저자: 손정의 · 한국인
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손정의 회장은 ASI(인공초지능)가 약 2035년 인간 뇌의 1만 배 수준에 도달할 것이라 예측하며, 이로 인한 인류 변화를 강조한다. 엔비디아는 저평가 상태라고 주장하며, 향후 AI 데이터센터 전력 400GW, 누적 capex 9조 달러, ASI가 GDP 5%를 대체할 경우 연간 약 9조 달러 가치가 가능하다는 시나리오를 제시한다. ARM은 모바일 칩 시장을 사실상 장악하고 있어 AI 중심 칩 회사로 성장할 것이라 본다.
다듬은 글
the most negative critics view that is only 5% change 95% unchange but trillion how do you recoup it's too much investment for many people's view I say I say it's still very reasonable capex $4 trillion net income shared by new GAA four companies will take $1 trillion profit many people will still doubt Nvidia is under vared M Yoshi's son is definitely recognized as a guru of investment that I get defeated I get laughed I get criticized that make me think harder I love more I think more I have lots of concern when I wake up I wake up with big smile I have done a gazillion interviews I've interviewed everyone except you but I've never had more interest in what I was going to ask than I'm asking you everybody here has at some stage you've got to ask him this you've got to ask him that so let's start with what is is interesting to you I know it's AI I know you are and the quote is I am obsessed by realizing artificial superintelligence are you still obsessed definitely I'm only focused on that what does that mean you're only focused on that explain well that would change the Mankind's future forever I want to make mankind future better happier Fantastic Future that's what I'm interested in so you what is the difference between AGI and Asi to those to those of us born of a different generation okay okay what's the difference yeah AGI definition is same level of as a human brain that's a AGI artificial general intelligence but people have a different point of view definition of artificial super intelligence how super know 10 times super or 100 times super my definition of ASI is 10,000 times super smarter than human brain that's my definition of ASI and that's coming in 2035 10 years 10 years from today 10,000 times smarter that's my prediction what what is different in that what will it do that we that that we should either look forward to or be worried about boss boss we should we should be looking forward to that of course we have to also be careful we have to regulate if such a super power comes and no regulation it could be super dangerous of course automotive industry was very very beneficial productive to human but we have a regulation same thing no no I don't I I with respect because we don't have anybody in the world who's willingly building or wanting to build automobiles that are dangerous when it comes to AI there may be State actors there may be independent actors that want to build AI that can be harmful to other people how can we guard against it how do you guard against it of course there is always some bad guy you know one 1% 2% of human are bad guys okay but 99% of human are actually good guys okay so the bad guy of course try to use AI for the bad intention however those bad guy not necessarily have enough Capital this is a massive capital a hundreds of billions of dollars of investment is required to make super intelligence the bad guy how do they sponsor there's not enough money to sponsor the bad guys you admitted in the past that you were not as involved in AGI frankly because you didn't have the money you ran out of money yes of course money is not unlimited I had to save some money for the big fight okay for the big opportunity now now I'm saving you know tens of billions of dollars so that I can make next big move do you know where that is I mean you may not know the companies they may not even have been started yet but do you have a very strong compass for the direction yes tell us I cannot that's what we're all here for no no I have I have I have my own view come on okay no no arm is our Core Company okay arm is has 99% or should I say honestly Almost 100% of market share of all the mobile phone chip 90% of any you know high-end uh AI a iot chip and all kinds of other chips so am is going to become a AI Centric chip company very soon so that's one thing okay but there are robotics that I'm super interested in these AI robotics not the traditional robotics the artificial super intelligence comes and Robotics come together that will be a tremendous you know uh uh product the fascinating thing about you is is you have been there you've done it you've had the great success you've had the follow on failures and you're doing it again no I in between I had many mistakes like weor and you know does it annoy you does it annoy you when we when people focus on we work which was financially big but relatively insignificant in the great scheme of your finances and yet everybody says oh Masa we work oh Alibaba it was lucky does that annoy you well you know people should have their own freedom of thinking you know I I learn uh more and more by my mistake and uh I almost went bankrupt twice uh right after the net Bubble Burst uh right during the reban crisis um I survived I actually lost 99% of our company's value uh but somehow I came back did you lose that value because you took on too much risk or was it foolish or bad luck I don't think you know I made that foolish mistake in the big sense net bubble crashed because people's view on the value of internet company uh exceeded while the True Value was still on on this process but at the end internet was not the bubble year 2000 was not bubble after that it's much bigger so my general uh Direction I don't regret now this is really important when we talk about AI because if you take for example Nvidia the number of people who will say oh Nvidia is in trouble oh nvidia's got from blah blah blah blah or AI really all that's happened is that the market has overvalued too soon that's a good question that's a good question many people will still doubt okay so I think Nvidia is undervalued what undervalued on what basis because the future is much bigger but the Market's concentrating as we heard in a panel earlier it's quar reports it's oh if if Nvidia tells us that it's going to be longer and slower we all get yeah yeah yeah andv is just one example right okay what about the total uh you know J AI future what is the value of the future is this a bubble today or not okay some critics the most negative guy says oh this AGI ASI in 10 years maybe only 5% is actually useful or you know replacing people's job but 95% still the same no change it takes time so I say okay let's accept the most negative critics view that is only 5% change 95% unchange but what is that you know ASI investment required to take okay 10,000 smarter than mankind how many how many gws we were talking about gigawatts just before me yeah I have predicted it would take 400 GW of AI data centers power 400 gaw that's bigger than total us electricity and it will require 200 million chip okay the cumulative capex 9 trillion dollar $9 trillion how do you recoup how do you recoup it's too much investment for many people's view I say I say it's still very reasonable Apex $9 trillion is not too big maybe too small you like to think big yeah yeah so let me say what is $9 trillion cumulative but if the 5% of GDP in 10 years from today replaced by ASI what is the number right 5% of G Global GDP is $9 trillion $9 trillion per year the if the ASI produce you $9 trillion per year cumulative investment of $9 trillion small money all right small money you recoup in one year for the total cumulative so that means $9 trillion capex investment you can depreciate one year Revenue that means like 50% profit 50% profit it is going to be $4 trillion net income per year $4 trillion net income shared by new GAA four companies will take $1 trillion profit each and you want to be one of them of course right before before we finish I just want to ask let's ask our AI friend here the question I posed to our AI friend is is Mason a guru when it comes to investing I asked this question can we have the answer please M Yoshi's son is definitely recognized as a guru of investment his early $20 million investment in Alibaba grew to $75 billion by 2014 contributing significantly to SoftBank success uccess however for some other Investments there have been mixed results thank you with quiet I've got a minute left I've got a minute left I want to ask you after both difficult times you went into a period of comple of reflection and contemplation you disappeared you thought you end up a mountain whatever what did you you learn about yourself well I say um it's a good experience good experience that I get defeated I get laughed I get criticized that make me think harder that make me think I have to be stronger and that's all good I love more I think more and uh before I go sleep I have lots of concern when I wake up I wake up with big smile ladies and gentlemen mastera thank you very much thank you very much
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