저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 민주당 후보 선정 과정의 불확실성이 2020년 상반기 시장 변동성을 키울 수 있으나, 대세 판단은 후보 확정 이후 정상화된다. 민주당 경선 구조: 1차 투표에서 슈퍼대의원 표가 배제되며, 승자독식 주가 없고 15% 이상 득표 시 대의원을 비례 배분한다. 후보가 난립해 1차 투표에서 확정되지 않을 가능성이 크다. 블룸버그 변수: 11월 중순 블룸버그가 대규모 자금을 투입하면서 민주당 내 보수 성향 표를 흡수하고 바이든·부티지지의 지지 기반을 잠식할 수 있다는 진단. 그 결과 1차 투표에서 확정되지 않을 위험이 커진다. 시장 영향: 1952년 이후 양당 모두 1차 투표 미확정 후보는 없었다. 후보가 불확실하면 시장이 결과를 선반영하기 어려워 불확실성이 7월 전당대회까지 이어질 수 있다. 후보가 두 명으로 좁혀지면 시장이 정상화된다. 대선 주기 패턴: 선거연도에는 민주당 승리 시 시장이 상대적으로 부진하고, 취임 1년차에는 반대로 강세가 나타나는 경향이 있다. 공화당은 반대 패턴. 이는 정책 기대와 실제 집행 간 괴리(삼권분립 제약)로 설명된다. 이 패턴은 후보가 누구든 유효할 것으로 봤다. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없고, 대선 주기에 따른 방향성만 제시.
다듬은 글
Of course, who becomes the Democratic presidential nominee is a very important issue this year and people worry about that every which way from black beans to bananas. But the fact of the matter is that this year for the Democrats it's a little bit different that's been in the past because in the initial convention vote, they disallow super delegate votes until there might be no nominee after a first vote and then you would get super delegate votes later in the convention.
And the Democrats don't have what are known as winner-take-all states, so if you get above minimum threshold of 15%, you get a proportionate amount of the delegates of that state. This cycle is a little bit complicated by the fact that there's a lot of entrants and no one democrat that's completely dominant.
Coming out of the blue in mid-November, Michael Bloomberg throws a new twist on all of this because he spends a lot of money and that money within the Democratic realm of ideology comes off the more conservative side of the ideological spectrum for Democrats and in that takes away some of the potential luster from some of the other more conservative Democrats and in that since there's a fair amount of the prior polling that's gone to Vice President Biden and also to Pete Buttigieg.
That runs the likelihood or the risk depending on how you want to view it, of further increasing the notion of no first ballot presumptive nominee. So the fear this time is that there's no presumptive nominee by the time you get to the end of the primary cycle and that then you get to the so-called brokered convention and if that's the case what that does to markets is it increases the uncertainty of who the nominee will be until later in the time period.
What normally happens in presidential election relative to market is the beginning of the year has increased political uncertainty which unsettles markets to some extent as there's a lot of squabbling over who nominees will be. This time that's only on the Democratic side because it's not a open race on both sides.
And then within the Democratic side you've got this wide array of candidates and then the possibility that this gets decided later than normal since we haven't had a non first ballot nominee for either party since 1952 and therefore we've always had a presumptive nominee. Once you get to presumptive nominees uncertainty starts to fall as the market can pre price the outcome of those two against each other.
But until then it can't and so you don't really fully get that falling and winnowing uncertainty. In this case until the middle of July when the Democratic convention occurs and then you'll run into more what I would view as market normalcy which is two candidates to market pre pricing the outcome of those two against each other leading to an outcome that gives us what we always get which is a certain winner and that winner is usually a little worse for the markets if it's a Democratic winner in November in the election year but then stronger in the inaugural year better for markets if the winner is Republican in the election year and then worse in the inaugural year and you can see that in the data of year by year returns of the election of Democrats and Republicans.
And the reasoning behind that I believe, not certain—always hard to disentangle these things—but the reasoning is, people tend to think the Republicans more pro-business, Pro free market and they get excited about that and then when when the Republicans elected and then when the Republicans in office they find out to their disappointment that in a governmental system with congressional judicial and presidential to three branches that that president can't do as much as they hoped the exact reverse happens with the Democrat.
The Democrat is often thought of as more anti-business, anti-market, anit-rich, etc., etc., bad in the election year then they get to the inaugural year and find out that he and maybe this time, she couldn't do as much as some people had hoped others had feared and so the negatives in the election year the positive surprise is in the inaugural year those two flip-flop between Democrat and Republican that's the likely outcome from here whether we get the feature of this Democratic nominee, that one or some other one.
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