저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 이 영상은 시장 방향 예측보다 분산투자(상관관계 낮은 수익원 다수 확보)의 원리와 개인적 철학을 다루며, 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측 발언은 없음. 분산투자의 핵심 주장: 상관관계가 낮은 좋은 수익원(return streams) 10~15개 이상을 확보하는 것이 '성배'라고 설명. 근거 설명: 위험 10%짜리 자산에 상관계수 약 0.6인 자산을 추가할수록 위험이 줄지만, 상관관계가 낮은 자산 5개 정도면 위험이 약 절반, 15~20개면 약 80% 감소해 위험 대비 수익이 약 5배 개선된다는 논리. 자산배분(베타)이든 개별 베팅(알파)이든 상관관계가 낮게 균형을 맞추는 것이 핵심. 유럽 경기 관련: 유럽 경기 사이클이 미국보다 뒤처져 경제에 여유(slack)가 있으므로, 유럽은 자산매입을 줄이더라도 금리 인상이나 대차대조표 축소는 당분간 하지 않을 것이라는 취지의 진단. 구체적 금리 방향 수치나 목표는 제시되지 않음. 철학·개인적 견해: 인생을 의존→책임→자유의 세 단계로 보며, 현재는 후계 세대가 성공하도록 돕는 전환기라고 설명. 진화와 자연법칙에 대한 관심, 자녀의 영향으로 시작한 자선(필란트로피)에 대한 생각, 중국에 자선 교육 연구소를 세우고 중국인이 주도하도록 한 사례를 소개. 추천 도서: 『역사의 교훈』(두란트), 『눈먼 시계공』/『강에서 에덴을』류의 진화 관련 도서(리처드 도킨스), 『천의 얼굴을 가진 영웅』(조셉 캠벨)을 언급하며 인생과 역사의 패턴을 이해하는 데 도움이 된다고 설명. 자막 품질이 낮아 일부 발언은 부분적으로만 확인 가능.
다듬은 글
g1 phase hongou seen da-da-da-da-da and uh Pocoyo team watching the trench auto telling you the transition remove Ray Dalio Sancho what I discovered is the holy grail of investing in other words if you do this you will make a fortune is to find 15 or more good uncorrelated return streams it doesn't even have to be 15 it could be 10 this is just the math of diversification this chart is meant to convey that so look at that just imagine you have a return that had a 10% risk one asset class or one return stream that has a 10% risk and for simplicity imagine it has a 10% return to this chart shows how risks change when you put in another asset class or another return stream and then a third and a fourth so if you have 60% correlated return straight let's say once the average stock is about 60% correlated with the average other stock so you add in a second stock and a third stock as you add in those numbers that shows how the risk reduction takes place and you could see that at about five you reduce your risk by about 15% and you could add in a thousand items a thousand return streams a thousand asset classes and you will not reduce your risk much but look what happens when you add and uncorrelated and by the way uncorrelated isn't as good as it can get because you can get negatively correlated the bottom chart and get out of your way the bottom chart shows the zero correlation and how risk is reduced by that so it shows like at five uncorrelated assets five good things that perform differently you cut your risk in half at about 15 and 20 you cut your risk by about 80% that means you raise your return to your risk ratio by a factor of five there's no way that you can get no matter how good of a decision-maker you can't get an investment that's going to be five times as good and be confident in it so that's the power of diversification and that's what I would can say the Holy Grail five 10 or 15 good uncorrelated return streams so whether you're creating a portfolio of betas in other words an asset allocation mix or a portfolio of alphas that means all the different bets you're going to make the key is to balance those well in an uncorrelated way so that in a nutshell are my timeless and universal economic and investment principles you know all the things you have auto shut unless you come you go sue me handle what you can't - see that so the European just to put it in the perspective of what I was describing as the template is that the European cycle is a bit behind the u.s.
cycle so that there is more slack in the economy and as a result of the more slack we have a situation in which there's less tightening we're moving into a situation now where in Europe they're going to start buying less or maybe none of those purchases anymore they'll taper those purchases off but they won't unlike the United States which is letting the balance sheet decline and that essentially produce the sale they won't do that now and they won't raise interest rates and as a result the term structure of interest rates will remain very similar to where it is except for the fact that when you look at those rates you said life is an audible struggle and and life is all about evolution what is your struggle now my struggle right now is to transition well as I said there are three phases in one's life I think in the first phase of your life you're dependent on others your learning going to school second phase of your life you're working others are dependent on you you're trying to be successful as you go to your third phase of your life I think it becomes very natural that there's not I don't need to be more successful the most important thing I could do was help other people be successful think about it as a parent at that generation a lot of people in the room probably can think what did the parents want most for that child who's now an adult they want that person to be successful on their own that becomes the highest priority so my number one objective is to transition well because I know that by transitioning well then I will also have the freedom freedom of obligation and that go into my third which is basically to just be free of obligation into and enjoy all of my adventures I'll still play my game I love the markets I'll still do other things that I love even us as humans and look at the greater forces man is only one of 10 million species mankind is 200,000 years old nothing by comparison to that so when you look at the forces you look to me the laws of the universe the laws of everything are to evolve you know since the Big Bang everything is evolving and so to watch those laws is a beautiful thing so I think myself you know we enjoy naturally instinctually to evolve and then to contribute to evolution so I think the beauty of the system and evolution is an amazing thing to behold and to be in harmony with it is an exciting thing NASA was on to coefficient water so in between e3 tada open season total farm in the zoo sleep now only number we wonder things on pigeon sample toads oddity non-farm in the zoo uh I it's been many many many years since I read an investment book it's preventing me but I do remember three books that I think come to mind is just being invaluable is one is lessons of history which was written by these great historians the couple of the Durant's will and Ariel Durant and they studied five thousand years of history and both thousands of pages in history and then they boiled them down to a hundred and four page book called lessons of history and and see the patterns and I thought that's a great book I saw another one is a river from Eden but written by Richard Dawkins and it's a brief book and about evolution and it explains how evolution has worked and worked because that's the evolution is the laws of all species in north of nature and that's been wonderful and then another book was hero of a thousand faces I Joseph Conrad Campbell hero of a thousand faces looks at the patterns of a thousand different heroes through wall history and what does that life pattern that shows what people go through and so on and it's been fascinating and it helps to put people's lives in perspective so those are the three books that I think are really quite extraordinary great books but I you know I do like to read other books I've you know sapiens and you know there's a lot of I like to read about neuroscience and evolution nature I think the I I think it's just to be clear I think what I've done let's put aside what I'd done and let's maybe talk about some general principles about philanthropy is that okay yeah so first I think I want to be clear I don't think philanthropy is you either want to do it or you don't want to do it and you don't have to do it and it's not an obligation and it's not one of those things in which you say oh you're good because you're doing philanthropy or not you either feel good about it or not I think that there is a natural evolution I particularly for me I didn't have any money growing up and then I earned money and so I've gone from having nothing every step along the way to having and I know the difference is and so incremental II when you acquire money you've it almost becomes decadent to spend so much on yourself not while other people are suffering or there's a problem and so I think for me it's just the feeling of that kind of empathy some people want to do you know we wanted to help because my son Mike my son taught me philanthropy just to be clear I didn't teach him philanthropy my son when he was young found these students and I was these children and I was in the business of making the money and and he taught me and you helped to teach me about that philanthropy so I would say that you know at various stages in life if you feel it you just have to know how to do it well and philanthropy is like a skill it in order to do it well but what occurred to me and my son and at the time was that us bringing money to China was not the most important thing that we could bring as much as education to China to teach the professionalism in terms of philanthropy because it's a skill and so we as a result I wanted to set up an institute to help teach people about philanthropy and so we in that partnership we decided to do that and we wanted to make it a majority run by Chinese because it should be a Chinese thing to teach philanthropy and to know about it and it is important we have an institute that if you want to learn we will you know will teach you philanthropy thank you thanks to mr. Wong who now runs that Institute you
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