저자: KBS News · 외국인
요약 보기
삼성전자와 SK하이닉스가 사상 최대 실적을 내놓았지만 시장 분위기는 오히려 가라앉았다. 투자자들이 이미 실적을 예상하고 있었고, 주주환원에 대한 실망이 매도로 이어졌다는 분석이다. 삼성전자는 3분기 영업이익 107.4조 원으로 단일 분기 100조 원을 넘긴 첫 기업이 됐으나 주주환원 발표는 미온적이었다. SK하이닉스가 100조 원 규모의 대규모 계획을 내놓아 비교되면서 실망이 커졌다. 블룸버그는 노무라증권 애널리스트를 인용해 코스피가 AI 산업 투자의 핵심 바로미터이며, 기대가 높을 때는 작은 미달도 매도로 이어진다고 짚었다. 미국 증시에서도 빅테크의 AI 수익성에 대한 우려가 이어졌다. 알파벳은 클라우드 매출이 103% 늘었지만 영업이익이 기대에 못 미치고 잉여현금흐름이 약 90억 달러 적자를 기록해 12% 급락했다. 반면 마이크로소프트와 오라클처럼 실제로 돈을 버는 기업은 강세를 유지했다. 시장의 초점이 실질 수익성으로 옮겨가고 있다는 판단이다. 한국은행은 닷컴 버블 당시 광케이블 활용률이 2~5%에 그쳤던 사례와 달리 현재 데이터센터는 상황이 다르다고 설명했다.
다듬은 글
1. Why Stock Prices Fell Despite Record Earnings
SK Hynix reported its quarterly results the day before yesterday, and Samsung Electronics reported yesterday. Earnings hit record highs, yet the market mood sank noticeably yesterday. What was different? That's right: investors had already expected the earnings. Instead, I believe the selling pressure came from disappointment over shareholder returns.
Let's start with Samsung Electronics' profit. It recorded an all-time high. Third-quarter operating profit reached a staggering 107.4 trillion won, the first time any company has surpassed 100 trillion won in a single quarter. That's truly remarkable. But investors were quite disappointed, because the shareholder return announcement was somewhat lukewarm.
There are various theories in the market. Why is the company so quiet about shareholder returns? Some point to regulations on separating financial businesses, and others speculate about internal circumstances, but nothing has been officially confirmed.
Another factor is the comparison with SK Hynix. A day earlier, SK Hynix announced a large-scale plan worth 100 trillion won, while Samsung Electronics did not. As a result, I think the disappointment turned into selling pressure. Bloomberg used this kind of framing. Citing a Nomura Securities analyst, it explained that the KOSPI is a key barometer of investment in the AI industry.
The explanation is that when expectations are this high, any sign of even slight shortfall inevitably triggers selling pressure in the market. Yes. Overseas big tech companies are also continuing to report AI-related results, and concerns about tech stocks keep being raised. The decline on the New York stock market early this morning also seemed quite pronounced.
Yes, that's right. In the end, it comes down to whether companies are making money or not. Alphabet fell 12% on the last trading day. But as you know, Alphabet had already dropped sharply in after-hours trading following its earnings release, even though its cloud revenue grew 103% over the year.
The main reason its stock fell was that operating profit fell short of expectations. What stands out in particular is that free cash flow recorded a deficit of as much as 9 billion dollars. In short, it posted losses two quarters in a row, and doubts have arisen about whether it has the financial capacity to keep investing at a time when it should be turning a profit. Bloomberg also reported that concern is growing in the market that Alphabet could fall behind among AI competitors.
Conversely, companies that are making money saw their stock prices rise. Microsoft and Oracle are examples. Even after their earnings releases, they largely maintained strong momentum. Looking at this, I judge that the market's focus will shift toward whether companies actually make money.
Yes. Whether the profitability of AI revenue can last is something investors seem curious and worried about. What are your thoughts on this? Yes. Demand is solid, so I don't think there's a need to worry. A recent report from the Bank of Korea makes the reason clear.
The Bank of Korea cited the dot-com bubble as an example. Back then, optical communications companies believed the internet era was coming and invested heavily in fiber-optic cable. But when the true picture emerged, only 2 to 5 percent of it was actually used. Today, however, the situation is different.
Consider today's data centers. In the first half of this year, the vacancy rate of North American data centers was just 1.4 percent. More importantly, more than 80 percent of both upcoming and existing data centers are already reserved for use by specific companies. That means demand is very firm.
So there's no need to worry on this front. Samsung Electronics also mentioned this point when announcing its quarterly operating profit. It said HBM supply for next year is already completely sold out. Demand is robust. However, what deserves attention is that debt is rising rapidly. Looking at corporate bond issuance by the big five hyperscalers, it doubled compared with last year. All of this is debt. Second, orders are concentrated among a small number of companies. Anthropic and OpenAI account for 38 percent of total demand for these cloud services. So if these companies' revenues decline, demand could fall like dominoes. I'd advise caution on these points. Yes, understood.
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