저자: TuckerCarlson/TheoVaughn팟캐스트클립및Acequisition채널출연자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 공매도(short selling) 옹호 논리를 다룬다. 공매도는 고평가 교정, 회계 사기 적발(Enron, WorldCom 등), 유동성 공급, 경영진 규율 역할을 한다고 주장하며, 틱커 칼슨의 공매도 비판을 반박한다. 후반부는 DJT(트럼프미디어)와 MicroStrategy 과거 공매도 성공 사례를 언급하고, 이들이 비트코인 보유 기업 리스크를 지적한다. 과거 추천 실적은 사후 설명이며 향후 가격 예측은 조건부 언급에 그친다.
다듬은 글
Her presence at the top of CBS News means all of those institutions are totally fake. That's what that's what institutions the news institutions are institution Wall Street. If Bill Aman, you tell me one and I'm not even like moralizing, I don't hate Billman, but like Bill Aman's an idiot. Who is he?
I don't know him. He's a hedge fund guy who's made most of his money by shortselling and that means I go on CNBC and I attack your c your company. It stock price falls and I've made a reverse bet against the stock price and I get rich. You tell me how that benefits your society talking out American companies.
Like how is that productive? How is that the act of creation? It's the act of destruction and I give you $8 billion. the whole system is is rigged. Okay. I Well, I think a lot of people feel that now. They feel like they feel like the system is rigged. They feel like there's no way for them to win. They feel like it's all insider trading.
You've watched a clip on Tucker Carson and Theo Vaughn's podcast and picked up on something that no one else no one else has picked up on is it's a short selling clip that you wouldn't think these guys would touch on that. Yeah, Tucker Carlson and The Von, two very entertaining guys. Uh I I enjoyed the podcast, but uh we've got to correct uh Tucker Carlson here.
He's wrong about short sellers. He says that short sellers are a are a menace to society and they they bring bad things to the world. And I would argue the the opposite of that. Short sellers are actually a good thing for the market and they help everybody uh for for a start. Um short sellers correct any overvaluations.
If you got two sides of the trade, you're going to get a fair price at the finish line. So you need to have short sellers in the market who are betting against the stock along along with people that are betting in favor of the stock. and that gets to a fair market price that people are willing to pay on that day.
So that is the the the first reason and of course an even bigger reason is finding fraudulent stocks. A lot of the big frauds out there over time were sniffed out by by short sellers. You know things like Worldcom, Enron, huge bankruptcies and and turned out to be turned out to be massive frauds were discovered by short sellers putting that information in out in the market and letting people know what's going on.
So that is another huge reason. Yeah. And that's just transparency. I mean they can they can refute those claims. They can show what they have on their books or don't have. Um people don't have to believe what they say people say. It's it's just a freedom of information really. All the all the information should be out there.
And Tucker in the clip at the start was saying, "Well, people go on CNBC and tell people they should short the stock and they're making money out of that." But there has to be a factual business to that. You can't just go on CNBC and talk about a stock that's doing really well and uh and and short it.
You you actually have to have cold hard facts before anyone's going to pay attention to you. So Tucker, much as I enjoy listening to Tucker, he's absolutely wrong on on short selling. Um you know, the other thing we've got a lot of people would argue right now, we've got a we've got this huge asset bubble in lots of assets, particularly in in tech stocks, AI, and so on.
And again, short sellers can help balance that out. They can uh can if they think something's overvoided, they're putting their hard cash on the line. Yeah. Which they're very much at risk of losing more so than anyone who just bets it. So, yeah, because there's there's there's no uh there's no limit.
If you you buy a stock, you can't lose any more than what you put in. If you're short selling something, there's no limit as to how much you can use. So, these guys are real risk takers. And, you know, we we've both been there as short sellers ourselves in the past. and you know you got a huge risk.
The market can go even if you're right the market can continue going against you um for for a long time. So um you know short sellers are actually more brave and courageous than someone just buying a stock because you you have got to watch that position almost 24/7. Exactly. You know if you're going to guarantee you're not going to make a loss on that and that is you know it's it's a huge risk.
Yeah. Yeah. Especially as you said said as if you could you can't just go on the news as a stocks got absolute strength and then say I'll short now because you could get short squeezed out immediately. You kind of have to wait until there's a one like you said actual information that's legit that's not good about that company or you have to wait until you know things have actually started to to turn turn to the downside.
Um so it's a massive massive risk and you have to time another reason in favor of short sellers is the increased market liquidity. So if there are buyers in the market, they also need to have sellers because if there are no if there are no sellers, there's there's no one to buy stock from. So you need short sellers to create market liquidity.
And this has always happened whenever we have a a big market crash. Everyone blames the short sellers. And that is not us. It's not the short sellers that are the the cause of any market crashes. It's um you know short sellers are a crucial part yeah of a market that functions well and and they you know someone has to speak out in their favor sooner or later.
Yeah and actually a really good point you make there because when you think about it when a stock when Wall Street's crashing from the Trump tariffs or whatever all these short sellers might be making money but when those short sellers cover their positions they're then actively buying to cover that that short.
So that's also I guess gives the liquidity to assist with to assist with these kind of V V recoveries that we get. We probably shouldn't get V recoveries but we get Exactly. That's a point that that was another point I was going to make. If if you have a a big pullback, a big crash in the market or an individual stock.
Yes. That the only sometimes the only buyers there are the short sellers covering their positions. They're the only buyers. There's nobody else that wants to buy that stock when it's crashing other than the short sellers covering their business. So that can actually stop the market going to nearly zero.
Exactly. Yeah. Exactly. And and when they're buying, when their covering comes in, it gives confidence to other people who might not know it's short selling covering. Uh but then those people come in and then it kind of self-fulfilling prophecy where everyone else gets in or off the back of others getting.
So exactly. You know, we had Tucker uh calling the fund manager, Bill Aman, an idiot. And you know, Bill Aman's a guy, a hedge fund manager, very well known, who's worth something like $8 billion. and you you don't make it billion dollar being an idiot this guy and he's not a purely short seller either.
He's a he's a smart fund manager clearly with with respect to Tucker. He doesn't know what he's talking about. Yeah. Yeah. I think uh sometimes on these podcasts you kind of get people to give a lot of views and opinions but actually you need to verify that what they're saying is is good. I mean there's a whole host of things that that that he talks about.
We actually agree with probably 95% of what what he talks about but it's just on this this thing. Um will we still you critique your best friends don't you? You you help them improve themselves. Yeah. Tucker doesn't clearly doesn't understand the market. So you we got an example there of someone talking with great confidence about a subject he knows nothing but you know if I'm sure he's much more knowledgeable than other people on geopolitical events, American politics and so on.
But uh on financial markets he doesn't know what he's talking about. Yeah. He seems to have a thing against kind of VC type people. um anyone who makes money through venture capital uh who yeah cuz I I guess from his point of view these people don't don't aren't the founders of the business and but then you know they are strategically helping these companies and sure like they might be making more than he'd like them to to make but uh it doesn't take away from the fact that these people are good
I I I would say short sellers deserve every penny of what they make given that it's such a difficult thing to do uh and and the la last point I've got on short sellers um is that they they discipline the management of companies because if you you're a short a big a big short seller and and uh the the management of the company know you're there and you publicly disagree with their strategy.
They've got a bad strategy and you publicly disagree with it. You publicly put your money on the line by taking that position against that company. The management going to pay attention and listen it may force them to change a bad strategy and ultimately save the company or cause other shareholders to change.
That's a good point and especially I think there's no excuses for big companies. If big companies are supposedly getting short sellers, there's there's there there's plenty of information out there for people to make their right decisions and it's not like a massive I mean one area that maybe might count on to try and defend him is for example I mean we we we've been we've run small cap companies before and they they can get hit more so by reports or liable than a bigger company because a bigger company can easily fund a defense and tell the truth or and get the truth truth out there.
Whereas you if you're a micro cap company, you might get hit by a massive report um and not have the audience to to receive your kind of counter to their report. Um but I don't know. I don't know. What would you say your view on that is? Would you say it is what it is and it's got to be the same across all markets or um or do you think uh small cap companies I don't know.
I don't Yeah, they because obviously it's also more difficult to short small cap companies. So it probably balances itself out at the end of the day because if you try and short a micro cap company, it's going to be difficult to borrow the stock to short that company. So the the market's probably fixed itself because there's no liquidity there to actually go and short a small cap stock in the first place.
So you're dealing with medium cap stocks and large cap stocks in any case. Yeah. So the problem fixes itself. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Interesting. I think those are really good points. This is a quick quick answer to I mean actually we can touch on some of our some of our wins. We talked about DJT and Micro Strategy.
I think I pulled the I could pull the charts up quickly. I mean that's our old favorite. We we said to when everybody was going long with the Euphoria at this time last year, Trump had just taken power and we we said it was a bad bet then. They've since changed their their strategy and they've they've gone to be a a a Bitcoin treasury company or a crypto treasury company as they call themselves.
Um but it's been done. How much has it gone down since we we said it was a it was a bad idea to Well, this is this is the thing. I mean, we um just in the video we just recorded, we were talking about how um you know, don't get into strength. I mean, we were a bit ballsy and telling people to short into strength whereas normally you'd wait for things to kind of roll over.
I mean we did it on around this day here but we said specifically wait for this 9 per moving wait for the price to cross back below the 9 per moving average and we had drawn out okay these are the highs it's not really it's really struggled to get higher than this line here and uh I mean you could even say you might have got out right got got a short position right at that line or if we're being honest maybe below that blue line there so around here so but if you got in there and had a stop but above the high uh you would have been making money on the downside here as it rolled over and And then when it came down to here, actually I think we did a uh a YouTube video we mentioned that uh once it was coming back up to the 200 to short it again and then that was uh that was where it's been and that's come all the way down from there.
So that's a that's a big one. It's been a disaster for investors. DGT um I I don't know why anybody get into a stock like that in the first place because it it clearly had nothing backing it and other than the Trump name, it's got nothing going for it. Yeah, it was it was 10 times higher than its asset value.
We we like to talk about asset value and actually what people actually have. Now at 40 to50 it was $4 and it's probably is still $4 is where the asset value was and the reverse split back in wherever it was. I remember I remember telling people to buy this company when it was down here just on a sort of speculative play um round trip.
Yeah, it's like a full round trip all the way back down to that $10. And you know, maybe if it got down to 10, which uh it's getting to now, if it's not Yeah, it's starting to start starting to have a small bounce off the 10 there. I mean, if you wanted to try and do a cheeky long, I mean, uh just so that we're not totally
being one-sided, then around that $10 zone could be could be something to watch. Just if you look at the technicals, there won't be any fundamentals in this trade, that's for sure. But as you look at the technicals, wait until it actually does have a solid uh uh a solid reversal. Don't don't Yeah. Yeah.
Don't go in now. Don't go in now. Wait until there's a solid reversal. Yeah, exactly. I mean, you might get a double double bounce here. So, hit 10 was there. Got up to it. Got back above as you know as the things fall crosses over the blue line and you might have added double position there for a short move.
Highly spec. I wouldn't do it, but you know, everybody everybody's their own thing. I think the the short sellers have won the day on this one. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's a good point. And then the last one, which uh I remember um telling you to um to short this as well. I mean, we I mean, we told the viewers to short this once it got well, we were around here in this video and um yeah, I mean, we love the chart on this.
I mean, it bounces off the 200. Bang, bang, bang, beautiful chart. Beautiful chart. Beautiful chart. And then, but it also means that doesn't mean just on the buy side. Wait till it gets underneath it as well and use that to short on the under side. And uh I mean, we we were talking about it here. We were saying like you can short pretty be confident to short now.
uh it was struggling to make new highs and then obviously it wasn't also rising with Bitcoin cuz this is kind of almost yeah it's it's it's it's a it's a system doomed to fail when you just borrow money to to keep buying an asset. It's not it's not a business. If if you want to buy Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin.
Why would you buy Micro Strategy? It's it's insane. Yeah. And then the the the writing was on the wall when it started to fall before Bitcoin fell. But then if you wanted a perfect trade here I mean it's got underneath come up to the 200 tapped it I was telling you that I also told you I remember writing you a text to say look let's let's short this on this day here but we were waiting for more confirmation which was obviously the second red day crawling back down uh and then from here you know it's hugged that nine premoving average all the way down and we have started to trade sideways above it here but I mean that was a brilliant brilliant trade I mean what's that from from uh here to to there that is full 50% % um which
I I I suspect in the in 2026 there are going to be many other brilliant trades in Micro Strategy and we'll try and and cover them here but that Micro Micro Strategy is a great stock to trade but I I'd be looking for Marley on on the downside although it's inevitably it's going to bounce maybe maybe sometime soon but um
we'll be looking for we will leave new entry points to to shortening this one all the way down. Yeah, I think as this curls over here and then this comes up maybe around 280. Um, if it gets that 200 around here and then rolls over, that could be moving again, then yeah, we I would definitely be looking to short that one.
Yeah. Yeah, definitely. It's very uh very easy to read. And I think just because it did just cuz it's uh because it worked on the upside doesn't mean it won't work on the downside as well. Um, and with our prediction that was an amazing prediction with Bitcoin, basically we'd call the crash at 2023K and that maybe it's going to trade sideways for a few years.
If that is the case, I mean, that fits the bill, doesn't it? That 280, if it got up to 280 and just started coming in this range and just chopping for a while, could be some really good trades. So, the the interesting thing to watch in this, and I don't I don't think we're in danger anytime soon, but if Micro Strategy ever becomes a force seller of all the Bitcoin that it's got, then that would not look good for Bitcoin at all.
Yeah, that that will put a lot of pressure on that this stock, but also Bitcoin as well. Um, yeah, awesome. Thank you. Thank you very much. That was a really good nice concise reply. And uh let's see if if I send this to to Tucker or his manager. See if he see what he thinks and what their response is.
If they got the ball, if they got the balls to respond. Um maybe I can send it to Blackman, too. We'll see. Lovely. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. Cheers. Thanks, Joe. Look, I think the answer is well, first of all, I'm philanthropic uh generally. Uh there is a taint associated with shortselling. Uh my experience with MBIA is every time we talked about or made a presentation about MBIA, people would say, "Oh, he only believes that because he's going to make a profit if the stock price goes down." And what's interesting is all day people go on CNBC and talk about stocks they like and no one discredits them by virtue of the fact they're going to make a profit if it rises.
But on the shortselling side, there's something at least some people perceive as inherently wrong with it. In the MBIA case, the stock basically went up for years. This the credit spreads got tighter and tighter and the AAA rate rating remained until one day I gave a presentation at uh forgot which conference and I said at the end of my presentation I hereby to commit to give away 100% of the profits uh that I personally make from this investment.
That was the high for the stock. It went straight down. The credit spreads went from 13 to 2,000. We made, you know, a lot of money. uh I seeded the Persian Square Foundation uh with $140 million from that. Look, I think the answer is well, first of all, I'm philanthropic uh generally. Uh please don't forget to like, subscribe, turn on post notifications, and join our Discord chat room linked in the description so you can see these plays and get in these opportunities when we do. In the modern world, great leaders resolve their conflicts with words. Heat up
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