저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 경기 회복은 착시이며 연준의 양적완화가 계속돼 더 큰 경제위기와 달러 위기가 올 것이므로 금을 보유해야 한다고 주장한다. 금 전망: 2013년 하락은 12년 연속 상승 뒤의 조정일 뿐이며 강세장은 아직 많이 남았다고 본다. 2013년 금광주를 매도했던 사람들은 되사기 어려울 것이라며 자신은 2014년 채굴 섹터 비중을 2013년보다 크게 보유하고 있고 신고가 경신 시 더 유리하다고 말한다. 연준·통화정책: 연준은 테이퍼링을 하더라도 양적완화를 늘릴 것이며 금리는 0%를 유지할 것으로 본다. 옐런은 저금리·케인스주의 성향이라 경기부양 압박 속에 돈을 더 찍을 것이라고 예측한다. 미국 경제: 주식·부동산 상승은 좋은 경제가 아닌 잘못된 통화정책의 결과이며 2014년 GDP·고용 기대는 실망스러울 것이고 미국은 재침체로 갈 것이라고 본다. 골드만삭스의 금 1000달러 하락 전망은 틀렸다고 평가한다. 달러·환율: 2013년 달러는 상대적으로 괜찮았으나 장기적으로 약세가 예상되며 이로 인해 연준이 정책을 바꾸도록 강제될 것이다. 투자자는 달러에서 벗어나야 한다고 조언한다. 시기는 2014~2015년 가능성이 높다고 보나 언제인지는 확실치 않다. 아시아 수요: 아시아·신흥국의 실물 금 수요가 계속 늘 것이며 투기 세력은 금을 소진하고 있다고 본다. 정부들은 부채 때문에 디폴트 대신 인플레이션을 택할 것이고, 부는 채권자에서 채무자로 이전된다고 설명한다. 리스크: 2008년 금융위기처럼 큰 위기가 예고되어 있으나 투자자들은 대비가 되어 있지 않다. 시점에 대한 확신은 없다.
다듬은 글
welcome to cambridge house live i'm bridgette anderson and i'm joined by peter schiff the ceo of euro pacific capital author of many books welcome peter nice to see you nice to see you again let's start off talking about gold everybody wants to know what's happening with gold you're taking a longer term view so when is it going to go up well it's been going up i mean we had a down here in 2013 in fact it's one of the biggest down years gold's had but you have to remember that that followed i think 12 consecutive up years i think it's interesting too because you've got a lot of people during those 12 years that we're telling people not to buy gold it's a way it's not going to go up and now they're there saying i told you so you know they haven't really they forget about the other 12 years and the fact that even though we were down gold still got up a lot during that time period and i think from where we are today i think the bull market has a long way to go i think that the fundamental factors that you know the gold doubters have been ignoring all along i think those factors are even stronger than ever i think what happened in 2013 is some of the people who had been very skeptical about gold uh they got out they came in maybe 2010 2011 they finally got into the market and they all decided at one time that they didn't want to be there and i think it's all based on the false expectations of a u.s economic recovery which i think is an illusion i don't think we have legitimately that we're seeing a recovery right now now i think we're seeing a rise in stock market we've seen a rising real estate market but that's not because of a good economy it's because of bad monetary policy it's the same bad monetary policy that resulted in the 2008 financial crisis i think we're going to have a bigger economic crisis coming and i you know i i don't think that you're going to get tighter monetary policy people are afraid that the fed is going to take away qe and somehow that's going to be a negative for gold i think the fed is going to increase the amount of quantitative easing it's doing uh before the end of the year i think it's going to be even even before the end of the year yeah i think i think the fed is going to do that particularly under a janet yellen i mean you know yellen is very much a believer in in cheap money and inflation and keynesian economics and she's going to be under a lot of pressure to try to stimulate the economy to create jobs and she can't do that by printing money but she doesn't know that and you know that's what your current tapering is going to be enough then no no i don't even think they're going to you know taper i mean they may do it in the short run they may go from 85 billion a month to 75 billion a month but that's still a very aggressive monetary policy that's plenty of inflation and interest rates are still at zero but i think a lot of the economic numbers are going to deteriorate i think a lot of the expectations for 2014 are gonna are not gonna come out i mean you're gonna have a lot of disappointed investors uh forecasters when the gdp numbers and the employment numbers are not as robust as people think and that's going to put more pressure on the fed and yellen to do something about it and the only thing that they can do not that it's actually going to work but it's going to be print more money do more qe so that's what they'll do do you think timing plays into this at all you know looking at the presidential cycles and things like that and looking at where we are now in the mandate do you think that plays into any of the economic indicators not really although i do think that we've got a long time before the next presidential election you know you're still what three years away you've got the 2014 uh midterm elections coming up but i don't i don't think that's really going to have much of an impact although i know that there's there's always an election around the corner so true because of that politicians are always focused on that election not the long term and so they always want a quick fix and so we're always going to be willing to trade um long-term pain for some short-term political gain so that that's what the politicians want they want another fix and that's why we're going to get this qe because the economy is going to be weak going into 2014 and if you recall for the last three or four or five years everybody says we're going to have a big recovery they're always optimistic on the second half of the year going into the year and and those that optimism uh never pans out because what the fed has done did not solve any of our problems we've made our problems worse america is more leveraged we're in deeper debt now than we were before the 2008 financial crisis in fact you're telling people to get out of the u.s dollar as soon as possible yeah and i've been saying that for for a long time and 2013 was a relatively good year for the dollar i mean at least relative to some of the commodity currencies like the canadian dollar the australian dollar it went down a little bit against the euro against the pound although it rallied against the yen there was a lot of help there from the bank of japan but i think the big story for the dollar is going to be weakness and that's ultimately what is going to force the fed to end these policies the fed is going to continue to inflate continue to do qe keep interest rates at zero until it can't do it anymore and the only thing that's going to force the fed to act responsibly is going to be a currency crisis a us dollar crisis but before we get that they'll keep on doing what they're doing well do you think that's imminent this currency crisis then well imminent meaning tomorrow or no okay let me put that uh it's shorter term and do you think we're going to see it in 2014 or 2015.
there's a very high probability that we will i mean i do think it's imminent in the long term scheme of things right but i don't know if it's next week next month next year but you know as far as you know a long-term investor's time horizon this is an event that you have to be worried about you have to be prepared for it i mean it could have happened last year but it didn't so we made it through 2013.
but that doesn't mean we're going to make it through 2014. so you talk about investors preparing and that means getting out of the us dollar and and where to then i mean so to gold obviously i want to talk a little bit about more about gold that there's been a lot of focus on asia buying up a lot of the world's gold what impact do you think that's having well i mean it's going to have a bigger impact over time because right now a lot of these speculators are satisfying that demand because you have a lot of the investor money that got in earlier they've been selling out and so that's been supplying uh the gold for the long-term buyers asian buyers but the speculators are going to run out of gold if they haven't already run out and but the real physical demand around the world particularly in the emerging markets is going to continue to grow because what are they going to do with their surpluses where are they going to put their savings they can't put it in u.s dollars because we're going to inflate it away so they have to invest their surpluses somewhere you know they can look at other fiat currencies but do they want euros do they want japanese yen there's really no alternative to gold and i think more and more people are going to return to gold as a store of value uh as you know money and reject these government fiat currencies because all these major governments are determined to continue to inflate because they you know you've got all this debt and nobody wants to allow default even though that would be healthy it would be better economically but that would be the way to go yeah but politically nobody wants it so but if you have debt that you can't repay and you don't default then the only way out is to inflate and so that's what's happening and so massive amounts of wealth are going to be transferred from creditors to debtors and as more and more creditors figure this out and they don't want to be you know slaughtered they need to do something about it and the way you protect yourself from that kind of inflation is to own real money to own gold and not own the currencies that are being inflated do you feel like you missed out a little bit last year when you watch the price of gold go down though when you watch the some of the markets go up yeah well you know we are invested in the market so you know we caught some of the upside although not as much because you know it seems like in 2013 uh you know the more foolish you were the more money you make because it's like the stocks that have the least amount of value are the ones that went up the most so you had to be willing to be an idiot to make a lot of money and sometimes you know i have a hard time doing that but i i do think that yeah if i had it sold some of my gold stocks going into 2013 i could have bought them all back you know for a lot less money and you know hindsight is 20 20.
i didn't do that uh but ultimately i think the people who are going to regret what they did with their gold stocks are going to be the people who sold because i think most people who sold are not going to buy back at least you know not at lower prices they might chase the market when it's higher but i i like what i own at least i wasn't levered up so i didn't have any margin calls i wasn't forced to sell any stocks at you know fire sale prices i'm sure there are some people who you know really bet big and unfortunately you know they were in a position where they they might have had to sell some stocks that they would have preferred to have held on to but you know i'm not going to follow the crowd just because the crowd is doing something foolish and they're expecting a greater fool you know to take them out of their position i think if you stick to the fundamentals you're going to make money in the long run and i looked at 2013 more as an opportunity because i own personally i have a much bigger position in the mining sector going into 2014 that i had going into 2013.
so if we go back and make new highs i mean it's going to be a lot better for me this time around now the question is will i sell you know i've ridden a lot of these stocks up and down twice now you know uh and so we'll see i mean i'm still i'm still i think i'm determined to hold on so what are you seeing that on the mining sector well there's look there's a lot of opportunity there yeah there's some consolidation but also you know because of all the the negativity i mean the consensus is so overwhelming that gold and silver are dead right they're just going to go down that the mining sector is having a hard time they're you know they're not investing in capex or research and development they're laying people off look what's happening with the employment numbers in canada in australia that's one of the reason that these currencies are going down is people are anticipating that the layoffs continue and they think that the central banks are going to come with monetary stimulus but i think that's all wrong i think that the layoffs aren't going to continue because as the price of gold starts to rise the layoffs are going to stop and eventually they're going to start hiring some of these people back when the market moves up enough that the confidence comes back because i think that this is was a huge shake out in 2013.
i think just about everybody's got it wrong i mean goldman sachs is still out there saying goal's going down to a thousand because the fed is going to continue to taper as the u.s economy improves well goldman's got it completely wrong the u.s economy isn't going to improve it's going to relapse into recession the only thing standing between the u.s in recession is quantitative easing zero percent interest rates and you know i've been saying for years when you have an economy that lives by qe it dies by qe you cannot take it away it's not like you know you can just achieve some kind of escape velocity and then the fed can dial it back our economy is completely dependent on that qe and in fact just like any drug we need more and more qe to stay high so the fed is going to figure this out under janet yellen who by the way is the first democratic fed chairman you know greenspan was appointed uh by ronald reagan in 87 and then you know uh bernanke by bush so and they were pretty bad well imagine how much worse this democrat uh appointed by barack obama is going to be and you think it's going to be worse absolutely absolutely look if you if you go back and you look at when alan greenspan left in 2006 after being fed chairman for so long everybody was praising him he was the maestro and everybody was excited about ben bernanke he's you know he's his protege he's gonna follow these great policies we were two years from the 2008 financial crisis nobody saw it alan greenspan's bubble blew up on ben bernanke's watch then what did ben bernanke do he repeated all the mistakes he blew an even bigger bubble with even more reckless monetary policy now he's getting out of dodge just in time janet yellen's coming in everybody thinks bernanke was a hero and they're very excited about yellen because she's going to follow in his footsteps yeah she's going to inherit a bigger bubble it's going to burst on her watch and do you think investors are prepared for that no they're not prepared for it at all just like they weren't prepared for it in 2006 just about everybody was blindsided by the financial crisis even though it should have been obvious this crisis that's coming should be even more obvious yet even more people are going to be blindsided because if you remember even in 2006 gold was still rallying back then there was there was still a healthy amount of skepticism about what the central bank was doing now most of the skeptics have been silenced they've all signed on everybody believes that the central bankers have got this thing you know solved and so there are even fewer people worrying about a crisis now than there were in 2006 even though it's a bigger crisis well investors uh definitely have got some interesting times ahead don't you think well i guess that's a chinese proverb right peter thanks very much for your time i appreciate it you
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