so you know that's not that that accounts for a fair number of the properties that you described a money a moment a monetary unit had to possess so what do you think of crypto in general but more specifically about Bitcoin because I think it's king of the cryptos and do you think there's a case to be made that gold has an advantage that crypto cannot duplicate and then we might ask well what if you had a gold-backed crypto because maybe then you could have the best of both worlds so so what are your thoughts about the I mean bitcoin's done pretty well for a currency that doesn't exist you know that's not government mandated Etc it's stored its value there's a lot of well variability oh first of all but Bitcoin isn't a store value because you can't store something that you don't have right first you have to have the value so as I said Gold's value is its use as a metal right that's what you're storing is the future use of gold and metal whether you're going to use it in jewelry or as a conductor in electronics or in medicine whatever it is you're you're storing that uh Bitcoin only has a price doesn't have value price is something that you pay right value is something that you get when you buy Bitcoin you pay a price but you get no real value um and now I agree the price of Bitcoin has gone way up from when it was first started where you know you could get multiple Bitcoins for a fraction of a penny or a dollar whatever they started next to nothing and at one point people were paying almost seventy thousand dollars for for a Bitcoin um currently it's around 27 000 as we're recording this um so depending on when you bought you you potentially made a lot of money if you sold if you bought during the Mania hysteria of 2021 you know you you've lost a lot of your money if you if you get out um but looking at Bitcoin look Bitcoin did an excellent job of replicating the qualities that gold has that made it better money than you know cattle you know or salt or you know other Commodities that have been money right gold did has certain properties and Bitcoin you know captured those properties but the most important property at all of all is Gold's metallic properties gold as a commodity Bitcoin has none of that and and so Bitcoin just like a fiat currency what what gives a fiat currency its value just confidence people just believe that it has value they believe that people will accept it now part of that belief is driven by governments which declare it legal tender and which require it for payment of taxes and so there is some real demand for dollars if you live in America there's a demand for euros if you're in Europe because you have to pay taxes and if you don't pay taxes they can put you in jail and so in order to avoid jail you need the currency that the the government demands uh but Bitcoin is similar to Fiat in that all of its value comes from faith and confidence people just believe that people in the future will want it and they'll pay a higher price for it except there is no legal currency status there is no government really maybe other than El Salvador I don't know what's going on over there but there's no government that is accepting tax payments in Bitcoin um so there's no natural demand other than the speculative demand from people who think they're going to get rich I mean people who buy Bitcoin are buying it because they expect the price to go up and the people who buy it from them thinks their the price is going to go up so it's just greater full theory that the price is going to go up and that's what's driving people to buy it uh it's very cumbersome if you want to use it as a medium exchange or a unit of account it's too volatile to be a unit of account it's too expensive to be a medium of exchange and it can't be a store of value uh so it's it's it's not gold it's you know digital Fool's Gold but you you hit the nail on the head when you talked about a crypto that's actually backed by gold that works that solves all the problems that bitcoiners claim gold has it well you know I can't send my gold around the world I can't use my gold to buy a cup of coffee well yes you can it's a lot better than Bitcoin if I have gold stored with any third party it could be a government it could be a private company be anybody you could tokenize that gold and have a Bitcoin similar cryptocurrency that is a digital representation of that actual goal it's like a warehouse receipt an IOU for gold and then if I wanted to give you some of my gold I wouldn't have to ship you my bar I could just send you my tokens you know over the internet and and now the ownership goes from me to you um you know it's it's an improvement on paper money because again initially paper money came as a substitute for gold I had my gold stored with a blacksmith and instead of lugging my gold around my blacksmith gave me an IOU and then I could circulate that IOU because everybody knows the gold is there and instead of having to get it they just circulate uh the IOU in in the paper terms well it's much more efficient to do it uh crypto digitally and you can take an ounce of gold or a gram of gold and divide it you know to tiny little pieces so that I could buy a cup of coffee and pay the Barista with my gold uh using the token uh and it would be faster and cheaper than Bitcoin and the difference is when I'm paying with gold I'm paying with something real I'm getting one commodity for another I'm getting coffee and the guy that sold me coffee is getting gold um and you can actually denominate the price in Gold because gold is stable I mean it could function much better as a monetary instrument the only thing that you have you have to trust you have to trust the third party but I mean capitalism is all about trusting third parties I mean private third parties we we buy an insurance policy people buy life insurance fire Insurance health insurance it's all a third party that's selling you that policy the policy is only as good as the third party's ability to to pay you know how do you you know we have rating agencies we have capitalism we have competition for reputation there is no reason that you can't have third parties to store your gold and then you could use it you don't have to store all of your gold that way you can keep a lot of your gold yourself but the goal that you want to use as a media of exchange uh you can use that uh digitally and that works much better uh than Bitcoin you have real value you have real well I've talked I've talked to people who have attempted to produce gold-backed cryptocurrencies and they've run into from my understanding a variety of legal impediments on that front do you know of anybody who's doing that successfully and if so why aren't they uh Prime competitors let's say in the international market for Bitcoin I mean the argument you laid out seems to make sense and so you'd think well you'd think two things you'd think given that governments are rushing to digital currencies and that some governments would like to displace the U.S dollar as the reserve currency that the logical thing to do for some enterprising country would be to produce a digital currency that was gold backed and so what's happening on that front okay so there's two things first of all the demand that is mainly coming in cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin is to get rich right people want to buy Bitcoin because they think it's going to go to the Moon and so that's really the demand for cryptocurrencies it's not to have an alternative as a medium of exchange and as a unit of account most people that are buying Bitcoin they still use dollars or Euros or Pounds in their transactions they just hoard their Bitcoin because they think they're going to get rich and and so there's no real Demand yet for a cryptocurrency that's backed by gold to be used as a medium exchange people are still content to use their Fiat currencies for that role um but I think that once this crypto bubble really pops and the losses you know stack up and and people get burned and they're no longer interested in these get rich quick schemes and they really start to focus on an alternative not to get rich but to preserve what they have right because that's what gold is Right physical gold is not about getting rich it's about avoiding becoming poor it's about avoiding the inflation tax and so I think as the inflation rates get worse throughout you know the world there will be more of a demand for an alternative medium of exchange to these Fiat currencies that can also store value you said you said some of that is happening already you said that many countries around the world the central banks are buying gold the central banks right right so and and many of those central banks are also starting to experiment with the idea of an imposed digital currency well there there's there's flirting on the market what they're talking about is a digital fiat currency that just gives them more yes I know they just want they and if they want to eliminate cash it's just inherently a very oppressive monetary system that concentrates even more power in government and diminishes uh individual liberty and makes it easier for governments to become more tyrannical so that's a whole different a topic but staying on a gold back crypto so one reason is that there's not a lot of demand for it yet
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