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hey everyone me kevin here there has been a lot of hype surrounding tesla's battery day coming up this tuesday in this video i'm going to do a very simple roundup of what is going on and we're going to do that in such a way so that you do not need a chemistry degree or phd the implications are of what could happen this tuesday and then we're going to make a recommendation on whether or not to buy tesla stock sell tesla stock what am i doing and what do i think about the stock and what tuesday means for the stock long run we're gonna do all of that in this video after all remember elon musk told us this is going to be very insane we'll leave that conclusion up to you though and probably we'll just wait for tuesday for that but in the meantime let's set some expectations about what we should do before tuesday we're gonna hit the flow chart here and while i pull up the flow chart make sure you go down to the link below and by depositing okay let's go ahead and hit the news roundup a surrounding battery day so we know that battery day is on the 22nd and it follows the tesla annual shareholder meeting which will be held on the 22nd as well and you can watch the event by going to tesla.com 2020 shareholder meeting and they'll have a live stream there i'm sure there'll be plenty of live streams on youtube as well as far as some of the rumors that we have for battery day let's start with the actual batteries themselves what we're expecting based on leaked pictures and rumors and all of these crazy things and ideas and math and cylinder volumes and calculations and all this crap everything just put together here are the bottom lines we're expecting a potential larger battery and this could potentially be a more efficient battery if they deal with the heat that would build up in a larger battery larger battery more energy more potential heat but if they four to five x the size of this battery and they managed to reduce heat by potentially using a tablet's design and making some other changes then it's possible they could have as much as 10 to 15 x power per battery cell or per battery unit which could be incredible there's also a rumor that potentially the new battery packs will be designed with a modulus design see right now you kind of have batteries that go into these plastic modules and then you take these plastic modules and you stick them in the car's battery pack well if you eliminate the plastic module you just basically have a larger cell that plops right into the car's battery pack boom you've just reduced the amount of parks and parts needed in manufacturing you've sped up manufacturing you've reduced the weight of the overall vehicle and you are overall making the car way less which means you potentially have longer range with a more powerful battery which again means longer range so you get sort of this compounding effect going on there's also talk about this new battery that's coming out potentially being made up of a different chemistry uh you know there are rumors that maybe they're going to go with a dry technology versus a wet battery technology and i'm not a chemist and even if i was i'm not going to go into it here bottom line think faster production time more efficient production for a better bigger and higher quality longer lasting battery that they can make faster which hence the rumored name road runner project or the potential that tesla will have these new road runner lines at their gigafactories that could produce these batteries really bang fast way faster than previously uh there's also a slight suggestion that we may be moving to a cobalt free battery this is something that elon has mentioned in the past that that was a longer term goal and this reduces costs but also eliminates human rights concerns at least in part because 60 of cobalt right now is mined in congo and there are some serious child labor implications for that in fact apple and google were sued over exactly that so road runner production again that's just the nickname faster more scalable if they come up with this technology they could really copy and paste this over to different gigafactories and spread that technology basically making the batteries on site at different battery or gigafactories throughout the world remember we've got giga shanghai we've got giga berlin we've got the gigafactory in austin texas coming we've got the gigafactory in fremont and right now we do have a battery facility in nevada but if they can have a road runner assembly line at every giga facility then they don't have to ship the batteries around just put them together there could be a brilliant way to reduce transportation costs and increase the efficiency of well we produce the batteries here we put them in the car here boom we're done that takes a lot of steps out of the production and eliminates potential delays not a terrible idea they also acquired maxwell technologies and and some say that this company had the technology to come up with dry electrodes and ultra capacitors basically making things faster and last better and being able to uh well have more power or charge coming out of these batteries than ever before so what are some potential implications out of all this blue is kind of the like we could talk for hours chemistry wise about the blue here but i think we care about our money more than we necessarily care about the chemistry so let's talk implications and let's spend some more time there yellow implications first implication of a potential better stronger battery is maybe seeing what has been rumored as a plaid model s or maybe even a model x basically a higher end unit and this is actually not a bad idea because really right now i i've and i've said this in videos before i don't understand why you would buy a tesla model x and don't get me wrong i have an x but i got the x before there was a model 3 and before there was a model y i've had this thing since 2017 and i've seen the tesla car get better and better that's one of the reasons i i own as many stocks as i do i mean we're over 13 000 shares and not gonna what i'm super grateful of that but like me buying that tesla model x has been the reason for me going nuts on this stock uh seeing the evolution of it but when the tesla model y and the model 3 came out i thought to myself why why would anybody ever pay a hundred grand for the car anymore like you get the same thing for 40 and the three or you know 55 if you get some upgrades or the model y right it didn't make much sense to me it's possible that the plaid model s model x will take the same designs that they have throw the higher end batteries in there and boom now all of a sudden you have this uh ultra sort of high-end vehicle that maybe gets instead of an average of 300 miles a per you know charge per vehicle's charge maybe you could start seeing those longer ranges like that six to seven hundred range battery this would be very good because the lucid air which is a competitor that was just announced or sort of has been showcased more recently here uh has a or both a 517 mile max range and it's a much more expensive car i mean each of the lucid models are well over 80 000 right there in that s and x range and some of them are well over 150 000 so this would be a very good way for tesla to increase their revenue per vehicle on average and to take advantage of maybe that higher end consumer that they might be losing to the mercedes's and the bmws and well more recently the lucids not a terrible idea now obviously we might see longer ranges in the other vehicles as well however in my opinion this is very unlikely to happen because if they start bumping up the mile ranges from around 250 to 350 for the base model uh you know vehicles that they sell the ys and threes you're much more likely to see people say you know what i'm just gonna wait before i buy a battery or you know electric vehicle a battery ev or as some say a bev i'm gonna wait until you know we have a thousand mile cars so in other words if if tesla increases the base model mileage too soon they could alienate some of their customers who bought in early and that frustration could turn into more customers not converting to tesla yet in other words it it simply put here if they just kept the mileage the same for the base models but then at like the plaid models you know the high-end model x the high-end model s if they come out with those they say well if you want to pay for it if you want to pay you know 120 150 000 for a car again like when tesla first brought the s x out uh especially the higher end x the p 100 well no problem here you go here's the option for you but otherwise everybody else sure we might put the new batteries in the model 3 but it's still going to be a 300 mile range vehicle in which case guess who pockets the difference tesla does tesla puts more profit in their pocket if they have a more efficient battery without people necessarily getting much more range so increasing that margin is a very huge factor for battery day it's not so much a matter of you know changing the model 3 from what it is now to something it's not uh that will probably be reserved for the s and x whose sales have really been cannibalized by the model 3 and y so this battery day really has the potential of increasing profit margin this is number one this is going to go into our stock analysis this is very important and increasing profit per vehicle as they potentially bump up the higher end style vehicles again okay now let's talk about the million mile battery so it's widely anticipated that tesla is going to announce that their batteries can now last one million miles which previously you know well currently i should say uh the batteries are expected to last somewhere between 400 to 500 000 miles and there is a very big population of people like think back to the original prius adopters who said you know i don't know maybe i'm just not going to buy a prius because i don't want to have to spend eight grand on a new battery pack in four years once once i hit a hundred thousand miles was back in the day that the prius problem well this this tesla having the million mile battery especially if they warranty their batteries at a million miles i mean that that would be game-changing not only for semi-trucks but also just for people's impressions if people's impression is oh my gosh they warranty the battery for a million miles i ain't gonna do a million miles in my life like screw that whatever i'll go buy the car if they're that confident sure i'll buy it that conversion uh could be very very huge for tesla's bottom line by introducing a completely new customer base that has previously feared a transition to ev vehicles because of their sort of historical beliefs that yeah batteries just don't last long and they're expensive to replace but the million mile battery not just being good in that sense could also be very good because well if we have a million mile battery it means we'll be able to go through more charge and discharge cycles you know every time you charge up your phone and you drop it down to zero and you go back up and you go down every time you do that it's a cycle and batteries only have so many cycles but if you have a million mile battery presumably you have many many more cycles which might enable new things and new sort of features like vehicle to grid vehicle to grid is something that has been heavily rumored that basically you go plug your car in at night or it's plugged in during the day or whatever and then let's say you have a power failure because your state is on fire or something crazy like i don't know california then your car's battery could juice up your house for a couple days with battery no more gas electric charger to you know or electric generator to turn on and pour gas in and oh those things are a hassle to start and oil up anyway it's a fascinating idea and that could happen with a million mile battery but not just that i mean certainly the new battery technologies and chemistries will help with that but also think about robo taxis see if we start you know here i'm sitting recording this video if i sent my car out to go do uber and lyft for me because there was now full autonomy available and my car could go pick people up uh who who requested a tesla taxi on their iphone or their smartphone or whatever and they say well i want to go downtown perfect they punch in the address my car drives from here picks them up drops them off and comes back here that's cool i like that because i'm going to get some additional revenue from this car now but it's also going to come with this downside that my car is going to have a whole lot more miles on it and especially if i'm worried about batteries wearing out i might be less inclined to introduce my car to the robo taxi fleet well hey if we've got a million mile battery maybe i'd be much more okay with it so that's potentially another one of the implications here for the million mile battery uh certainly better battery technology could lead to a better and stronger powerwall that's sort of the at-home energy storage system that they have the big sort of backup battery you could have for your house which again will also help if there's a power failure although in many areas it's not like we deal with power failures all the time maybe that's more of a factor in areas that experience hurricane related outages like when i lived in south florida but even then i mean if i was out of power for three days a year that would be rare even within the 16 years that i lived in florida so uh you know the power wall though could benefit from stronger batteries maybe they'll increase the storage capacity of these while at decreasing costs and again increasing tesla's energy margin and this is something that goes into the stock's value as again as well of course semi-truck production obviously bigger batteries is better for semi-trucks and honestly this could be the nail in the coffin for hydrogen for the time being uh sorry nicola but seriously that's one of the big things is if we could get semi trucks to have let's say a thousand mile range or something like that and they could supercharge say 500 miles in a matter of an hour oh my gosh i mean that the battery technology could be revolutionary for uh long truck and sort of distance hauling absolutely incredible uh faster charging is also something that would be possible with larger batteries batteries that are capable of taking a larger uh charge without and faster without necessarily taking as much of a toll on a battery right now if you use a tesla supercharger you're actually doing a little bit more damage to your batteries than if you just use your regular slow charger at home so maybe that new chemistry could change that and then of course we get to competition in general with the overall broader vehicle market and that is that if this this battery technology can substantially decrease the cost of battery packs elon musk might be much closer to getting to his goal of producing a 25 dollar tesla battery technology currently cost somewhere around six to seven thousand dollars in a model three and that's approximated we don't know exactly what it is the cheapest model three right now is about thirty one thousand six hundred and ninety dollars if they end up having the cost of their battery packs to let's say three grand uh or maybe they even save three grand well that potentially increases their profit margin on a tesla model three by 10 now of course they could lower the cost of the car they could introduce a 25 000 vehicle uh which is probably more realistic that they're rather than cutting the cost they'll introduce maybe even that that sub 30 000 say around 25 000 vehicle this battery technology and these efficiencies certainly help get us in that direction a big thing that's been rumored but this is honestly probably four to five years out is this idea that tesla could end up creating a plane elon has frequently referred to a supersonic vertical takeoff plane that flies at very high altitudes where there's low air pressure and less drag on the plane itself and this might be the battery technology that ends up getting us to the efficiency that we need to actually operate an electric plane and these electric planes would also of course be significantly more quiet than other jets because well they're electric just think of electric cars versus other although if you break the sound barrier you're still going to have a sonic boom okay so now we have what we think sort of the rumors are then we have what the implications of this arm but now we need to talk a little bit about the stock price going forward and my thoughts for this so let's go ahead and pull this up we've got my tesla spreadsheet here this is the same one that i used last time and uh my expectation is that by the end of 22 we could expect to see somewhere around uh 2.5 million vehicles produced by tesla annually and that's because i believe they'll be able to produce 500 000 vehicles at the fremont facility 500 000 vehicles in shanghai 500 000 vehicles in berlin vehicles in austin and then the expectation is that there can be as many as one to two more vehicle-producing gigafactories produced over the next two years we'll see we're not there yet but if they just produce one more then they can get up and running to 2.5 million vehicles per year this is already being built so having one more in two years is not unreasonable all right if right now which revenue per vehicle right now is probably somewhere around 53 000 dollars per vehicle i'm going and i have been going with about 50 000 just because the model 3 has been lowering costs so i've been lowering that revenue per vehicle number but anyway if we multiply revenue per vehicle times total vehicle sales that gets us somewhere around 125 billion dollars in revenue right and i've explained some of these other things the lease revenues the service revenues and my metrics for these in other videos so i won't go heavily into those right now but what i can tell you that another thing that is very important right now is uh the margin right now tesla spends around 75 on their vehicle revenue on costs so when they're producing 125 billion dollars worth of revenue up here you know we're usually spending somewhere around 93 to 94 billion dollars but elon musk believes he can get this expense down to 70 if we go down to 70 that's a huge shift but one of the big catalysts for actually making this shift is the cost of batteries so we'll adjust that in a moment here and do just want to explain the rest of the spreadsheet and just say that i put in here a corporate tax rate of 28 and the reason i'm doing this is because right now we're at a corporate tax rate of 21 if biden is elected we could see this rate go to 28 to 35 percent if trump stays in we could see it go down to 15 so this is where we are now but we could see either of these and i'm so you know i i'd like to be a little bit more conservative i go towards the worst case so i'm putting 28 in here as a tax rate so to me at a 40 times earnings ratio at the end of 2022 to me it would be reasonable for the tesla share price to be around 743 dollars per share then that would work out to a return of i'm going to race this here because i have it running the math at three years it would work out to a return of about 29 per year between now and the end of 22 which is not terrible at all so here's the thing though how does the battery technology manipulate and change the stock valuation and that's the very important thing that we want to talk about right now we want to understand all of the the rumors that we heard today if the rumors are true and we end up getting some of these changes in efficiency and some of these expectations coming through remember those big changes i talked about while we were going through the rumors how is that going to affect the potential stock price right now our expectation is that the stock could be worth somewhere around 743 dollars by the end of 2022 but let's go into the spreadsheet here and let's make some changes so remember i mentioned if they come out with a plaid model of the s and x we're going to be capitalizing on a higher cost per vehicle or should i say revenue per vehicle audience that is a wealthier audience who's willing to spend more on a higher end vehicle i think a tesla roadster is going to be more expensive uh if there's certainly a tesla semi truck that's going to be substantially more expensive a plaid model s and x those are going to be more expensive if we just do a marginal like a tiny change here and we go from 50 000 per vehicle to 52 000 per vehicle that's that's barely a change up and i'm being conservative by going up with that because i do think there's going to be this you know pressure to continue to lower the cost of some of the vehicles especially if they introduce a 25 000 vehicle this average could start getting cut down fast so i'm not going to go super high on this i'm just going to take this up for the next two years two and two years in like three months uh by uh you know two thousand dollars so that alone takes the future share price from seven hundred forty three dollars per share to seven hundred seventy three dollars per share so that one change changing the revenue per vehicle by two thousand dollars changed the possible future stock value at the end of 2022 by a forty dollars not bad okay so we were at 743 but this is the bigger thing that we want to change right here let's go ahead and change this margin because if we change this margin we should see a pretty dramatic change now elon thinks we can get to 70 percent i think that's a little extreme i do think the battery technology could help us out uh substantially if we have battery packs that cost half of what they did before we could easily see uh you know another three thousand dollars shaved off of margin per vehicle and so let's say we take this margin to 72 percent we give ourselves a addition an additional three percentage points of margin because remember this was 75 percent and i'm taking it to 72 percent as an expense margin that's that means their profit per vehicle or profit margin is around 28 that's up from the 25 percent where they are now and that's still below the 30 percent elon thinks we might be able to get to long run well so if i just make those two changes that's it increasing revenue per vehicle by 2000 and uh increasing the margin or decreasing the expense expense margin to 72 percent three percentage points down and remember i still have that not so desirable corporate tax rate in here although that surprisingly doesn't make too terribly much of a difference we get to a potential future value of 893 dollars for this stock by the end of 2022 which on a present value basis over two years let me just verify i have this formula two years i have it at two years even though i wrote three years over here let's change that there we go over two years that means we could see a potential return on our money of around 42 percent between now and the end of 2022 now certainly no guarantees i mean this could happen or tesla could go bankrupt because nicola takes over i don't know crazier things have happened after all we've all been through well nine months eight and a half months of 2020 okay it's been insane so we never know exactly what's going to happen but the reality is there are some major catalysts here to see this stock price go up however when should we buy the stock what about the short term see here's the thing most events like apple events or tesla events are by the rumors sell the news this means the market rushes in buying the hype of the stock the stocks split or the stock cyber truck event happens or some sort of you know event comes to pass and as soon as the event is over the stock price ends up falling this would not be unexpected to see well exactly that happen again for tesla this week now no guarantees we have no idea what's going to happen in the short term long run the implications of what happens on tuesday are very very very important but i think the market's very likely to shrug off tuesday's announcement and not realize the impact that this is going to have on margin and revenue per vehicle if tesla introduces plaid versions and increases tesla's profit per vehicle and tesla's profit margin gets better because batteries are becoming cheaper and we're still getting better efficiency out of them this is going to be very very good for the future of our stock potential here but with battery day over we're going to have some major catalysts gone for the stock we're going to have s p inclusion over because well that didn't happen we're going to have the stock split hype over because well yeah that did what it did and then we're going to have the hype over battery day over that does leave the potential full self-driving announcement hype that might come later this year but there's a good chance in my opinion buying right before battery day or on battery day probably not the best idea i personally am going to hold all of my stocks that i have in tesla or all my shares and then we'll see what happens on battery day if the stock shoots up right afterwards no problem i'll sit on the sidelines let wall street digest what the heck is going on a little bit and then they'll probably get distracted by some other shiny object somewhere and they'll leave tesla and go invest in the next hot commodity because that's what wall street does they play to their investors and their investors don't want to feel like they're missing out so hedge funds go run around to the next shiny object i on the other hand would and i hate to say this because i own a lot of tesla shares i would like to see tesla share price fall after battery day coupled with some of the amazing announcements that we heard in this well video here because if we see that happen we're literally doing the best possible thing as investors we are going to take advantage of the information that we get on tuesday that says we are in the right place for the next two to four to six to ten years and we're taking advantage of the market being stupid and we're going to be able to buy in at a lower price that's my ideal as the stock keeps going up that's okay i'll keep holding for the time being there was part of me that was thinking maybe i should sell a little bit before battery day but i have to pay too much in capital gains so that doesn't make much sense and who knows you never you can really never predict the stock market in the short term but for me this thing goes down after battery day and we see some of these things i'm loading up thank you so much for watching hopefully you appreciated this breakdown and uh hopefully not too technical summary and we'll see you in the next video
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