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Warren Buffett Thinks The Stock Market Is Going To CRASH?

MagooInvesting · 2020-08-18 · 유튜브 시청 3,309 · 게시판 조회 7 · 외국인

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hey guys how's it going it's andy from google investing happy tuesday yeah so normally i'm making videos on monday wednesday and friday and on sunday i was planning out the video and i was just really not feeling it and i think it's really important that i only do videos that i feel pretty passionate about because i feel like the quality of the video declines significantly if my heart isn't really on the topic so i decided to give myself an extra 24 hours and today we're going to be talking about a major change that we've seen with warren buffett and his investing strategy warren buffett is probably the most famous investor of all time and a lot of people look at his decisions when it comes to berkshire hathaway to determine what they're going to be doing with their portfolio and i've read a lot about warren buffett i have one of his books i was going to show it and just throw it up real fast but uh yeah it's a dark green cover on a green screen and that would not go that well but anyway warren buffett is considered to be a value investor and he's made some significant changes to his investing style in the past couple months so in today's video i want to talk about what that means and kind of the key takeaways that i'm getting from that and how i'm going to be investing in my portfolio going forward before getting started i have to say that i'm not a licensed financial advisor and this is not financial advice anything you hear in this video is just me giving my own depends on the stock market and you need to do your own research before making any investment decisions also if you've been enjoying these videos really appreciate if you hit that like and subscribe button as would help my channel out a lot with out of the way let's get started and talk about warren buffett and berkshire hathaway and so warren buffett is influential just because of how famous he is as an investor but also because berkshire hathaway his holding company has 242 trillion dollars invested in the stock market so whenever he makes any large decisions for his portfolio it has some ramifications when it comes to the overall market and the reason we know this is because he has to disclose some of these transactions to the sec with this 13f filings and so we know what he's done in quarter two and so when i first saw this news pop up in my feed my first thought was oh that's interesting does he think the market's going to crash and so buffett has made two significant changes in investing strategy in the past couple months the first one was when he decided back in april to sell all four of his major airline stocks the four major airline stocks being united american delta and southwest that was a huge decision because he owned a lot of these airlines and they pushed the stocks down significantly after that news and so when warren buffett decides to sell a lot of his shares at a loss he talks about some of the reasoning that he thinks that the airline industry is never going to go back to being the same that it was pretty pandemic and so he thinks that the amount of travel that people are going to be doing isn't going to return for a couple years and so i personally think differently and i've made a video talking about why about southwest and if you want to see that i'll throw it up above right now but whenever warren buffett decides to sell these trillions of dollars of airline stocks it's a big deal and so you saw that change and he sold it at a loss which is not something that buffett does very often and now it came out at the end of last week that warren buffett bought gold and i saw that article and the first one talked about warren buffett buying gold and then the one next to it was that he didn't buy gold and i was kind of confused for a bit but what he ended up doing is he bought ticker symbol gold g-o-l-d which is barrack gold which is a canadian mining company and the other thing that he did was he sold a lot of his bank stocks which is a place that he's felt very comfortable in the past and so he sold a lot of wells fargo and jp morgan chase ticker symbol jpm and so bank of america is still his second largest position overall so we still have some money in the banks but it's very interesting to see warren buffett who has been famously pro bank and anti-gold kind of switching his tune and i wanted to talk about why he might be thinking about this and what it means to me as an investor and so it's very interesting to see buffett buying into gold right now considering it's up 45 year to date when i was doing the research for this on sunday night and it was trading for 27 and as the news came out that he bought the stock after hours it jumped up to 29 they're showing some of the importance behind an investor like buffett and so far gold the precious metal has been on a tear for the past year at this point being up around 50 overall and so while he didn't buy directly into gold he's buying into a mining company that's one of the largest mining operations in the world so when gold goes up this mining company will go up as well and so let's talk about the bank aspect of it because i think that's really interesting and so warren buffett has famously been very positive when it comes to the banking industry and going from the last recession they had a lot of problems and that was one of the main factors that pushed the economy and the stock market down and at this point they are in a better spot we have some of the precautions that were put in by the federal reserve that we've seen in action with these stress tests where i think it was wells fargo failed a stress test and had to lower their dividend because they didn't have enough money set aside and so they are in a better spot than they were back in 2007 but buffett obviously thinks that they are in a tough spot and we've seen some of the news reports recently especially from the earnings reports about how much money these banks are holding in cash to protect themselves from bad loans and so that is a problem going forward and even the federal reserve had come out and said that they're worried about the ability for these banks to replenish their capital going forward and so at this point we know of around 76 billion dollars that have been set aside for loan provisions that's a lot of money and apparently buffett thinks that this might not be enough and thinks that similar to the airline industry that he thought isn't going to recover for a couple years he thinks banks are in a tough spot as well and that's why he decided to cut ties with a lot of them and i personally think it's really interesting that he cut ties with wells fargo and jp morgan but then he keeps buying into bank of america and i think bank of america is a very average bank stock at best and so if i had to rank them i'd go jp morgan bank of america wells fargo i don't think is great but jp morgan has done very well and they've shown a lot of potential with their investment banking but apparently warren buffett thinks differently and so now with the gold aspect it would be one thing if he just sold his bank stocks because that would make a little bit of sense but it seems like he's hedging his position against some possible tough times in the overall economy going with inflation is what it really seems like he's protecting himself against and so gold has been one of these famous places that people go when there's a lot of uncertainty and gold has been a fantastic place to invest in when inflation is high and for the eight years that inflation has been over five percent since 1974 uh yeah gold has gone up 15 percent on average year over year and this has outpaced the overall market and so if warren buffett thinks inflation is going to rise relatively soon this could be him kind of hedging his positions obviously he puts so much money in the overall stock market and his gold position is relatively small but it's very interesting to see him go away from bank stocks and into a gold mining company and so what does this information mean for me and while this information isn't going to make me do a 180 on how i'm feeling overall for someone like myself that has felt very cautious about the overall market for a couple weeks and i keep seeing these things in the market that i expected to push things down i remember pinpointing the end of july for the expiration of the unemployment benefits and the fact that we're still waiting on a another stimulus bill and we're getting into the third week of august and the government be at a recess right now if it wasn't for the debacle with the post office right now and so we're going into the end of august and we don't have a bill that's going to be put in motion anytime soon and you know the market keeps doing its own thing and so the federal reserve is doing everything that they can to keep the market as stable as possible we've seen interest rates be zero for months at this point we saw the bailouts of mainly the airlines for 25 billion dollars and the fact that they are investing hundreds of billion dollars into stock bonds and so buffett going away from banks and into gold could mean that he's looking at a potential problem with inflation going forward it's going to be very interesting to see the minutes that come from the federal reserve meeting this wednesday to see kind of what they're talking about apparently they're supposed to address inflation it'll be very interesting and so the longer the interest rates are closer to zero the more danger that's going to have at this point i don't see them raising interest rates anytime soon we still have a lot of problems but it's going to be very interesting and so if inflation does rise uh gold prices tend to go up because as the purchasing power of the dollar decreases the value of gold increases and so this has always been a safe play for people that think inflation is going to take over and so i personally do not have any gold in my portfolio my inflation hedge is actually bitcoin which i've seen a lot of articles talking about why they think this move from warren buffett into buying gold could be very positive for bitcoin and we've seen that price uh increase significantly from 10 000 up to 12 at this point and so that could mean better days for bitcoin going forward and for someone like myself that was in the red for nine months maybe even a full year i'm very happy to be up around 30 at this point but it's going to be very interesting and obviously buffett selling banks and buying gold isn't going to make me panic sell everything i own but it's very interesting to see the world's most famous investor kind of changed his investing tune multiple times in the past couple months selling the airlines and now this recent transaction that he's made and so i'm still pretty wary i am worried about the overall market i understand why it's still going up because there's been a lot of positives and not any surprise negatives that would start a chain reaction of people panic selling their shares and so i'm still bullish overall i have money set aside and i'm just kind of waiting to see what happens i have enough exposure and i'm very curious to see what you guys have to say about where the market's going to be heading at this point so let me know what topics you'd like me to go over in a future episode i appreciate all the support and i will see you on wednesday

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