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Ed yini is with US president at yini research Ed good morning good to have you with us here as always on the program uh all is well Ed I mean we saw a bit of a reversal on Friday in the US uh right I mean uh the headline was strong and then everyone thought the detail was weaker so what which one is it and what did you make of it well I think the economy is fine the the labor market still uh quite tight there's still plenty of job openings I think the uh weakness in the stock market really had was more of a technical development we've had a huge runup ON Semiconductor stocks and uh they were due for a bit of a correction and we saw that uh Nvidia was down by over 5% some technology companies some semiconductor companies mentioned that things weren't as spectacular as they seemed to be for NVIDIA but I think there was simply some profit taking at the end of uh at the end of the week meanwhile in a couple of weeks we're gonna have um in San Jose California a big Festival sponsored by Nvidia to show off everything that artificial intelligence might be able to do so I don't see this Market really selling off much more in in the face of uh what will probably be a fairly exciting um convention by Nvidia yeah okay that's going to be an interesting one right but uh how are you feeling about uh Emerging Markets like India now Ed because the go has been good so far but at the moment we're also seeing some signs of Correction in the broader markets the mid and small caps uh would you be cautious you know after the runup that we've seen sure yeah I I think India's had a an extraordinary run and uh some profit taking there is probably advisable but uh I think the long-term prospects remain quite uh bright for India you know I think when you look at Emerging Markets when Global Investors look at Emerging Markets they realize that China is in a recession I I know their data doesn't necessarily confirm that but certainly uh the weakness in their stock market over the past couple of years the government's attempt to stabilize the economy and particularly the stock market all suggest that the property Market uh bust really is depressing China and in turn that's depressing global commodity prices which isn't very good for countries like Brazil on the other hand countries that import commodities like India get a benefit from all that so I think that's been another reason why India is outperformed China would have done fine if it wasn't the fact that they've got a property bubble that's burst hi Ed good morning good to see you and you know on the S&P 500 from the October lows I think that Market's up a th000 points and you have told us in the past you expected to go to around that 5,400 odd Mark so Global setup looks pretty okay you know going by what you're telling us but for India and farther Emerging Markets the dollar Index is going to be Cru crucial as well and that's cooled off a little bit you know it gave us that feeling that maybe it's going to go past the 105 level it's cooled off to around 102 and a half which is great news how do you see that one behaving well I think a lot is going to determine be determined by the Market's perception of what the Federal Reserve is going to do and I think there's still an expectation especially after Pal's U testimony in Congress that he said that you know uh we're not far off from lowering interest rates that that seems to be uh the story he's telling um I think that they are actually going to turn out to be some much further off than pal was indicating I think they have to be concerned about the speculative excesses in the financial markets and if the economy continues to do well all all that really means that the unemployment rate stays below 4% and it's been below 4% for 25 months in a row now and inflation continues to come down why mess with success why lower interest rates why rush to do that and I I think there's going to be some push back from some of the other members of the Federal open mouth Market Committee and I think there'll be um I I think it's I I don't expect to see more than two rate Cuts later this year and there's a case to be made for no rate cuts at all if that's the case then the Dollar's not going down so case to be made for no rate cuts at all as well and you don't see more than two rate Cuts this year so just to summarize uh when it comes to the Indian markets you continue to be bullish you don't believe that there is any major correction coming through anytime soon right this could be a stable up move that could continue despite having big events like the elections upon us well I'll be honest with you I'm not great at calling corrections I think it's a it's it's a tough game to play and if you call it well and and call the top you also have to call the bottom in a correction and PE people who get top sometimes forget to tell you to get back in I think you stay with the market I think you invest in good quality names I think uh Broad out to some of the midcap smaller and midcap stocks make sense in the Indian market the Indian Market's very reminiscent uh similar to what we're seeing in the United States a very strong bull market led by a few stocks and then at some point the market broadens out which I think both markets are starting to do all right we leave it at that Ed thanks a lot for joining and appreciate your thoughts let's
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