Apple's stock looks oversold here, says Wedbush's Dan Ives

요약 보기

애플은 과매도 상태로 보이며 매수 관점이 우세하다. 이번 WWDC의 핵심은 칩(M2)과 개인정보보호 중심 소프트웨어 및 서비스 강화다. 공급망 제약 속에서도 신제품을 내놓으며 인텔을 자체 게임에서 앞서가고 있다는 평가다. AR/VR은 이번 행사에서 기대만큼 부각되지 않았으나, 올해 후반~2023년 초 출시 예정인 애플 글래스·VR 헤드셋을 앞두고 개발자 전략을 준비하는 단계로 해석했다. 에코시스템 관점에서는 약 3,000만 명 개발자와 2,600억 달러 지급 구조가 플랫폼 경쟁력을 뒷받침한다고 봤다. 단기 리스크로는 아이폰 매출의 한 자릿수 성장, 중국 봉쇄에 따른 수요 이슈, 공급망 문제, 아이폰14 부품 원가 상승과 가격 인상 가능성, 경기 둔화가 꼽혔다. 반면 서비스 매출은 고teen 성장 중이며 ios 기기 약 20억 대 기반으로 장기 성장성이 견고하다는 입장이다. 아이폰 교체 수요(약 10억 대 미업그레이드)가 하반기 사이클의 촉매가 될 것으로 보며, 현 주가는 상당 부분 선반영되었다고 판단했다. 전반적으로 단기 변동성은 있으나 장기적으로 견조한 에코시스템을 보유한 '바위 같은' 기술주라는 결론이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. dan what's the big headline for investors i think it's really on the chip front i mean that's where the efficiency and the innovation continues they're beating intel at their own game and ultimately they're introducing new products at a time the supply chain continues to be the biggest headwind i think it shows them flex their muscles as well as really doubling down on privacy the developer community really likes this if you look at you know some of the chatter out there and i think this is really them focused software services privacy but still introducing products despite the headwinds and the supply chain is there anything you didn't get that dan that you were expecting to get maybe more on the ar vr front out of today yeah ar vr and we got to see how the conference plays is that i mean that's one you know i think you were expecting maybe them to highlight that more especially ahead of what we believe will be the apple glass uh release in terms of the error our vr headset we later this year early 2023 but i think they're laying the breadcrumbs for what the strategy is going to be with developers and and that's something where they're going to keep that kush to vest till they believe it's the right place the right time that's the dna of cupertino colin as an investor watching apple stock down now 18 for the year how much do you care about the software updates obviously the hardware is really where the revenue driver is but but but it's important for the ecosystem right yeah actually i care quite a bit you know because if you're a holder of apple what you care about is that the ecosystem remains intact and there are 30 million developers that are tuning into this conference apple is a build first platform they paid out 260 billion dollars to developers so they're the platform that pays and so you've got great hardware you've got innovative applications and that's going to keep drawing consumers to the platform do you buy the stock at these levels i think there was a technical iron or death cross according to btig that happened on friday with apple after four percent slide yeah so you know the iphone revenue is going to be growing in single digits right for the fiscal year and that's you know that's going to be a problem and you know there are issues with supply chain there's going to be issues with kobe china lockdowns there's going to be issues with the iphone 14 having more expensive components and being priced a little higher than people may expect there are issues with the broader economy slowing down right but if you're a believer in the services story right which is growing in the high teens right you've already got close to 2 billion ios devices out there and that services revenue is going to just keep layering on and on so if you have a longer term look apple is the it's a very healthy ecosystem there's nothing wrong with the platform or the demand but it's going to be a bumpy road for a few quarters you agree dan you're pretty bullish on this company you agree that there are bumps though in the near term look i think the bumps are well known in terms of what we've seen with the zero coveted in china some of the demand issues i think street looks past after the june quarter it's all about the drum mode iphone 14 and what's a pen up demand cycle a quarter of the billion iphones out there still have not upgraded and i think a lot of this is priced into the stock where buyers say this is a rock or gibraltar tech stock that in my opinion is oversold here can we just one minute more on the on the chip the m2 because you said that was the big announcement dan what what does that allow apple to do in the middle of a global chip shortage and a really competitive market who does it hurt and and what does it actually mean for apple product well well i think you saw it today because they're flexing their muscles they have more control over their accuracy it's no longer just waiting for intel to see if they pick up the phone they're beating intel at their own game the negative for intel and typically it's another gut punch that ultimately would there be a from an innovation perspective in terms of the m2 chip and i think it's giving them more not just control but also on the margin perspective that's another talent that's why this is so important remember the haters that say innovations in the rear view mirror look at m2 they're beating ship companies their own game